KY-5:  Multiple Challengers Opposite Rep. Rogers:  Eastern Kentucky US Representative Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) is the Dean of the House of Representatives having been first elected in 1980.  He has rarely been challenged since, though already we see four Republican opponents lining up to challenge the veteran incumbent next year.  Yesterday, the fourth of these candidates, airline pilot David Kraftchak, announced his candidacy. 

In 2022, physician Rich Van Dam challenged the Congressman along with three others, and together the group held Rep. Rogers to an 82% landslide victory.  With the Congressman turning 86 years of age before the next election, it appears these challengers are anticipating a potential retirement announcement, since it is unlikely they will have much success at the ballot box.

NJ-7:  A Budding Re-Match:  New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District is a definable swing seat, and it is appearing more likely that in 2024 we will see the rubber match between current Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) and ex-Rep. Tom Malinowski (D).  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3 while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 50.8R – 46.6D partisan lean.

While Mr. Malinowski has not yet officially announced his 2024 campaign, reports coming from the region suggest he is laying the groundwork for another political contest.  Messrs. Kean and Malinowski traded 51-49% victories in the 2020 and 2022 elections.  We can expect another close battle here next year should this candidate lineup again come to fruition.

NY-3:  New Rep. Santos’ Opponent Announces:  While clearly Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) has attracted the most attention of any new member in the current Congress, individuals willing to challenge him in the next election haven’t been particularly quick to come forth.  Yesterday, however, college professor Will Murphy became the second Democrat to declare himself a candidate, joining Nassau County Legislator John Lafazen in the party primary. 

It is likely that Rep. Santos will draw a strong Republican primary opponent, but many are waiting to see the ethics investigation results involving the new Congressman that will be forthcoming at some point.  Regardless of what happens or who decides to run, we are guaranteed of seeing a highly competitive 2024 congressional campaign in this Long Island CD.

OH-9:  Legislator Won’t Return for a Re-Match:  Veteran Ohio US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) did not fare in the 2021 redistricting plan since her new 9th District was made decidedly Republican, but was still able to easily turn back Republican J.R. Majewski, who proved to be a weak opponent.  One of the individuals who lost to Majewski in the Republican primary was state Sen. Theresa Gavarone (R-Bowling Green).  Yesterday, Sen. Gavarone announced that she would not return to again run for Congress, but will seek re-election to the state Senate.

Many believed the crowded primary that allowed Majewski to defeat more established candidates through vote splitting cost the Republicans an opportunity of converting the western Ohio congressional district.  This year, Mr. Majewski says he is planning to run again but hasn’t yet formally announced, and Republican leaders are looking for a stronger candidate to challenge Rep. Kaptur, who was first elected to the House in 1982.  She is the longest serving Democratic member. 

Earlier in the week, former Walbridge Mayor Dan Wilczynski announced his candidacy.  State Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Waterville), the chairman of the Ohio House Ways & Means Committee, is also a potential candidate.

Chris Christie:  Unique Pitch:  Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R) is making appearances in New Hampshire and telling Republicans that they “need him” on the debate dais in order to “stop Trump.”  It is unlikely that such a strategy will bear much political fruit, but it is certainly possible that Mr. Christie will enter the presidential race.

OH-9:  New Candidate Emerges:  Ohio US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) is one of only five Democrats who represent seats that former President Donald Trump carried in 2020.  Post-redistricting, Rep. Kaptur found herself placed in a seat that is strongly Republican, but was fortunate in drawing GOP candidate J.R. Majewski who was part of the January 6th raid on the Capitol.  She easily dispensed with her opponent, 57-43%, despite the district’s R+6 partisan lean. 

A new contender came to the forefront yesterday, which will likely make the 2024 race much more competitive.  In what is expected to be the first of several Republican candidates to announce, former Walbridge Mayor Dan Wilczynski yesterday made his declaration. 

Rep. Kaptur is the Dean of House Democrats.  She was first elected in 1982, thus serving her 21st two-year term.

RI-1:  Candidate List Continues to Grow:  Despite Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) not resigning his seat until June 1st, the list of impending special election candidates continues to grow.  Woonsocket Mayor Lisa Baldelli-Hunt (D) is adding her name to the list of those either announcing for the seat or considering entering the campaign.  Her addition expands the candidate and potential candidate list to nine Democrats.  At a D+32 rating, Rep. Cicilline’s successor will be determined in the special Democratic primary.

Ms. Baldelli-Hunt is the aunt of Rocco Baldelli, who is the manager of the Minnesota Twins Major League Baseball club.  Gov. Dan McKee (D) will issue the special election calendar as soon as Rep. Cicilline officially resigns.

Chicago:  Conflicting Surveys:  Yesterday, we covered an Emerson College released poll that posted former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas to a 46-41% lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson.  Now we see a new survey coming into the public domain that shows Mr. Johnson in better standing. 

Northwestern University’s Center for Diversity and Democracy and several Black and Latino non-profit organizations contracted with the BSP survey research firm (3/15-23; 1,500 Chicago registered voters; live interview, email, and online panel) and produced data that finds the two candidates locked in a 44-44% dead heat. 

The runoff election is next Tuesday, and we are guaranteed a tight finish between the two jungle primary finishers.  In that qualifying election, incumbent Lori Lightfoot (D) was defeated.     

New Prospects:  Two Schedule Trips to Early States:  A pair of new Republican potential presidential candidates appear to be exploring the national campaign hustings.  Reportedly, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) are beginning to test the political waters with appearances in the early primary states.

Should they move forward, former President Trump will likely be the big winner.  The greater number of individuals who have little chance of winning the nomination but still become candidates makes it easier for Mr. Trump to score plurality victories and secure the highest number of delegates.

North Carolina:  New Gubernatorial Candidate Enters:  Tar Heel State Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) has received the preponderance of early attention regarding the 2024 open Republican gubernatorial nomination, but another individual has jumped ahead of him to become the first official GOP candidate.  State Treasurer Dale Folwell declared his gubernatorial candidacy yesterday, thus setting up a tough primary battle with Mr. Robinson.  The latter man is set to soon officially announce his bid.   

The lone Democrat in the race, Attorney General Josh Stein, is well on his way to becoming a consensus party candidate.  Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.  As with all North Carolina statewide races, the 2024 battle will yield a tight final result.

Chicago:  Breaking Vallas’ Way:  Two positive occurrences happened yesterday for Chicago mayoral candidate Paul Vallas, now just one week away from runoff election day.  First, Emerson College released their new survey conducted for the WGN Television in Chicago and The Hill newspaper in Washington, DC.  The study (3/23-25; 1,000 Chicago likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Mr. Vallas to a 46-41% lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson.  The polls have seesawed throughout the runoff period. 

Secondly, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) yesterday announced his public support of Mr. Vallas, thus bringing him more key Illinois Democratic establishment support.  The election is scheduled for April 4th.

Houston:  Rep. Jackson Lee (D) to Run for Mayor:  As has been anticipated for several months, Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) announced yesterday that she will enter the 2023 open Houston Mayor’s race.  The Congresswoman will not have to risk her US House seat to run for the post, but must resign if elected.  If this occurs, a special election will then be scheduled to fill the unexpired portion of the congressional term. Already, a field of eleven individuals have announced their mayoral candidacies even though candidate filing doesn’t conclude until August 21st. 

The major candidates, in addition to Rep. Jackson Lee who was first elected to Congress in 1994, include state Senator John Whitmire (D-Houston), former city Councilwoman and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards, Houston Metro Board member and ex-Texas Democratic Party Vice Chairman Chris Hollins, and attorney Lee Kaplan.  Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner is ineligible to seek a third term.

Texas:  Democrats Searching for Candidate:  Just like the Wisconsin Republicans in their quest to find a standard bearer to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year, the Lone Star State Democrats are continuing their search for a strong challenger to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R).  Still not successfully recruiting either Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) or former HUD Secretary and ex-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, the Democrats are now floating the idea of astronaut Scott Kelly, the twin brother of Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly (D). 

Though Scott Kelly, who for a time was the world record holder for being in space over the longest duration, 340 days, has not made any confirming statement that he is taking the same political path as his brother, the Democratic leadership convincing him to run would make an interesting race.

NJ-9:  Potential Challenge for Rep. Pascrell:  Last week we reported that 14-term New Jersey Congressman Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) announced that he would seek re-election next year at age 87.  He may not have a free ride, however.  Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is reportedly weighing his chances of challenging Rep. Pascrell in the 2024 Democratic primary.

Prior to being elected to Congress for the first time in 1996, Mr. Pascrell was simultaneously the Mayor of Paterson and a state Assemblyman.  In 2012, when New Jersey lost a seat in national reapportionment, Rep. Pascrell and then Rep. Steve Rothman (D) were paired in the new 9th District.  Initially, Rep. Pascrell was considered the underdog in the incumbent vs. incumbent Democratic primary, but the elder Congressman would in the end prevail with a landslide 62-38% victory.  Rep. Pascrell has not been seriously challenged since.

Chicago:  Vallas and Johnson Continue to Battle:  The Chicago municipal contest where voters have already defeated Mayor Lori Lightfoot continues to brandish polling showing a very tight runoff contest between former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson.  Several published polls disagree as to who is leading the race.  The latest Victory Research survey (3/20-23; 806 Chicago likely runoff voters) sees Mr. Vallas leading 46-44%.  IZQ Strategies (3/15-16; 680 Chicago likely runoff voters) arrives at the same 46-44% ballot test result, but they find Commissioner Johnson holding the slight edge.

Mr. Vallas has recently been able to cross racial lines by attracting endorsements from African American former officeholders Jesse White, who served six terms as the Illinois Secretary of State, and ex-Congressman Bobby Rush, who was in office for 30 years.  Crime is a big issue in the contest and could be defining.  The runoff is scheduled for April 4th.

Jacksonville:  Two Advance:  The Jacksonville Mayor’s primary was held during the week, and Democrat Donna Deegan topped the field of candidates with 39% of the vote.  Daniel Davis (R), the local Chamber of Commerce CEO, was second with 25%.  Since neither candidate received majority support, the two will advance to a May 16th runoff election.  Combined, Republican candidates received 51% of the vote as compared to the combined Democratic percentage of 48.  Republican incumbent Lenny Curry is ineligible to seek a third term.