​MI-8:  Flint Mayor Drops Congressional Bid:  The open race to replace retiring Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) just got smaller.  Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D) ended his congressional bid after filing for the seat.  The Democratic establishment is coalescing around state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and this, in addition to poor fundraising totals, was relegating Mayor Neeley to the second tier of contenders. 
 
Therefore, the Democratic field has winnowed to Sen. Rivet, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier.  On the Republican side, two-time congressional nominee and former television anchor Paul Junge, state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, retired Dow Corporation executive Mary Draves, and frequent candidate Anthony Hudson are competing for the nomination.
 
The open 8th District is politically marginal.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district R+1, but President Biden carried the seat 50-48% while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks MI-8 as the 11th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.  In practice, however, the Democrats will carry at least a small edge heading into the 2024 general election. 
 
NY-26:  Special Election Today:  One of the House’s six vacancies will be filled today, and the projected outcome appears clear.  New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) resigned the seat in February, and the local New York political parties chose state Sen. Brian Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the Democratic nominee while the GOP selected West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson. 
 
Sen. Kennedy is a heavy favorite tonight in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+18.  Therefore, it is most probable that the House party division will move to 217R – 213D after the votes are counted this evening with five vacancies (4R -1D) remaining.  The 26th District is comprised of the Buffalo metropolitan area and includes parts of Erie and Niagara Counties.
 
TX-34:  Close Texas Rematch:  In 2022, due to the Texas redistricting map, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and Mayra Flores (R-McAllen) were forced to run against each other in the new Brownsville-McAllen anchored 34th District.  In November of that year, Rep. Gonzalez scored a 53-44% victory in the new district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+17. 
 
With the political climate changing on the Texas-Mexico border, this district will become more competitive during this election cycle.  A new 1892 polling organization survey (4/11-13; 400 TX-34 likely general election voters; live interview) confirms the final result is likely to be closer in 2024.  The Gonzalez-Flores ballot test only breaks 48-45% in Democrat’s favor, suggesting the campaign could evolve into a toss-up.
 
On the presidential front, the 1892 pollsters did not ask a direct ballot question.  Rather, they phrased a similar query testing which candidate’s border policies are viewed more favorably.  The Trump policies were selected in a 51-36% margin.  It appears this rematch contest will be one to watch in November.

​West Virginia:  Polling Flip:  The polling in the open West Virginia Republican gubernatorial primary has been erratic for several months.  After eight consecutive polls showed Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the race in a wide range between one and 19 percentage points, a new NMB Research survey (for West Virginia’s Future PAC; 4/20-24; 500 WV likely Republican primary voters) finds former Delegate Moore Capito, son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), now assuming the lead. 
 
The ballot test projects a 31-23% margin for the top two candidates with businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), attracting a 14% preference factor, and Secretary of State Mac Warner right behind at 13% support. 
 
The West Virginia’s Future PAC is an organization supporting Mr. Capito.  The poll comes on the heels of Gov. Jim Justice (R) endorsing the former Delegate.  The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14th.

​FL-8:  Rep. Posey Withdraws:  After filing for re-election, eight-term Florida US Rep. Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) announced that he is withdrawing from the race.  Immediately, and obviously after receiving a tip from the Congressman, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) filed his own federal campaign committee.  Since Florida does not extend candidate filing time when the incumbent does not seek re-election, Mr. Haridopolos is clearly the front runner to succeed the 30-year office holder.  In addition to his 16 years in Congress, Rep. Posey served another 16 years in the legislature, eight in each house. 
 
Attorney Joe Babits and technology company executive John Hearton, both viewed as minor candidates, are the only other individuals to have declared their candidacies.  For the Democrats, West Melbourne City Councilman Don McDow is favored for the party nomination over attorney Sandy Kennedy.
 
Florida’s 8th District, that stretches from Titusville to Vero Beach on the Atlantic Coast, is safely Republican.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+23.  Former President Trump carried the district, 58-41%, in 2020.  The Posey retirement means there are now 52 open seats headed into the next election, with 26 coming from the Democratic Conference versus the Republicans’ 25.  One seat is newly created in Alabama.
 
MT-2:  Ex-Rep. Rehberg Trails in New Poll:  Guidant Polling & Strategy just released the results of their recent Montana Republican primary congressional poll (4/14-17; 400 MT-2 likely Republican primary voters).  The data find State Auditor Troy Downing (R) leading former Congressman Denny Rehberg and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, 38-26-10%. 
 
Ex-Rep. Rehberg, who represented the at-large district for twelve years after serving six years as Lt. Governor, is being heavily outspent.  Mr. Downing, through March 31st, had spent just over $630,000 compared to only $7,300 for Mr. Rehberg.  The former Congressman then infused his own campaign treasury with a loan of $300,000.   
 
The winner of the June 4th primary election will succeed retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana seat.

Utah:  GOP Nominating Convention Upends Establishment:  After being booed during his speech to the Republican nominating convention delegates on Saturday, Gov. Spencer Cox fell to state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) by a whopping 67-33% vote.  To qualify for the ballot in a statewide race, a candidate needed to attract at least 40% of the delegate vote.  While the Governor did not qualify through the convention process, he had filed the necessary 28,000 valid petition signatures prior to the party assembly to guarantee his ballot position in the June 25th Republican primary. 

In the Senate race, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, riding former President Trump’s endorsement that was announced just before the convention began, proved himself the delegates’ favorite with a 70-30% victory over Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo). 

The vote makes Mayor Staggs the only candidate qualifying through the convention process.  Rep. Curtis submitted the requisite number of petitions, so he, too, will be on the primary ballot.  Joining them are a pair of others qualifying via petition, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton.  Attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, who fell short of the 28,000 signature requirement, did not receive 40% delegate support.  Therefore, he is eliminated from further competition. 
​
In the House races, both Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) and Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) finished second to a Republican opponent but cleared the 40% threshold.  Rep. Moore had previously qualified through petition, but Rep. Maloy was a “convention only” candidate.  Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) was renominated by acclamation.  In the open 3rd CD, the only candidate to win the delegate support is state Sen. Mike Kennedy (R-American Fork).  Qualifying through petition are State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird, and businessman Case Lawrence.  The Utah primary will be conducted on June 25th.  The eventual GOP nominee in all races will be favored in the general election.

Bloomberg Swing State Polls:  Trump Leading in All But One:  Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult data organization, conducted presidential polls in all seven of the key swing states during the April 8-13 period.  The cumulative data produced very good news for Donald Trump, as he is projected to lead in six of the seven states in both head to head pairings with President Biden and when the independent and minor candidates are added to the polling questionnaire.

In the one-on-one polling series, Mr. Trump leads President Biden in a range from one (Pennsylvania) to ten (North Carolina) percentage points.  In only Michigan does President Biden have an advantage (+2).  When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) and the minor party candidates are added, which is the more realistic ballot test, Mr. Trump’s advantage either holds or grows.  Under this scenario, his advantage stretches from one (Pennsylvania) to a whopping 14 percentage points (Nevada).  Again, under this configuration, President Biden would lead in only Michigan (+3). 
​
This series represents Mr. Trump’s strongest cumulative swing state showing of 2024.  The polled states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Utah:  GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow:  Utah Republican delegates convene tomorrow at the Salt Palace Convention Center in Salt Lake City to consider a large ticket of primary endorsements, the most important of which are for the open US Senate seat and Governor.

In Utah, candidates can qualify for the ballot in one of two ways.  The first is to obtain 40% of the delegate vote at the state convention.  Doing so guarantees a primary ballot line for no more than two candidates.  The second way is to petition onto the ballot, which means collecting 28,000 valid registered party members’ signatures for a statewide candidacy.  For a US House race, the required signature number is 7,000 within the particular district. 

Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman and podcast host Jason Walton have already qualified for the US Senate Republican primary ballot via petition signatures.  Therefore, regardless of whether these men receive the 40% delegate support necessary to advance to the primary in tomorrow’s convention, they have each secured a ballot line.  Attorney Brett Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), submitted petitions but is approximately 7,000 signatures short of qualifying.  Thus, he can access the ballot only through the delegate process tomorrow.
​
In the Governor’s race, the only candidate qualifying through petition is the incumbent Governor, Spencer Cox.  For the US House, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City)  is the only incumbent to qualify through petition signatures.  The state’s other incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), will qualify through the delegate process.  No opponent to either Reps. Maloy or Owens has submitted petition signatures.

​KS-2:  Majority Leader Won’t Run for House:  Despite indicating interest in running for Congress when Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) announced his retirement last week, Kansas state House Majority Leader Chris Croft (R-Overland Park) yesterday issued a statement saying he will not run. 
 
Mr. Croft’s decision is principally due to the fact that his home Overland Park area is fully contained in the 3rd District, thus giving him very little in the way of a political base in District 2.  A crowded Republican field is expected to form before the June 1st candidate filing deadline.  With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+21, the Republican primary winner will become the definitive favorite in the general election.

Quinnipiac Poll:  Trump Draws Into a National Tie:  Quinnipiac University conducts monthly national political polls, and their April survey reports a much different conclusion than the four previous studies had produced.  The most recent poll (4/18-22; 1,429 US registered voters; live interview) finds President Biden and former President Trump tied at 46% in the head-to-head delineation, and 37-37% when Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (16%) is added along with Green Party nominee Jill Stein (3%), and Independent Cornel West (3%). 
​
This poll reveals a significant movement in Mr. Trump’s favor when compared with the four previous polls beginning in December that yielded President Biden leads of one, six, four, and three percentage points.  

CO-8:  Rep. Caraveo (D) Drops Behind in New GE Poll:  Despite having a better than 5:1 lead in fundraising, an early April OnMessage survey in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District (4/1-4; 400 CO-8 likely voters; live interview) projects state Representative Gabe Evans (R-Westminster) to have secured a 43-38% ballot test advantage over freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton).  This, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+3.  The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, however, calculate a different 48.3D – 47.0R partisan lean.  In 2020, President Biden carried the district 50.8 – 46.3%.
 
The 8th CD was created through 2020 national reapportionment since Colorado gained a seat and was drawn as a suburban/outer-suburban district to the north and northeast of Denver.  This race will be rated as a toss-up campaign all the way through the November election.
 
NJ-10:  Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. Passes Away:  New Jersey US Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), who suffered a heart attack on April 9th and unfortunately did not recover, passed away yesterday.  His death means there are now six vacant congressional seats thus reducing the total membership number to 429.

Since candidate filing is closed for the regular cycle and Rep. Payne is the only candidate on the ballot for the 10th District Democratic primary, he will posthumously win the nomination contest.  According to a story in the New Jersey Globe newspaper, once all candidates are certified for the general election by the June 17th deadline after the June 4th primary election, the Secretary of State will declare the seat vacant.  The various Democratic county party committee members would then meet in convention to choose a replacement nominee. 

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has leeway regarding calling a special election for purposes of filling the remainder of the current term.  He can schedule a special primary and general within the time limits proscribed by New Jersey election law, or he can make the special general concurrent with the regular election.  The 10th District is heavily Democratic, so the party’s new nomination process will decide who succeeds the late Congressman Payne.

NY-1:  Ex-Rep. Santos Drops New Bid:  Earlier this week, expelled US Rep. George Santos (R) announced that he is dropping his Independent bid in the state’s 1st District, attempting to deny Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) re-election.  In his statement, Mr. Santos said, “I don't want to split the ticket and be responsible for handing the House to the Dems.  Staying in this race all but guarantees a victory for the Dems."  Mr. Santos may be overestimating his ability to draw votes as an Independent or minor party candidate.
​
Rep. LaLota, in a post on X, said he believes Santos ending his candidacy means he is negotiating a plea bargain to the 23 federal charges he soon faces in trial.  In closing, Mr. Santos indicated that, "it's only goodbye for now, I'll be back."  Rep. LaLota, in a district that the new redistricting plan made slightly more Republican, is favored for re-election.

Pennsylvania:  Presidential Primary Results:  Recently, there has been an uptick in President Biden’s polling numbers, particularly in the critical Great Lakes states, and the turnout pattern in last night’s Pennsylvania primary looks to verify those figures.
​
While we had consistently seen higher Republican turnout opposite the Democrats in the earlier primary states around the country, yesterday in the Keystone State, approximately 100,000 more Democrats look to have voted than Republicans once all of the cast ballots are recorded.  President Biden recorded 88.8% in the Democratic primary, while former President Trump took 82.8% on the Republican side.