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As has been reported nationally, Gov. Eric Greitens (R), in order to escape potential felony charges hanging over his head after some were recently dismissed, agreed to resign his office as part of an informal plea bargain arrangement. Lt. Gov. Mike Parson (R) will ascend to the office on Friday after the Governor officially leaves office. This situation has been developing for several months and is associated with the Governor’s highly publicized extra-marital affair. Incoming Gov. Parson, a former state Senator and Representative who represented the region east and south of Kansas City and north of Springfield, will serve through 2020. He would be eligible to run for a full term at that time.
--Jim Ellis Sunshine State Democratic gubernatorial candidate Philip Levine (D), the Mayor of Miami Beach, has put some separation between he and the rest of the primary gubernatorial campaign according to a new Public Policy Polling survey (5/21-22; 583 FL likely Democratic primary voters). The data projects Mayor Levine to be holding a 30-20-12-6% advantage over former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee), Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-Tallahassee), and businessman Chris King, respectively. This is the largest recorded lead for any of the candidates since the field formed earlier in the year and polling began.
The Florida primary is August 28th. Gov. Rick Scott (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Republican primary appears to be breaking into a one-on-one race between Agriculture Commissioner and former Congressman Adam Putnam and US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R- Palm Coast/Daytona Beach). --Jim Ellis Milwaukee Mayor and former Congressman Tom Barrett (D), who has already run three times for Governor, a couple of weeks ago said he was contemplating entering the very large field of Democratic candidates who are vying for the right to challenge Gov. Scott Walker (R). Yesterday, Mayor Barrett announced his decision not to run statewide this year.
In the Democratic primary are 17 individuals who have announced their candidacies for the August 14th primary. The early leader appears to be state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, who has built small leads in several released statewide surveys. The general election, featuring Gov. Walker running for a third term, promises to yield another close finish. --Jim Ellis A new Republican primary poll of the open Governor’s campaign was just released in advance of the June 5th nomination election, and it appears that at-large US Rep. Kristi Noem (R-Castlewood) and Attorney General Marty Jackley are locked in a virtual tie as the candidates enter the stretch run. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy surveyed the South Dakota Republican electorate (5/21-23; 625 SD GOP likely Republican primary voters) and found Rep. Noem clinging to a bare 45-44% lead over AG Jackley. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite to replace term-limited Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) in the general election.
--Jim Ellis The 5th District Republican Committee of Virginia is already taking action to replace retiring freshman Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Scottsville/Charlottesville). The 37-member committee decided that individuals wanting to be considered as a candidate before the panel should make his or her intention known today. The Committee plans to already meet and choose a nominee this Saturday, thus making the June 12th primary a non-event.
Moving quickly limits the number of serious candidates coming forward and makes a campaign for the position virtually non-existent, but allows the chosen candidate to hit the ground running. Democrat Leslie Cockburn, a former CBS News “60 Minutes” producer and mother of actress Olivia Wilde, is unopposed for her party’s nomination. Therefore, the new 5th District general election will begin in earnest during the first of next week. --Jim Ellis New York is the only state in the nation to hold two primaries: one for federal offices (Jun 26), and one for state positions (Sept 13th). Therefore, it is possible for a candidate to run for Congress in June and, if defeated, turnaround and run for state office. Though Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring/West Point) is in no danger for re-nomination in his US House seat, he is publicly toying with the idea of running for state Attorney General since the forced resignation of Eric Schneiderman (D) has created an open seat contest.
Should Rep. Maloney decide to run for AG after being re-nominated on June 26th – the state candidates’ filing deadline is July 12th – then he would have to withdraw from the congressional race and allow the local district party committee, comprised of two full counties (Orange and Putnam) and two partial ones (Dutchess and Westchester) to choose another nominee for the general election. Rep. Maloney says he will make a decision about the open AG’s race on or before June 6th. --Jim Ellis The aforementioned Survey USA and Emerson College polls (see California Senate above) also tested the impending open Governor’s campaign. In both polls, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) retains the lead, as he has in every survey throughout the year. S-USA sees him with 33% jungle primary support, Emerson: 24%. In second place is Republican attorney and former presidential and Illinois Senate candidate John Cox with 16 and 17%, respectively, in the two polls.
It appears former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) may have a hard time forcing a double-Democratic general election. He gets only 8% in the latest S-USA poll, but finds 12% from Emerson College. St. Treasurer John Chiang (D), another significant candidate, pulls ahead of Villaraigosa in the S-USA survey, but behind him in Emerson. Both find Mr. Chiang taking 10% of the vote. The question soon to be answered in the June 5th primary is whether or not the Republicans will be able to secure any statewide general election ballot positions. --Jim Ellis Late last month, former Rhode Island Senator and Governor Lincoln Chafee (R/I/D) indicated he was considering challenging Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse in this year’s Democratic primary. After polls were published showing the Senator crushing Mr. Chafee, he began saying less publicly. Now, according to his announcement yesterday, the former statewide office holder says he will not run for any office this year. After the polling went public, it became obvious that Mr. Chafee would end his fledgling quest for a 2018 political comeback before it even officially began.
--Jim Ellis It appears Sen. Dianne Feinstein and former state Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) will do battle in the general election according to a pair of newly published political polls. Survey USA tested the pre-primary California electorate (5/21-24; 678 CA likely primary voters) and found Sen. Feinstein leading the pack of 32 jungle primary candidates with 36% preference. Sen. de Leon was a distant second with 11%, but the only other contender to reach double-digits.
Emerson College simultaneously surveyed the state (5/21-24; 600 CA registered voters). They find Sen. Feinstein also in the high 30s (38%), but Sen. de Leon barely in second place with 6.1% support, just ahead of attorney Pat Harris’ (D) 6.0%. The California primary is June 5th. With all contenders placed on the same ballot, irrespective of political party preference, the top two finishers will advance to the general election. --Jim Ellis Since the May 8th primary election that nominated Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) as Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D) November challenger, three polls have been released. The latest, from Gravis Marketing (5/22; 543 WV likely general election voters) puts the Senator in his strongest political position, leading Mr. Morrisey, 53-40%. Mr. Manchin’s internal poll, from the Global Strategy Group (5/13-16; 600 WV likely general election voters), found the incumbent’s advantage to be 50-42%. An immediate post-primary WPA Intelligence survey (5/10; 400 WV likely general election voters) actually posted Mr. Morrisey to a two-point edge, 46-44%. The West Virginia race will continue to be a top-tier Republican challenge campaign all the way to November.
--Jim Ellis |
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