​A day before the 4th District results are scheduled to be certified as official, freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) conceded defeat to challenger Burgess Owens (R), a retired NFL football player and Salt Lake City businessman.  Provisional vote counting ended on Saturday, pushing Mr. Owens’ margin over the Congressman to 2,139 votes, which was enough for Mr. McAdams to make his public statement.  

​In a race that is due to be certified as final tomorrow, it appears that challenger Burgess Owens (R), a retired NFL football player and Salt Lake City businessman, has defeated freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City).  Provisional vote counting ended on Saturday, pushing Mr. Owens’ margin over the Congressman to 2,095 votes.  

The latest update coming from another close race in UT-4 now includes all votes except provisional ballots in Salt Lake County.  Approximately 12,000 remain, but not all of those come from the 4th District.  The CD encompasses about 57% of the county’s population.
​
Challenger Burgess Owens (R) still leads Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) now by 1,616 votes and it’s estimated that another 8-10,000 votes remain.  Not all of the provisional ballots will be accepted.  State Elections Office officials estimate that the county will complete the counting process sometime on Saturday and then the official vote canvass of the entire district will begin. 

​Another uncalled race received an update last night, when almost 12,000 votes were added to the count.  The addition didn’t change the result much.  Challenger Burgess Owens (R) still leads Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) by 1,697 votes, or just 1/2 of a percentage point.  It is estimated that another 8-10,000 votes remain.  If so, Rep. McAdams would have to record approximately 55% of the remaining ballots to overcome Mr. Owens’ lead.  At this point, Rep. McAdams has only 47% of the vote to his credit.  Two minor party candidates have attracted an aggregate 5.5% of the vote.  

Since seven House races were called yesterday, we now see 16 congressional contests called, eight of which are in New York and three in California. 
 
Below is the list of the outstanding races and their current status:
 
AK-AL:  Rep. Don Young (R)
Status:  59.2%; Reporting 69%
R+ 43,761 votes

CA-21:  David Valadao (R)
Status:  51.4% ; Reporting 71%
R+ 4,041 votes

CA-25:  Rep. Mike Garcia (R)
Status:  50.0%; Reporting 86%
R+ 159 votes

CA-39:  Young Kim (R)
Status:  50.6%; Reporting 97%
R+ 4,168 votes

IA-2:  Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Status:  50.0%; Reporting 100%
R+ 40 votes

IL-14:  Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
Status:  50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 3,524 votes

LA-5:  Luke Letlow (R)
Status:  33.1%; Reporting 100%
Runoff - Dec 5

NY-1:  Rep. Lee Zeldin (R)
Status:  61.3%; Reporting 100%
R+ 65,120 votes

NY-2:  Andrew Garbarino (R)
Status:  57.8%; Reporting 100%
R+ 44,898 votes

NY-3:  George Santos (R)
Status:  50.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 4,171 votes

NY-11:  Nicole Malliotakis (R)
Status:  57.9%; Reporting 95%
R+ 37,158 votes

NY-18:  Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Status:  51.0%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,896 votes

NY-19:  Rep. Antonio Delgado (D)
Status:  50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,893 votes

NY-22:  Claudia Tenney (R)
Status:  54.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 28,394 votes

NY-24:  Rep. John Katko (R)
Status:  58.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 55,102 votes

UT-4:  Burgess Owens (R)
Status:  47.6%; Reporting 95%
R+ 1,780 votes

13 of 16 R Leads 

Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who scored a 51-42% victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport).  Ms. Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended.  In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected with a very close win (49.6 – 48.5%) over GOP challenger John James.
 
The two calls mean that the high number for the Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51.  The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.
 
In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100% of the vote being received.  Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats in 15.  This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.
 
Below is a list of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading.
 
Senate
 
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - Status: 62.3%; Reporting: 50%
Georgia-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) - must reach 50%;  Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 97%
Georgia-B: Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - Status: 32.5%; Reporting: 96%
                      Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - Status: 26.2%; Reporting: Runoff
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Winner; Status: 51.1%
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) - Winner; Status: 49.6%
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - Status: 48.7%; Reporting: 93%
 
House
 
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) - Status: 63.3%; Reporting: 53%
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) - Status: 52.1%; Reporting: 92%
AZ-6: Hiral Tipirneni (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 76%
CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) - Status: 52.9%; Reporting: 87%
CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) - Status: 53.3%; Reporting: 37%
CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Status: 51.4%; Reporting: 42%
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 77%
CA-39: Young Kim (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 89%
CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 93%
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) - Status: 52.2%; Reporting: 51%
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Status: 51.2%; Reporting: 100%
IA-2: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 100%
IL-14: Jim Oberweis (R) - Status: 50.1%; Reporting: 100%
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Status: 51.8%; Reporting: 100%
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 99%
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) - Status: 53.1%; Reporting: 99%
MI-5: Dan Kildee (D) - Status: 54.3%; Reporting: 100%
MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 97%
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) - Status: 48.6%; Reporting: 100%
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 100%
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 75%
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 85%
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) - Status: 49.7%; Reporting: 65%
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) - Status: 61.3%; Reporting: 99%
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R) - Status: 58.1%; Reporting: 99%
NY-3: George Santos (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 99%
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) - Status: 52.0%; Reporting: 100%
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) - Status: 57.9%; Reporting: 95%
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Status: 50.8%; Reporting: 100%
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) - Status: 51.3%; Reporting: 98%
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 100%
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) - Status: 58.5%; Reporting: 100%
PA-7: Lisa Scheller (R) - Status: 50.7%; Reporting: 86%
PA-8: Jim Bognet (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 86%
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 89%
PA-17: Sean Parnell (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 94%
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R) - Status: 48.8%; Reporting: 99%
UT-4: Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 69%
VA-7: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) - Status: 50.6%; Reporting: 100%
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Status: 54.7%; Reporting: 80%

​Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox (R) has opened a commanding advantage over law professor Chris Peterson (D).  The Y2 Analytics survey (9/26-10/4; 1,214 UT likely voters; online) sees Mr. Cox holding a huge 57-29% margin over Mr. Peterson.  Obviously, Mr. Cox is the prohibitive favorite to win in November.

​RMG Research, polling for the Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute at the University of Utah (9/7-12; 800 UT-4 likely voters), just returned their data and shows freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) holding a slight 45-41% lead over businessman and former NFL football player Burgess Owens (R).  At the end of July, RMG found the race tied between the two men with each attracting 35% support while the survey brandished a large undecided factor.  Even earlier in July, Moore Information found Mr. Owens carrying an eye-opening nine-percentage point advantage. 
 
Combined, the polls tell us that the 4th District race, in a seat that stretches from south Salt Lake County and all the way through part of Sanpete County, will once again produce a close final result.  In 2018, Mr. McAdams unseated then-Rep. Mia Love (R) by just 694 votes of almost 270,000 ballots cast.

​Rumors had been swirling around Utah politics that former Gov. Jon Huntsman, who lost this year’s Republican primary to Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox on a 36-35% split, would mount a write-in campaign in the general election.  Yesterday, Mr. Huntsman disavowed that he would do so, making it clear that Mr. Cox will succeed retiring Gov. Gary Herbert (R) in the Fall.

​Former NFL pro-football player Burgess Owens is one of the stronger Republican challenger candidates and has a discernible opportunity to defeat an incumbent Democrat.  The Congressional Leadership Fund just released a survey (Moore Information Group; 7/8-9; 400 UT-4 likely general election voters) that finds Mr. Owens leading Rep. Ben McAdams (R-Salt Lake City) well beyond the margin of polling error at 43-34%.