​WSJ Poll:  Trump in Primary; DeSantis in General:   We continue to see more polling evidence that former President Donald Trump has an early lock on the 2024 Republican nomination, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fares better in a general election pairing with President Biden. 
The just-released Wall Street Journal poll (conducted by Fabrizio Lee & Associates; 4/11-17; 1,500 US Adults; 600 likely Republican primary voters) finds Mr. Trump holding a 51-38% lead among the national Republican polling sample in a hypothetical one-on-one pairing with Gov. DeSantis.  Within the field of 12 announced and potential candidates, Mr. Trump leads with 48% as compared to the Florida Governor’s 24%.  Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley receives only 5% support, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy registers 2 percent.  This is a major change from the December WSJ poll when DeSantis led Trump in the head-to-head pairing, 52-38%. 
In the general election, however, Gov. DeSantis outpolls President Biden 48-45%.  If Mr. Trump were the Republican nominee, the margin becomes a mirror image as President Biden would claim the same 48-45% edge.

​Arizona:  Kari Lake Signals Senate Candidacy:   Former Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who is still fighting voter fraud lawsuits over her close 2022 loss to current Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), says she is likely to enter the open US Senate contest unless the courts install her as Governor.  Since the latter happening is highly unlikely at this point, we can count on seeing Ms. Lake back in a 2024 Grand Canyon State election campaign.
Already in the GOP primary is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.  He and Lake would likely split the “Trump lane” within the Arizona GOP electorate.  This may portend well for another Republican candidate occupying the pro-business/free enterprise outside lane.  The Arizona primary is scheduled for August 6, 2024. 
The general election is very likely to become a three-way race with the eventual Republican nominee, probably Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) on the Democratic line, and incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I) either running as an Independent or becoming the nominee of the No Labels Party.  The NLP has qualified for the ballot in the state, but the Arizona Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit challenging its status. 
California:  Sen. Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies:   According to a Twitter post and other sources, a group of 60 progressive left organizations have coalesced under a letter to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) asking her to resign.  Sen. Feinstein, who is the longest-serving Democrat in the current Senate, has already announced that she will not seek re-election.  Suffering from Shingles, Sen. Feinstein is back in California and not attending session.  This puts the Democratic conference down a seat, so pressure is being exerted on her to leave early so Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can make a replacement appointment.  At this point, Sen. Feinstein says she will serve the balance of her final term.

​NY-17:  Gov. Whitmer’s Sister Declares for Congress:   Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustree Liz Gereghty (D) announced that she will compete for the Democratic nomination with the hope of challenging freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) next year.  Ms. Gereghty is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) sister. 
We can expect a crowded Democratic primary that could possibly include former US Rep. Mondaire Jones who left the Westchester County anchored district to run unsuccessfully for a New York City seat.  Rep. Lawler then upset Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in November.  Mr. Maloney has not ruled out a comeback attempt, but most believe him returning is a remote possibility. 
With NY-17 rated as D+7 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and Dave’s Redistricting App calculating partisan lean of 56.6D – 41.3R, we can count on seeing this CD as a top Democratic conversion target in 2024 and becoming a national congressional campaign.

​Donald Trump:  Scoring Florida Congressional Endorsements:   Former President Donald Trump is playing the endorsement game to “one up” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and he has been quite successful in recruiting Sunshine State delegation congressional endorsements.  How much such support will help the former President is yet to be determined, but he now has eleven Florida House members in his camp versus just one for the state’s Governor.
Publicly endorsing Mr. Trump are Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach), John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville), Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) from the district that Mr. DeSantis previously represented, Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor), Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg), Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota), Greg Steube (R-Sarasota), Byron Donalds (R-Naples), Brian Mast (R-Ft. Pierce), and Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami).  The lone DeSantis endorsement comes from freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa).
Pennsylvania:  Trump Concerned About Mastriano:   Reports are surfacing on Twitter that former President Trump is expressing anxiety that state Senator and former gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg) would hurt his own campaign if the latter man were to run for the Senate and win the party nomination.  Sen. Mastriano is a strong supporter of Mr. Trump’s, but his poor 2022 general election campaign for Governor netted him only a 56-42% loss to then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D). 
Again having Mastriano on the general election ballot would likely cost Republicans up and down the entire ballot because another poor campaign for one of the top offices would likely depress GOP turnout.

​Montana:  Top Two Primary Bill Tabled:   The state House policy committee considering whether Montana should employ the top two jungle primary system in the US Senate race as a test case this year has run into a snag.  All but one Republican committee member joined with the Democrats to table the bill that would enact such a plan. 
Democrats claim the Republicans are trying to change the primary system in order to stop a Libertarian Party candidate from garnering its customary three percentage points in the general election, most of which hurts a Republican nominee. 
The measure had already passed the Senate.  The bill’s author said he doesn’t believe the idea is dead and could still pass the 68R-32D state House of Representatives before the legislature adjourns.  Sen. Jon Tester (D) is seeking a fourth term in next year’s election.  Should this measure pass, the results will likely directly affect his campaign.

​South Dakota:  Clears the Way for Top Two Nominating System:   The South Dakota Secretary of State approved the petition to begin gathering signatures to put a measure on the ballot that would change the way primaries are conducted in the Mount Rushmore State.  Proponents of the top two all-party jungle primary system, while at least temporarily on hold in Montana, can now move forward in South Dakota.  To qualify a constitutional amendment measure for the state ballot, 35,000 valid registered voter signatures must be brought forth before the assigned deadline.  The purpose of this effort is to qualify the top two concept for the November 2024 ballot. 
The Republicans, who dominate the state’s politics, are officially opposed to the measure.  The state Republican Party chairman pledges to fight the ballot initiative and will likely get the party on public record in opposition to the proposed election system change. 
Currently, California and Washington have adopted this system that originated in Louisiana.  Alaska adopted a hybrid version of the all-party primary with four candidates qualifying for the general election, as opposed to two from the other states.  In all domains, the top finishers advance regardless of political party affiliation.

​Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.:  Formally Announces:   The son of former US Attorney General and New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy officially entered the Democratic presidential primary yesterday.  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. gained national attention for his anti-vaccination stance but is unlikely to be a serious threat to President Biden.  He could, however, do some damage in New Hampshire and Georgia if the two states don’t adhere to the Democratic National Committee primary schedule, thus likely forcing the President to skip those primaries.
The adjusted DNC schedule bounces New Hampshire from the first primary position and adds Georgia to the pre-Super Tuesday calendar, among other changes.  New Hampshire will not easily relinquish their traditional position, and doesn’t have to because the individual states, and not the political parties, control their own primary election schedule.  The Georgia legislature and Governor may not approve the schedule because doing so would force the state to finance two primaries since the Republicans are not adding the Peach State to the pre-Super Tuesday schedule.
New Hampshire:  Trump Leading in New Poll:   A new University of New Hampshire Granite State poll (4/13-17; 818 NH likely Republican primary voters; online) sees former President Donald Trump continuing to lead the proposed Republican presidential primary field, while home state Gov. Chris Sununu breaks into double-digits ascending to third place.  Mr. Trump would lead Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Gov. Sununu, 42-22-12%.  No other potential candidate reaches 5% support.  On the Republican side, New Hampshire will remain as the first-in-the-nation primary.
South Carolina:  Trump Leads Home State Opponents:   The recently released National Public Affairs survey (4/11-14; 538 SC registered voters likely to vote in the Republican primary; online & text) finds former President Trump again topping the Palmetto State field with 40% of the vote, a full 20 points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 
South Carolina candidates Nikki Haley, the former Governor, and Sen. Tim Scott who has filed a presidential exploratory committee, would command 18 and 16%, respectively.  Though still trailing badly in their home state, the NPA ballot test posts the South Carolina pair to their strongest showing to date.

​Texas:  State Senator Moving Toward Cruz Challenge:   Texas state Senator Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio), who represents the city of Uvalde, the site of the terrible May 2022 elementary school shooting, is reportedly preparing to launch a US Senate challenge to two-term incumbent Ted Cruz (R).  Sen. Gutierrez would be the first significant candidate to come forward assuming he makes the final decision to announce. 
Sen. Cruz, who won the 2018 race against former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (D) with 50.9% of the vote, would be favored to win a third term with a much greater percentage in a presidential election year.  He eschewed another run for President this year to concentrate on his Senate re-election campaign.

​West Virginia:  Gov. Justice Moving Closer to Bid:   Reports coming from West Virginia suggest that Gov. Jim Justice (R) will announce a US Senate challenge to incumbent Joe Manchin (D) before April ends.  The new Morning Consult Governor approval ratings report will give Mr. Justice a boost.  Among the 50 Governors, he rates as tied for third with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) in recording a positive score of 66%.  Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R), now serving his fourth two-year term, is the most favorably viewed state chief executive with a 78% approval score.  Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon (R) is second at 67% positive.
In comparison, Sen. Manchin’s latest job approval ratio was 38:55% favorable to unfavorable.  Before directly challenging Sen. Manchin, Gov. Justice must first defeat US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) in the Republican Senate primary.  Under West Virginia law, the Governor is ineligible to seek a third term.

​Ohio:  Businessman Moreno Joins GOP Race:   Buckeye State businessman Bernie Moreno (R), who for a short time was in the 2022 Senate race but dropped out before the first ballots were cast, announced that he will join the 2024 Republican primary with the hope of challenging Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election.  While a candidate in the previous campaign, Mr. Moreno spent $4 million of his personal fortune on his political effort.
Currently in the race is state Senator and 2022 US Senate candidate Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) who has already invested $3 million of his own money into the ’24 Senate race.  Thus, it appears we have two major self-funders set to battle each other for what should be a valuable GOP nomination in what portends to be one of the hottest general election Senate races in the country.