On the Memorial Day holiday, Virginia freshman Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Scottsville/Charlottesville) reversed course from his Thursday re-election announcement and will instead retire. He also revealed his alcoholism affliction. The Congressman will still appear unopposed on the June 12th ballot, but will officially withdraw once the primary passes. The local 5th District Republican Party organization will then meet in a special convention to choose a new nominee. The eventual candidate will oppose former CBS News “60 Minutes” producer Leslie Cockburn who is well underway with her campaign. The district still leans Republican, so being able to turn away from a weakened Rep. Garrett should actually help the GOP’s position, even though the post-convention candidate will have to quickly assemble a major congressional campaign from scratch. This race will continue to attract national political attention.
--Jim Ellis Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute (5/22-23; 675 WA likely voters), finds three-term Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) opening her 2018 re-election campaign in robust fashion. The results are hardly unexpected, however, since the tested Republican, former state GOP chair Susan Hutchison, surprisingly decided to enter the race just as candidate filing closed. According to the PPP results, the Senator’s early advantage is 52-36%.
--Jim Ellis A new Dan Jones & Associates poll for the Utah Policy Institute finds former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney holding a commanding lead over the man who topped him in the April 21st Utah Republican state convention. The poll (5/15-25; 295 UT likely Republican primary voters) gives Mr. Romney a 67-24% lead over three-term state Representative and physician Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine). The survey, however, has major methodological flaws. The sampling period is approximately three times too long, and the respondent group size much too small for a statewide campaign. Still, the margin is so overwhelming that there can be little doubt Mr. Romney holds a substantial lead for the June 26th Republican primary.
--Jim Ellis The Tarrance Group, polling for Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R), projects their client to be in strong position as we enter the primary campaign’s final two weeks. The poll (5/20-22; 602 AL likely Republican primary voters) finds Gov. Ivey holding a stout 58-18% lead over Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle. Baptist minister Scott Dawson is next with 7%, while state Sen. Bill Hightower (R-Mobile) posts only 5% support. The Governor’s positive personal image stands at 75% among the GOP respondents tested for this survey. It appears Gov. Ivey is a lock to win the party nomination, and will likely face either Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox or former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb once the Democratic primary is settled. The Alabama primary will be held June 5th.
--Jim Ellis Though Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) had to fight through the courts to secure a ballot position after he was disqualified because of using non-Colorado resident petition circulators, a new political poll suggests he remains in position to win a plurality primary against two strong opponents. Magellan Strategies (5/20-21; 519 CO-5 likely Republican primary voters) conducted a pre-primary survey and find Rep. Lamborn leading the field of candidates attempting to deny him re-nomination.
According to Magellan, Rep. Lamborn posts 37% support as compared to El Paso County Commissioner and former US Senate nominee Darryl Glenn who records 27% preference. State Sen. Owen Hill (R-Colorado Springs) registers 10 percent. Two other minor candidates fail to even reach the 5% plateau. Though Rep. Lamborn continues to post weak Republican primary numbers, as he has through most of his twelve-year congressional career, he appears to again have enough support to win re-nomination on June 26th. Doing so is tantamount to winning re-election in this safely Republican seat. --Jim Ellis It appears more likely than ever that businessman Fred Hubbell will capture the Democratic gubernatorial nomination on June 5th. His chief rival, state Sen. Nate Boulton (D-Des Moines) yesterday suspended his campaign in response to several sexual harassment claims. The move assuredly ends Sen. Boulton’s statewide efforts, though it is too late to remove his name from the ballot. The eventual Democratic nominee would then challenge Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), who is running for her first full term after succeeding former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) upon the latter’s appointment as US Ambassador to China.
--Jim Ellis The Honolulu-anchored 1st Congressional District is again open as Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is once more engaged in a statewide Democratic primary challenge, this time opposite Gov. David Ige. The Merriman River Group, polling for the Honolulu Civil Beat online news and political newsletter, (5/3-5; 967 HI statewide registered voters; 321 HI-1 likely Democratic primary voters), finds state Senator and former congressional candidate Donna Mercado Kim leading the all-important Democratic primary, 26-19% over new Lt. Gov. Doug Chin. Party-switching state Rep. Beth Fukumoto (D-Mililani) is in third place with 11%. No other candidate reaches double-digits. The eventual Democratic nominee wins the seat in November. The Hawaii primary is August 11th.
--Jim Ellis Embattled California Rep. Duncan D. Hunter (R-Alpine), who is reportedly under FBI investigation for campaign finance violations, still fares well in a new Survey USA poll conducted for the San Diego Union Tribune and local Channel 10 News. According to the S-USA results (5/15-20; 567 CA-50 likely June 5th jungle primary voters), Rep. Hunter would lead the upcoming primary vote with 43% support. Placing second with just 10% support is Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar. The 2016 Democratic candidate who opposed Mr. Hunter, Patrick Malloy, is next with 7%, and El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells (R) follows at 6% support. In California, the top two finishers in the primary election, regardless of percentage earned or party affiliation, advance into the general election.
--Jim Ellis A day after Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez won the Lone Star State Democratic gubernatorial nomination, JMC Analytics & Polling released a general election survey taken just days before the primary (5/19-21; 575 TX likely voters). The results find Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading Ms. Valdez by a 48-36% clip. The totals are likely understating Gov. Abbott’s strength because of the pre-primary publicity the Democrats were generating. Additionally, the campaign war chest figures are grossly out of balance. Going into the Democratic run-off election, Ms. Valdez reported having only $115,000 in her campaign account versus almost $41 million in the Governor’s campaign treasury.
--Jim Ellis US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin) released the results of her new OnMessage gubernatorial survey (5/14-17; 600 TN likely GOP primary voters) that post her to a sizable 41-28-9-8% advantage over former state Economic Development Commissioner Randy Boyd (R), State House Speaker Beth Harwell (R-Nashville), and businessman Bill Lee (R). The Tennessee primary is Thursday, August 2nd. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
--Jim Ellis |
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