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The Arizona Republican primary culminates on Tuesday, and we see another pair of closing polls projecting different leaders. The Trafalgar Group and Battleground Connect were in the field simultaneously but they see different outcomes. Trafalgar (7/25-27; 1,071 AZ likely Republican primary voters; multiple sample-gathering tactics) finds venture capitalist Blake Masters leading businessman Jim Lamon and Attorney General Mark Brnovich, 35-27-15%, with the remaining candidates polling at less than 10% support.
BC (7/26-27; 800 AZ likely Republican primary voters; live interview), however, forecasts Mr. Lamon as forging a small lead, 30-28-16%, over Mr. Masters and AG Brnovich. While it appears the race is becoming a two-way affair between Messrs. Masters and Lamon, the final result will almost certainly come down to the two men being separated by just a handful of votes. Fox News was polling the Pennsylvania races (7/22-26; 908 PA likely general election voters; live interview), and in the Senate race confirms what other pollsters are seeing. That is, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), despite being absent from the campaign trail as he recovers from a stroke, continues to build a lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee. The Fox numbers post Mr. Fetterman to a 47-36% margin, his largest advantage of any polling result to date.
Dr. Oz’s biggest problem continues to be his personal image. This Pennsylvania polling sample rated him as 35:55% favorable to unfavorable. This compares to Fetterman’s 49:34% positive image. A new Florida Republican congressional poll suggests a contender is poised to usurp the race leader as we move within a month of the Florida primary. American Viewpoint, polling for the Kevin Hayslett campaign (7/24-27; 400 likely FL-13 primary voters; live interview) sees their client, who is a Pinellas County attorney, pulling to within two percentage points of race leader Anna Paulina Luna, 36-34%, with attorney and 2020 candidate Amanda Makki (R) dropping back to 9%.
Since the AV last surveyed the district in late June, Mr. Hayslett has improved from trailing in a 42-19% margin to his current two-point deficit. It appears that Hayslett is the one having the upward momentum as the candidates enter the home stretch prior to the August 23rd primary election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has been attempting to influence Republican primaries by attacking certain contenders as being too conservative, knowing that such a message would help move Republican primary base voters to the candidate Democrats believe as being the weakest.
Rep. Peter Meijer’s (R-Grand Rapids) campaign, however, responded in-kind. Launching his own message and highlighting the DCCC ad indicating that former Housing & Urban Development official John Gibbs is too conservative, Rep. Mejier’s ad attacks Gibbs as “Nancy Pelosi’s hand-picked candidate.” The Michigan primary is Tuesday. The winner will face Democrat Hillary Scholten who is unopposed for her party’s nomination. The University of Georgia, polling for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (7/14-22; 902 GA likely general election voters; live interview), finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) clinging to a small lead in the US Senate race, the third consecutive published poll to project Warnock’s edge margins between 3 and 9 points. The UGA/AJC ballot test sees Sen. Warnock holding a 46-43% edge over retired NFL football star Herschel Walker (R). Another poll, from Survey USA (7/21-24; 604 GA likely general election voters), posts the Senator to a 48-39% advantage.
Mr. Warnock holds the lead despite the Republicans having a 46-41% lead on the UGA’s generic ballot question, with the right track/wrong track ratio at 10:78%, and President Biden reaching a 60% disapproval rating. On Monday Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson (D), whose campaign for US Senate never caught fire, formally ended his statewide effort. Yesterday, Milwaukee Bucks basketball club executive and former Obama Administration official Alex Lasry then followed suit and also departed the race. The latter move was the more surprising since Mr. Lasry had loaned his campaign over $12 million and all polling found him placing second in the field.
In their concession statements, both Messrs. Nelson and Lasry endorsed Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, which could pave the way for him clinching the party nomination and advancing to challenge Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in the general election. Veteran Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is having trouble securing the new seat according to a new publicly released research survey.
The Congressman created post-redistricting controversy when he decided to challenge Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) in the 17th CD rather than staying in his own 18th District, thus forcing the freshman incumbent to seek re-election in a New York City CD. McLaughlin & Associates, polling for the Mike Lawler for Congress campaign (7/19-21; 400 NY-17 likely general election voters; live interview), finds Rep. Maloney trailing his Republican opponent, 46-44%. The McLaughlin data also shows state Assemblyman Lawler claiming a lead over state Sen. Allessandra Biaggi (D-Bronx) if she were to upend Rep. Maloney in the August 23rd Democratic primary. Under this scenario, Mr. Lawler would post a 47-41% advantage in such a subsequent general election pairing. The 17th is one of three Upstate NY congressional districts that will be hotly contested in the November campaign. The aforementioned University of Georgia – Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey also tested the Peach State Governor’s contest. Here, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leads former state House Minority Leader and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams (D) by a 48-43% count. The accompanying Survey USA poll shows a much closer 45-44% Kemp edge.
This is the 15th poll conducted of this race since the beginning of 2022, and Mr. Kemp has led in all but one. In that stand-alone survey, the two were tied. The Governor’s job approval rating is 54:42% favorable to unfavorable. The UGA/AJC and S-USA studies are the second and third consecutive polls that place Gov. Kemp ahead in the Governor’s race while fellow Republican Herschel Walker (R) trails in the Senate contest. The hard-fought Missouri Republican primary is a week away, and three new late July polls are bringing sighs of relief to GOP leaders. It has long been believed that the Missouri race comes off the table if either Attorney General Eric Schmitt or US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) wins the party nomination, but danger looms for the GOP if resigned, scandal-tainted Gov. Eric Greitens were to forge through a crowded field with plurality support.
Three polls were conducted from July 21 through 24, and the results are consistent. The Remington Research Group (7/23-24; 802 MO likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system), the Trafalgar Group (7/22-24; 1,059 MO likely Republican primary voters; multiple sample-gathering tactics) and Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper (7/21-23; 1,000 MO likely Republican and Democratic primary voters, but the number of each is unspecified; multiple sample-gathering tactics), all arrived at similar conclusions. That is, Attorney General Schmitt seems to be developing a secure lead. RRG sees Mr. Schmitt leading Rep. Hartzler and Mr. Greitens, 32-25-18%. Trafalgar finds the candidates placing in the same order, but a bit closer, 27-24-20%. Emerson’s numbers are better for Mr. Schmitt, at 33-21-16%. For the Democrats, Emerson projects philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine, despite being under heavy political attack, as leading Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce 39-35% with a 22% undecided factor. The Democratic firm Blueprint Polling released a new PA statewide poll (7/19-21; 712 PA likely voters; live interview) and found Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), still recovering from a serious stroke he suffered just before the primary election, expanding his lead to 49-40% over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). The most recent Senate survey prior to Blueprint’s, from Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP (6/12-19; 1,382 PA likely voters), projected a 50-44% Fetterman edge. In the Governor’s race, Blueprint found Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) topping state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Fayetteville), 51-39%, which is also a significant improvement for him over the previous statewide poll.
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