Speculation is rampant in Arizona in response to Sen. Jeff Flake’s (R) retirement announcement.  Despite no new individual yet announcing their candidacy, the local Data Orbital polling firm went into the field to test various potential participants. 
 
According to the survey (10/26-28; 500 AZ likely GOP primary voters), six potential GOP contenders were tested, including former state Sen. Kelli Ward who has been running against Sen. Flake since the 2016 election ended.  Ms. Ward leads the pack of prospective candidates, which is not particularly surprising since she has been actively campaigning for months.  The fact that she only tallies 26%, however, after opening up large leads on Flake has to be a bit disappointing for the former state legislator and US Senate candidate.  Close behind at 19% is Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson).  Next, former US Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Mesa) posts 10% with Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale), former Rep. John Shadegg (R-Scottsdale), and University of Arizona Regent Jay Heiler recording 6, 4, and 1%, respectively. 

--Jim Ellis

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) has long been considered a possible 2018 gubernatorial candidate, but actually appeared to be taking more concrete steps toward forming a 2020 presidential campaign than entering a statewide California race.  Yesterday, the Mayor confirmed what most people believed would eventually happen.   Mr. Garcetti announced that he will not be a candidate for Governor next year, but launching a long shot presidential campaign is still potentially in his future.

--Jim Ellis

State Supreme Court Justice Bill O’Neill has been talking about entering the Democratic gubernatorial primary for months.  Now, he says he will do so in February when he retires from the bench.  The move is an interesting one for a potential candidate who said he would not run against Consumer Protection Financial Bureau director Richard Cordray (D), a former Ohio Attorney General.  It was believed that Mr. Cordray was returning to Ohio in September to announce his gubernatorial effort, but such has still not happened.  Therefore, the O’Neill announcement could well be the final signal that Cordray will not become a candidate in 2018.

--Jim Ellis

Though polling looks to be ticking upward for Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) in the Virginia Governor’s race, yesterday’s release of the latest Quinnipiac University poll (10/25-29; 916 VA self-identified likely voters) appears as an outlier.  The ballot test of 53-36% in favor of Northam touches a margin that no other pollster has reached, and we’ve seen five publicly commissioned surveys since October 15th, and 31 for the entire race.  The partisan division appears badly skewed, as Democrats outnumber Republicans in the sample, 37-24%, a much greater margin than voting patterns suggest, and particularly so for the low turnout odd-numbered year election.  Mr. Northam may well have the lead heading into the campaign’s final week, but him holding a 17-point spread is highly unlikely.

--Jim Ellis

Christopher Newport University and The Polling Company/WomanTrend each conducted surveys last week for the upcoming Virginia Governor’s race.  It appears that slight skews are present in both.  The Newport U poll (part of a three-survey track; 10/20-25; 812 VA likely voters from a pool of 947 interviews) finds Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) leading Republican Ed Gillespie, 50-43%, the first time the Democrat has attracted majority support in any CNU poll or track.  But, with a tighter than normal 50:44% conservative versus liberal split, the polling universe skews slightly left.
 
The Polling Company study (10/23-26; 800 VA likely voters) also went into the field, but arrives at a different conclusion.  They find the two candidates tied at 44%.  But, with a Democrat/Republican split at 43:42%, this polling sample slants several points to the right.  Even in this sample, however, the hard vote – those who say they will not change their minds – favors Northam, 32-28%.

--Jim Ellis

Further information is becoming available as more potential Grand Canyon State candidates begin to make statements about what their plans may or may not be concerning the newly open US Senate seat. 
 
After originally saying he would seek re-election, four-term Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Prescott) now indicates that he is considering entering the Senate race.  Though she hasn’t yet said anything public, rumors are heavy that Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) is taking action to begin constructing a statewide campaign.  Former US Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Mesa) also says that he is considering the race.   University of Arizona Regent Jay Heiler (R) has formed a US Senate exploratory committee.  Mr. Heiler was chief of staff to former Gov. Fife Symington (R), and was a key supporter of former Gov. Jan Brewer (R).   Since Sen. Jeff Flake’s (R) retirement announcement was unexpected, we will see a much longer period when potential candidates begin to make final decisions about whether they will run statewide.

--Jim Ellis

New at-large Congressman Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman), who was elected in the late May special election (50-44%) to replace Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R), is already drawing a large field of Democratic challengers.  In the past few days, two former state legislators have joined the Democratic primary battle for the state’s lone congressional seat.  Former state Sen. Lynda Moss (D-Billings) and ex-state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D-Bozeman) announced their candidacies that now expand the Democratic candidate field to seven contenders.  Still, no word as to whether Democratic special election nominee Rob Quist will again run.   Mr. Quist’s campaign spent more than $6.6 million during the special election contest. 

--Jim Ellis

JMC Analytics & Polling made headlines when the organization released a poll in August that placed GOP challenger Danny Tarkanian ahead of incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R), 39-31% in next year’s GOP statewide primary.  Now, the firm is out with a new poll (10/24-26; 500 NV likely Republican primary voters; automated), and the results again give the advantage to challenger Tarkanian.  According to the data, the perennial candidate has a 44-38% edge over the first-term Senator who, like retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), has been under attack from President Trump.  In a piece of good news for the Senator, his favorability has improved to 51:43% from the poor 34:48% positive to negative ratio determined in the August survey.

--Jim Ellis

Sen. Jeff Flake’s (R) retirement announcement has certainly greased the Arizona political wheels for movement.  Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) has yet to make a public statement about running but is clearly the Republicans’ best candidate on paper and is reportedly getting strong encouragement to run.  Reps. Paul Gosar (R-Prescott) and Trent Franks (R-Peoria/Sun City), along with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), say they will seek re-election to the House.  Freshman Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is also much more likely to remain where he is than enter the Senate race.  Former US Representative and gubernatorial nominee Matt Salmon (R-Mesa) has not ruled out a run, and state Treasurer Jeff DeWit, a former Trump state chairman, indicated that his view toward running for the Senate may change now that Sen. Flake is no longer in the picture.  Ex-state Republican Party chairman Robert Graham says he will decide within the next week.
 
There is stirring on the Democratic side, too.  Before Sen. Flake announced his retirement, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) was making major strides in coalescing Democrats around her budding candidacy.  Now that the seat is open, the political situation is becoming more fluid.  Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), while taking himself out of the statewide race, says that the party’s liberal faction may want to look for a candidate to the left of Sinema instead of falling in behind the three-term Phoenix Congresswoman.

--Jim Ellis

Just after the University of North Florida published a US Senate poll this week that finds Sen. Bill Nelson (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) by a small one-point, 37-36% margin, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy followed by publishing their current data.  According to the study (10/17-19; 625 FL registered voters), the two candidates are tied at 44%, apiece.  The two polls once again confirm that Floridians can again expect yet another tight political contest in the ensuing election campaign.

--Jim Ellis