New Jersey: Menendez to Submit Independent Signatures: Further reports are indicating that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) who will not be on the Democratic primary ballot on Tuesday apparently will file as an Independent candidate. Needing only 800 valid signatures from NJ registered voters suggests that the Senator has accomplished the task and will qualify for the general election.
As mentioned previously, the Senator, unless he is acquitted of the charges for which he is in trial, has little chance of winning the Senate seat from the Independent ballot line. As an official candidate, however, he can now use the $3.6 million last reported in his campaign account to pay legal expenses. Generic Polls: MI and NV Incumbent vs. No Name Surveys: The Cook Political report released a series of US Senate surveys conducted by two Democratic polling firms, BSG and the Global Strategy Groups. Their Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, head-to-head results are consistent with other polling, i.e., the Democratic consensus candidate or incumbent has a significant lead, but the two where no Republican was named proved interesting. In Michigan, the numbers testing consensus candidate Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) with an unnamed Republican, yield a 44-42% edge for the Democratic contender. This result is similar to data we have seen from other pollsters when a Republican candidate, usually former US Rep. Mike Rogers, is tested. Therefore, Republican chances here are legitimate. In Nevada, however, the generic Republican does better than the identified Republican, usually Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In the Cook Report’s survey, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads a generic Republican 48-41%. This is a closer showing for the GOP than the most recent Rosen-Brown results. The last two polls, from the Tyson Group (5/22-25; 601 NV likely voters; online) yields Sen. Rosen a 47-33% advantage. The Mainstreet Research study, for Florida Atlantic University (5/19-24; 494 NV likely voters; interactive voice response system & online), sees the Senator recording a 48-37% split. Therefore, the fact that the generic Republican numbers are better than those for Mr. Brown indicates a greater need for increasing his familiarity among the voters. LA-5: Close Race Brewing: Barring yet another change in the Louisiana congressional redistricting – we’ve already seen three different court rulings this year – it appears that Reps. Julia Letlow (R-Start/Monroe) and Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) will be paired in a new 5th District. A new Victory Insights survey (5/24-26; 375 likely voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds Rep. Letlow leading Rep. Graves by only a 38-35% count.
The survey shows strength for Letlow among Republicans, but Graves leads with Independents and Democrats. A lot will depend upon who else files in this race and whether the Democrats will field a credible candidate in the jungle primary election which is held concurrently with the general election. The new 5th is a combination of Rep. Letlow’s current 5th and likewise for Rep. Graves’ 6th CD. Within the new configuration, 57% of the voters are from Letlow’s current district, while 43% reside in the territory that Rep. Graves currently represents. MI-13: Ex-Sen. Hollier to Challenge Signature Ruling: Former Michigan state Senator Adam Hollier (D), who lost the open 2022 Democratic congressional primary to then-state Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) by a 28-23% margin, says he will challenge the Wayne County Clerk’s ruling that he failed to obtain 1,000 valid registered voter petition signatures necessary to run again this year. The official ruling indicates that Mr. Hollier submitted only 863 valid signatures. The former state legislator’s next move is to challenge the ruling in court.
It appears that Mr. Hollier would be Rep. Thanedar’s strongest opponent, so the upcoming judicial ruling will be very important toward determining the 13th District Democratic primary outcome. NY-16: AIPAC Turns Up the Heat on Rep. Bowman: House “Squad” member Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) is one of the most outspoken pro-Palestinian Congressmen, which has drawn the ire of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Attempting to support primary challenges for members who actively oppose Israel, AIPAC has announced a new media buy in support of Westchester County Executive George Latimer in his bid to deny Rep. Bowman renomination. The Committee will spend at least $8 million toward defeating Bowman in the June 25th New York primary. Rep. Bowman is clearly one of the most vulnerable members facing a primary challenge. The most recent publicly released poll finds the incumbent trailing substantially. According to the late March Mellman Group survey (3/26-30; 400 NY-16 likely voters), Latimer leads the race 52-35%. The contest is undoubtedly closer today, but Mr. Latimer’s spending advantage both from his campaign war chest and the outside groups make this the premier New York primary race. VA-7: Vindman Opens Large Lead: Retired Army Colonel Eugene Vindman (D), who publicly challenged then-President Trump over the Ukraine issue, released the results of his internal poll that casts him to a major Democratic primary lead. According to his Global Strategy Group survey (5/20-23; 500 VA-7 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) Mr. Vindman captures 43% support compared to Prince William County Supervisor Andrea Bailey’s 10% with no other candidate breaking into double-digits. The winner of the June 18th Democratic primary will face the eventual GOP nominee, who many believe will be attorney and Iraq War veteran Derrick Anderson. The 7th District is considered to be a swing seat, and Mr. Vindman would begin the general election as only a slight favorite. Incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is not seeking re-election in order to prepare for an open statewide gubernatorial run in 2025. North Dakota: Rep. Armstrong Continues to Post Strong Numbers: WPA Intelligence just released the results of their latest Peace Garden state poll for the North Dakota News Cooperative (5/20-22; 500 ND likely Republican primary voters). The data again points to US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) holding a big lead in the GOP primary. The ballot test numbers show a whopping 57-19% Armstrong lead over Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R) with 24% of the respondents reporting that they are undecided.
At this point, as the candidates enter the stretch drive for the June 11th primary election, Rep. Armstrong appears positioned not only as the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination, but also for the November general election. Democratic National Committee: Will Nominate Biden-Harris Virtually: It appears that the Democrats will, for the first time, nominate their presidential ticket before the delegates even gather for their national convention in late August. Responding to the Ohio election law that requires the political parties to provide official communication of their nominees prior to August 7th, Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison announced yesterday that the party delegates will vote in a virtual roll call prior to the August 19-22 party gathering to ensure that President Biden is placed on the Buckeye State ballot.
Ohio Republicans have said they would pass a new law changing the aforementioned deadline, yet Harrison said the Democrats would not wait for their counterparts to act, but rather would “land this plane themselves.” Conducting the vote early will make it even more difficult for insurgent Democrats to make any move to convince the President to step down from receiving the party nomination. Therefore, we can expect President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to be renominated well before August 7th and weeks prior to the Democratic delegates gathering in Chicago for their national convention. Michigan: Petition Signatures Confirmed: Despite stories surfacing last week that Republican candidates, Mike Rogers, a former House member and ex-Intelligence Committee chairman, ex-Rep. Justin Amash, and businessman Sandy Pensler were in danger of not submitting 15,000 valid petition signatures to qualify for the US Senate ballot, the State Bureau of Elections staff report indicates that the only Senate contender not qualifying from either major political party is Democrat Nasser Beydoun.
In Michigan, the staff sends their signature qualification report to the Secretary of State prior to the principal making a final decision. At this point, it appears that all three key Republican candidates will be on the ballot. For the Democrats, the battle will apparently be between US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and actor Hill Harper. TX-12: St. Rep. Goldman Wins GOP Runoff: State Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Ft. Worth), as expected, easily defeated real estate developer John O’Shea by a 63-37% margin from a low turnout of 26,670 votes. Mr. Goldman now becomes the prohibitive favorite in the general election to succeed retiring Congresswoman Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth) who is departing after serving what will be 14 terms in the House.
The result was not a surprise after Goldman placed first in the March 5th primary coming within 5.6 percentage points of winning the Republican nomination outright. Mr. Goldman was first elected to the state House of Representatives in 2012 and rose to a position of Republican Party leadership in the current legislative chamber. TX-23: Rep. Gonzales Barely Renominated: Two-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) escaped with a close win last night against firearm manufacturer Brandon Herrera in the Texas Republican runoff election after a nasty campaign. Rep. Gonzales won with 50.7% of the vote, a margin of just 407 votes of the 29,639 ballots cast. In the March 5th Republican primary, the Congressman placed first in the original election with 45.1% of the vote as compared to Mr. Herrera’s 24.6%. An incumbent being forced into a runoff generally plays poorly for the office holder in the secondary election, thus the closeness of this contest was not particularly surprising. Furthermore, last night’s result is not the first close call Mr. Gonzales has experienced in the Texas runoff system. In his first election back in 2020, Mr. Gonzales won that year’s runoff election with just 45 votes to spare, and then went onto score an upset 51-47% victory over Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones. The Congressman will now be favored to defeat Democratic nominee Santos Limon in the general election. TX-28: Republicans Nominate Furman: The third important Republican runoff election occurred in the South Texas 28th District, a seat that stretches from San Antonio all the way to the Mexican border. Retired Navy officer Jay Furman was an easy 65-35% winner over rancher Lazaro Garza, Jr. in a runoff election that saw only 12,683 voters cast ballots. Mr. Furman will advance to the general election to challenge embattled Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) who now faces a federal bribery indictment. Prior to his legal situation becoming public, the general election did not appear competitive, but the new developments suggest that the Republican nomination is worth having. Now the attention turns to the GOP apparatus to determine if they will target the district and spend the resources to help Mr. Furman score what they hope will be an upset victory on November 5th. Libertarian Party: Chooses Presidential Candidate: After booing former President Donald Trump during his speech to the party convention, the Libertarian Party delegates on the fourth ballot nominated former Georgia Senate and congressional candidate Chase Oliver as the party’s presidential nominee. The Libertarian Party is the only one of the minor entities that will have 50-state, or near 50-state, ballot presence. The party’s presence is more likely to take votes away from former President Trump than President Biden.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. received only 2% of the delegate vote on the first ballot and was eliminated. Mr. Chase then advanced to a third ballot against college professor Michael Rectenwald. Chase received 49.5% of the vote, just short of the majority threshold. He then advanced to win 60% alone against a none of the above option. New Jersey: Sen. Menendez Circulating Petitions: While Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is standing trial for bribery, reports are surfacing from New Jersey that he is also having petitions circulated to enter the 2024 Senate race as an Independent. Earlier, Sen. Menendez announced that he would not compete in the Democratic primary.
It is likely that the Senator will file as an Independent not because he believes he can win from that ballot line, but his status as a candidate would allow him to use his substantial campaign funds (his cash-on-hand figure was just under $3.6 million on March 31st) to pay his legal expenses. |
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