Alaska:  Sen. Murkowski’s Tenuous Lead:  A new Alaska Survey Research organization poll (10/19-22; 1,276 AK likely general election voters; text to online) forecasts a tight US Senate election between incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) and former state Director of Administration Kelly Tshibaka (R). 

The actual vote is projected to break 41-39-16-4% with Sen. Murkowski leading Ms. Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro, and Independent Buzz Kelley.  Such a result would eliminate the fourth-place finisher who has already withdrawn from the race and endorsed Ms. Tshibaka.  The first RCV round would eliminate Ms. Chesbro by a closer 41-40-17%.  The final RCV round between Sen. Murkowski and Ms. Tshibaka would then break the incumbent’s way, according to the ASR poll, 56-44%.  Therefore, while Sen. Murkowski will likely not reach an outright victory in the actual vote, she is positioned to fare well under the ranked choice system.

Connecticut:  Momentum for Sen. Blumenthal:  Last week we saw a Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey that found Sen. Richard Blumenthal’s (D) lead over Republican nominee Leora Levy shrinking to 49-44%.  Countering this data is a new survey from Connecticut based Quinnipiac University (10/19-23; 1,879 CT likely general election voters) that restores Sen. Blumenthal to a 56-41% advantage, similar to what the September Q-Poll produced.  The latter data is more consistent with other polls of this race, suggesting that the Fabrizio Lee survey may be an outlier.
 
New Hampshire:  Not Quite Over:  Three recent pollsters find that the New Hampshire Senate race, one many Republicans conceded to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) once retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) won the September 13th Republican primary, may not yet be clinched.  The three pollsters, all surveying the Granite State electorate within the October 17-23 period with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 727 likely NH general election voters, finds Sen. Hassan’s lead dwindling to between one and three percentage points.
 
Fabrizio Ward & Associates, Emerson College, and Insider Advantage, found respective 49-47%, 48-45%, and 48-47% results.  Such results suggest this race is headed back to toss-up status.
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AK-AL:  Rep. Peltola’s Strong Lead:  The aforementioned Alaska Survey Research organization poll (see Alaska Senate above), while projecting a tight result for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) sees the opposite trend for August special congressional election winner Mary Peltola (D-Bethel).  The House poll suggests that Rep. Peltola has a chance to win outright opposite former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, businessman Nick Begich, III (R), and Libertarian Chris Bye.  Even if she does advance into the RCV round, it also appears that she would easily beat both Palin and Begich in one-on-one contests.

The ASR polling results find the initial vote cutting 49-26-21-5% for Rep. Peltola, Ms. Palin, Mr. Begich, and Mr. Bye, respectively.  Obviously, the polling margin of error could mean that Rep. Peltola wins at this point since she is so close to the majority mark.  Should Rep. Peltola fail to reach 50%, she would then likely advance to a final RCV round with Ms. Palin.  The poll projects that the Congresswoman would win the one-on-one pairing with 57% of the Ranked Choice Vote.

MN-1:  Rep. Finstad Expands Lead:  August special congressional election winner Brad Finstad (R-New Elm/Rochester) has jumped out to a nine-point lead in his re-match race with retired Hormel Corporation CEO Jeff Ettinger (D) according to a just released Survey USA poll (10/20-23; 563 MN-1 likely general election voters).  In what many believed to be a toss-up general election campaign, this study producing a 46-37% advantage for Rep. Finstad suggests that the race is clearly leaning to the Republican side.
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New York:  Judge Strikes Down Ab Ballot Pre-Election Counting:  New York is already one of the slowest ballot counting states, and a judicial ruling rendered on Friday will likely lead to an even slower count.  The legislature and Governor had enacted a law that allowed election officials to count the received absentee ballots before the election with the caveat that no results were released.  The judicial ruling struck down this new law, saying such a process is unconstitutional under New York law.  Therefore, we can count on not receiving final returns until some six weeks post-election day.
 
Target Smart:  First Early Vote Report:  The Target Smart data organization has released their first major report highlighting the earliest of early voting figures (through October 19th).  Though the pre-election ballot casting cycle still has multiple days remaining for the 45 states that employ some form of an early voting procedure, we already see turnout figures very similar to the 2020 partisan voting pattern.

In the Senate battleground states, Target Smart has recorded over 2.7 million ballots already cast.  This is just under one-third the number of people who voted early in these states back in 2020 and already a half-million more than the total early votes cast in the 2018 midterm. 
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At this point, it appears that the partisan early vote complexion nationally and in the battleground states is similar to what we saw unfold in 2020.  Therefore, if Republicans are headed for a significant bump in this midterm turnout, it is not yet evident from the preliminary early voting reports.
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​Nevada:  Trending Laxalt:  The latest CBS News/YouGov poll (10/14-19; 1,057 NV likely general election voters; online panels) finds former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) regaining a one point lead, 49-48%, over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in the race now featured as the most likely Democratic seat that potentially flips to the GOP.   The CBS/YouGov poll marks the eighth of the most recent nine polls projecting Mr. Laxalt to a small lead.  Considering there is likely a Republican undercount, chances are good that Mr. Laxalt’s edge is slightly larger.
 
The YouGov pollsters also tested the state’s tight Governor’s race.  There, Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R) are tied at 48%.  Nevada becomes a critical state in determining the Senate majority along with deciding a key Governor’s race.  The state also features three lean Democratic seats in Las Vegas, all of which are competitive and each has some chance of flipping to the GOP, as well.
 
North Carolina:  Budd’s Breathing Room:  The new Trafalgar Group poll is following the East Carolina University survey that projected breathing room for US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) in his open seat Senate race against former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D).  The Trafalgar data (10/16-19; 1,081 NC likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) gives Mr. Budd a 48-44% lead over Ms. Beasley.  A few days earlier, the ECU data projected a 50-44% Budd margin. 
 
Until these pollsters detected a swing toward Mr. Budd, the two candidates had been tied or separated by one percentage point in the last six consecutive polls from six unique pollsters.  Though the race is still rated a toss-up, a break toward Mr. Budd could be forming.
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​CO-8:  As Tight as Predicted:  Colorado’s new 8th Congressional District that stretches from the Denver suburbs north to the city of Greeley was drawn to be a hotly contested CD.  A new Global Strategy Group survey for the Yadira Caraveo (D) campaign (10/11-16; 600 CO-8 likely general election voters; live interview) finds Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County) claiming a two-point, 46-44%, edge over Ms. Caraveo a Democratic state Representative from Adams County. 
 
The race margin hasn’t changed since Global Strategy Group’s released August poll that also found Ms. Kirkmeyer holding a two point advantage.  Expect this contest to go down to the wire.

​Oregon:  Drazan Still Holding Top Spot:  The three-way Oregon gubernatorial campaign, featuring strong Independent candidate Betsy Johnson, who served as a Democrat in the state legislature for 20 years, is one of the nation’s most interesting campaigns.  More race data is now available as a Hoffman Research Group survey (10/17-18; 684 OR likely general election voters; live interview) produces a result that continues to post Republican Christine Drazan, the former state House Minority Leader, to a two-point, 37-35% lead over ex-state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D) with Independent Johnson dropping to 17% support. 
 
The negative campaign ads have taken their toll on all of the candidates.  Ms. Drazan fares best of the three contenders with a favorability index of just 35:32% favorable to unfavorable.  Ms. Kotek is upside down at 31:43%, while Ms. Johnson posts a 23:32% ratio.  If successful in the three-way race that features no runoff election, Ms. Drazan would become the state’s first Republican Governor since Victor Atiyeh left office in January of 1987.

Arizona:  More GOP Movement:  The Trafalgar Group is reporting on their latest Arizona survey (10/16-17; 1,078 AZ likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) that finds venture capitalist Blake Masters (R) pulling to within one point of Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly (D), 47-46%.  This race is closing and the Trafalgar poll is not an outlier.  Since October 10th, four research studies have shown chronological deficits for Masters of only 3, 4, 2, and now 1 percentage point. 
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Additionally, Trafalgar finds former newscaster Kari Lake (R) now running as the open gubernatorial race leader over Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D).  In this poll, Ms. Lake carries a 49-46% edge, again consistent with recent trends that other pollsters also detect.

​OH-1:  Rep. Chabot Drops Behind:  Despite state legislative Republicans drawing the congressional map, veteran GOP Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati), due to political changes within the Queen City, saw his new district become more Democratic.  The FiveThirtyEight organization rates the new OH-1 as D+3, which is the exact margin a new Impact Research internal poll revealed. 
 
The IR survey, conducted for the Greg Landsman (D) campaign (10-13-16; 504 OH-1 likely general election voters; live interview & text), posts the Cincinnati City Councilman to a 49-46% lead over Rep. Chabot.  While the turnout model may provide a different result than what this poll finds, we can count on a close result coming here in November.