West Virginia: Poll - Tied Senate Race
The polling firm handling Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s (R) campaign for US Senate just released a new study that flies in the face of other recent results. The 1892 organization (9/24-25; 500 WV likely voters) finds Mr. Morrisey fighting back to tie Sen. Joe Manchin (D) at 45-45%. Other polls have found Sen. Manchin holding about a nine-point advantage, but this latest data is the first to surface in many weeks.
It is quite possible that Morrisey is moving to close the gap, especially with the 1892 analysts finding that Independents are now breaking his way, but more data will be required to prove that this result is not an anomaly.
New Mexico: Gary Johnson Gaining
The NSON Opinion Strategies firm, polling for the Elect Liberty PAC (9/20-24; 932 NM likely voters) finds Libertarian US Senate nominee and ex-two term New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson edging closer to Sen. Martin Heinrich (D). According to the latest poll, Sen. Heinrich draws 35% support with Mr. Johnson solidly in second position at 28%. The Republican nominee, Labor Commission member Mick Rich, drops all the way to 10% according to this particular poll.
Again, it appears that Mr. Johnson can become a credible candidate in this Senate race, but the three-way slate with he and Mr. Rich dividing the right-of-center voting base will likely re-elect Sen. Heinrich with plurality support.
South Dakota: Shock Results
The last Democratic Governor of South Dakota was Harvey Wollman, who left office at the beginning of 1979. A new poll, however, suggests that state Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton (D-Burke) is not only competitive against US Rep. Kristi Noem (R-Castlewood) for the opportunity of succeeding term-limited Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R), but places him three points ahead.
According to Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, polling for the Sutton Campaign (9/20-24; 500 SD likely voters), the Democratic nominee holds a 45-42% edge over Ms. Noem. Mr. Sutton, a former professional rodeo performer who suffered a broken back in an accident at an event and is now paralyzed from the waist down, has had momentum in this race from the very start. Starting out behind 53-40%, Sutton pulled to within 46-42% in a July poll, and now has reversed the standing. It remains to be seen if the Sutton momentum can be sustained through Election Day.
The aforementioned NSON Opinion Strategies poll (see New Mexico Senate above) projects a tight gubernatorial contest. In the statewide battle of two US House members, Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) now holds just a 44-40% lead over Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs). The latest poll, from the Albuquerque Journal (9/7-13) had Ms. Grisham leading 50-43%. Five polls have been taken since the 1st of August, and all give her an average percentage of 48. This contrasts to Mr. Pearce’s average of 42%.
Michigan: Tightening to Single-Digits
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gretchen Whitmer, a former state House Minority Leader, has held a commanding lead in the open Governor’s race since the state’s August 7th primary.
Though she maintains a lead well beyond the margin of error in the latest poll completed earlier in the week, a new EPIC MRA survey for television station WOOD in Grand Rapids, Holland, and Kalamazoo (9/21-24; 600 MI likely voters), finds Ms. Whitmer’s advantage trending away from double-digits. Still, she holds an eight-point lead over Attorney General Bill Schuette (R), 45-37%. Though his standing is stronger, Mr. Schuette must make up considerable ground in the waning days of this statewide campaign.
MI-8: Challenger Tops Incumbent
Former Defense Department official Elissa Slotkin has been one of the Democrats’ top challenger candidates. She raised more than $3 million through the July 18th pre-primary disclosure deadline for her congressional campaign, and now brandishes a poll that posts her ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Rochester/Lansing).
According to her Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research 8th District survey (9/17-20; 400 MI-8 likely voters), Ms. Slotkin has jumped out to a 47-43% lead over the two-term Congressman. Mr. Bishop was first elected here in 2014 after then-Rep. Mike Rogers (R) decided not to seek an eighth term. He won the competitive open seat contest with a 55-42% margin, followed by a decisive 56-39% re-election win. This central Michigan race promises to be close all the way to Election Day.
NJ-2: Conventional Wisdom Correct
It was always believed that when veteran New Jersey Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor City) decided to retire Democratic state Senator Jeff Van Drew would succeed him. Such predictions are proving accurate as underscored in the latest William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University survey (9/12-18; 535 NJ-2 adult likely voters).
According to the data, Sen. Van Drew holds a 55-32% margin over Republican Seth Grossman. The spread is not surprising since the National Republican Congressional Committee has already abandoned the seat. No outside funding will be coming to the district to help Grossman, largely because of a previous history of making wrongful racial comments. With no real funding source for the GOP nominee, the 23-point margin for Sen. Van Drew is believable, even in a Republican district.
Ohio: Sen. Brown Up in Pair of Polls
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has opened up a strong double-digit lead over US Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) according to two national polls. The NBC News/Marist College survey (9/16-20; 796 OH registered voters; 564 OH likely voters) finds the Senator topping Renacci and three minor party and independent candidates, 49-33-6-3-1%.
The Ipsos/Reuters study (9/13-21; 1,074 OH likely voters via online responses) largely confirms the result. They find the Senator expanding his advantage to 11 points in a 50-39% percentage spread. Though certain early polling models suggested that Renacci had an outside path to score an upset, there is little in the way of current data to back such a supposition.
Florida: Another Boost for Gillum
Billionaire and environmental activist Tom Steyer who already put forth more than $1.4 million in an independent expenditure to help Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum claim the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, is committing much more for the remaining weeks of the general election.
Sources indicate that Steyer is planning to spend and distribute over $5.2 million in order to help Gillum, giving it to labor and other left of center organizations in order to fund messages to help Gillum and hinder the GOP nominee, resigned Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach). The new contributions would bring his total support giving for Mayor Gillum to a huge $6.6 million.
While most polling for the past several weeks has projected Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Gov. Rick Scott (R) to be locked in a dead heat tie, the new Quinnipiac University survey is giving the incumbent quite a large lead. The survey (9/20-24; 888 FL self-identified likely voters) projects Sen. Nelson to a 53-46% advantage.
The results are unusual for several reasons. First, the undecided factor being only one percentage point is virtually unheard of more than a month from the election. In other Florida polling, the undecided/don’t know rate is anywhere from a low of six points to a high of ten. To underscore, the new NBC News/Marist College poll (9/16-20; 829 FL registered voters; 600 FL likely voters) finds the contest leaning to Sen. Nelson, but by only a 48-45% count among likely voters, and 48-43% within the registered voter segment.
Though the partisan breakdown questions the same number of Republicans and Democrats (35% apiece with 27% identifying themselves as Independents), the sampling universe appears to have a liberal skew. President Trump’s job approval rating in this poll is 44:54% favorable to unfavorable, which is much lower than in other polls. Sen. Nelson records 53:41% while Gov. Scott only posts an upside down 46:51%. All of these ratings are inconsistent with other polling, being too high for Democrats and two low for Republicans.
Therefore, the Q-Poll is either an anomaly or a new trendsetter. It will take further polling to determine which position is more accurate.
The Rundown Blog
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