While most polling for the past several weeks has projected Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Gov. Rick Scott (R) to be locked in a dead heat tie, the new Quinnipiac University survey is giving the incumbent quite a large lead. The survey (9/20-24; 888 FL self-identified likely voters) projects Sen. Nelson to a 53-46% advantage.
The results are unusual for several reasons. First, the undecided factor being only one percentage point is virtually unheard of more than a month from the election. In other Florida polling, the undecided/don’t know rate is anywhere from a low of six points to a high of ten. To underscore, the new NBC News/Marist College poll (9/16-20; 829 FL registered voters; 600 FL likely voters) finds the contest leaning to Sen. Nelson, but by only a 48-45% count among likely voters, and 48-43% within the registered voter segment.
Though the partisan breakdown questions the same number of Republicans and Democrats (35% apiece with 27% identifying themselves as Independents), the sampling universe appears to have a liberal skew. President Trump’s job approval rating in this poll is 44:54% favorable to unfavorable, which is much lower than in other polls. Sen. Nelson records 53:41% while Gov. Scott only posts an upside down 46:51%. All of these ratings are inconsistent with other polling, being too high for Democrats and two low for Republicans.
Therefore, the Q-Poll is either an anomaly or a new trendsetter. It will take further polling to determine which position is more accurate.
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