The Outstanding Races
Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who scored a 51-42% victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). Ms. Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected with a very close win (49.6 – 48.5%) over GOP challenger John James.
The two calls mean that the high number for the Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51. The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.
In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100% of the vote being received. Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats in 15. This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.
Below is a list of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading.
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - Status: 62.3%; Reporting: 50%
Georgia-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) - must reach 50%; Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 97%
Georgia-B: Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - Status: 32.5%; Reporting: 96%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - Status: 26.2%; Reporting: Runoff
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Winner; Status: 51.1%
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) - Winner; Status: 49.6%
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - Status: 48.7%; Reporting: 93%
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) - Status: 63.3%; Reporting: 53%
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) - Status: 52.1%; Reporting: 92%
AZ-6: Hiral Tipirneni (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 76%
CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) - Status: 52.9%; Reporting: 87%
CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) - Status: 53.3%; Reporting: 37%
CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Status: 51.4%; Reporting: 42%
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 77%
CA-39: Young Kim (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 89%
CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 93%
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) - Status: 52.2%; Reporting: 51%
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Status: 51.2%; Reporting: 100%
IA-2: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 100%
IL-14: Jim Oberweis (R) - Status: 50.1%; Reporting: 100%
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Status: 51.8%; Reporting: 100%
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 99%
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) - Status: 53.1%; Reporting: 99%
MI-5: Dan Kildee (D) - Status: 54.3%; Reporting: 100%
MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 97%
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) - Status: 48.6%; Reporting: 100%
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 100%
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 75%
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 85%
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) - Status: 49.7%; Reporting: 65%
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) - Status: 61.3%; Reporting: 99%
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R) - Status: 58.1%; Reporting: 99%
NY-3: George Santos (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 99%
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) - Status: 52.0%; Reporting: 100%
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) - Status: 57.9%; Reporting: 95%
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Status: 50.8%; Reporting: 100%
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) - Status: 51.3%; Reporting: 98%
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 100%
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) - Status: 58.5%; Reporting: 100%
PA-7: Lisa Scheller (R) - Status: 50.7%; Reporting: 86%
PA-8: Jim Bognet (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 86%
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 89%
PA-17: Sean Parnell (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 94%
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R) - Status: 48.8%; Reporting: 99%
UT-4: Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 69%
VA-7: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) - Status: 50.6%; Reporting: 100%
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Status: 54.7%; Reporting: 80%
Washington: No Problem for Inslee
A Strategies 360 survey (9/8-14; 501 WA registered voters; live interview) projects that two-term Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is poised to easily win a third term. The results find the Governor holding a strong 53-37% advantage over local town police chief Loren Culp (R) in a race that was never expected to be competitive.
A just-released Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll (8/24-28; 400 WA-10 likely general election voters) finds former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland (D) posting a strong 43-22% first ballot test lead over state Rep. Beth Doglio (D-Olympia). The two are competing in a double-Democrat general election for the open seat that four-term Rep. Denny Heck (D-Olympia) is vacating to run for Lt. Governor.
After reading supplemental queries, which the pollster describes as “positive balanced profile questions” for each candidate, the Strickland advantage rose to 61-22%. It is clear that Ms. Strickland is the person to beat in this intra-party general election battle.
WA-3: Rep. Beutler Leads in New Poll
Five-term Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground/ Vancouver) defeated college professor Carolyn Long (D) by a 53-47% margin in a 2018 race that featured a combined $6.8 million being spent not including outside organization independent expenditures. A newly released RMG Research poll (7/29-8/4; 500 WA-3 registered voters) tested this year’s re-match, which appears to be the contest’s first published poll. RMG finds Rep. Beutler to be holding a four-point lead, 44-40%, over Ms. Long.
WA-10: Finalists Projected
Though ballot counting continues from the August 4th all-mail primary, it appears that the general election is set. Two Democrats from the state’s jungle primary format for the open congressional seat, former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland and state Rep. Beth Doglio (D-Olympia), will advance into the general election from the field of 19 candidates. Ms. Doglio’s small lead over former state Rep. Kristine Reeves (D) is holding and, considering the number of ballots remaining to count, it is clear that the latter woman cannot erase the former’s slight advantage. Therefore, we will see a competitive double Democrat general election.
The 10th District incumbent, four-term Rep. Denny Heck (D-Olympia), is running for Lt. Governor and qualified for the general election. Finishing first, but well short of a majority with 25.7% of the counted voted, Mr. Heck will face state Senate Majority Leader Marko Liias (D) in November.
As more votes are tabulated, updates are available for the August 4th primary campaigns that were too close to call.
Michigan’s 6th District Democratic primary was a seesaw affair between state Rep. Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo), who spent over $760,000, and teacher Jen Richardson, who expended just over $66,000. In the end, Mr. Hoadley prevailed 52-48%, and now advances into the general election to face veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph).
In the state’s open 10th District Republican contest, financial executive Lisa McClain, who self-funded $1.4 million of the $1.6 million she spent, defeated state Rep. Shane Hernandez (D-Port Huron), 42-36%, to secure the GOP nomination. In Michigan’s CD 10, doing so is tantamount to winning the seat in the Fall.
The Washington jungle primary results in that state’s open 10th District are still days away from being final because they allow ballots to come in after Election Day, but we do see an update. With an estimated 51% of the vote tallied, former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland (D) is projected as clinching one of the general election slots with just 21.5% of the vote.
The second position is up for grabs between state Rep. Beth Doglio (D-Olympia) at 14.5% and former state Rep. Kristine Reeves (D) who records 13.0% preference. The top finishing Republican is Rian Ingrim in fourth position with 10.8 percent. Under Washington’s jungle primary law, the top two finishers advance into the general election regardless of vote percentage earned. In all, 19 Democrats, Republicans and Independents were on the ballot.
Incumbent 10th District Rep. Denny Heck (D-Olympia) is leaving the House to run for Lt. Governor and finished first with 27.2% of the vote. It appears he and fellow Democrat Marko Liias (16.9%), the state Senate Majority Floor Leader, will advance into the general election.
Most Important Summer Primary
Voters in five states will cast their ballots today, including the controversial Kansas Senate Republican primary. The state also features three important congressional primaries and one, in the 2nd District, that could deny freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka) re-nomination. Electorates are also voting in Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Arizona and Michigan feature Senate races, but the general elections in both states are set. Governors’ races are occurring in Missouri and Washington.
Washington: Inslee Cruising
Survey USA, polling for KING-TV in Seattle, released a study for the upcoming August 4th Washington jungle primary (7/22-27; 513 WA likely primary voters) that finds Gov. Jay Inslee (D), running for a third term after withdrawing from the presidential race, holding a very comfortable lead. According to S-USA, he would capture 55% of the vote. His next closest rival is local police chief Loren Culp (R) who has only 9% support. Businessman Tim Eyman (R) is close behind Culp with 8%, while all others post 6% or less; therefore, Gov. Inslee is a lock for re-election in November.
In the open Lt. Governor’s race, retiring US Rep. Denny Heck (R-Olympia) has opened a significant lead according to S-USA. He scores 34% preference, while businessman Joseph Brumbles (R) and state Senate Majority Floor Leader Marko Liias (D-Edmonds) battle for the second general election position. The latter two men are tied with 14% in the S-USA poll.
Washington: Gov. Inslee Way Ahead
Survey USA (5/16-19; 530 WA likely voters) tested the August 4th jungle primary in the state of Washington and found Gov. Jay Inslee (D) easily ahead of all potential opponents in his quest for a third term. None of his potential opponents have developed much in the way of statewide name identification, thus leading to Gov. Inslee developing leads of between 22 and 29 points against each of four general election possibilities.
Washington: Candidate Filing Closes
A large slate of candidates will adorn the jungle primary ballot in Washington State on August 4th, with the top two finishers in every election advancing to the general. There is no Senate race in Washington this year, and among the ten House campaigns only two appear competitive.
The 3rd District again features a battle between five-term Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground/Vancouver) and college professor Carolyn Long (D). The Congresswoman won an expensive 2018 campaign with a 53-47% margin.
The open 10th District (Rep. Denny Heck-D running for Lt. Governor) that sits in the Olympia area will likely remain in Democratic hands, but it is unclear who will emerge. Eight Democrats, eight Republicans, and three Independents will be on the jungle primary ballot.
One race that was competitive in 2018 but won’t be in 2020 is in the eastern 5th District. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane) only faces comedian Chris Armitage (D) this year, and he hasn’t even filed a 2nd Quarter campaign finance disclosure report, meaning virtually no money has been raised.
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