Wisconsin:  Marquette Poll Yields Surprising Responses:  Marquette University Law School released their quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll (6/12-20; 871 WI registered voters; live interview) and found some seemingly inconsistent answers particularly relating to former President Trump’s New York conviction.

On the presidential ballot test question, the registered voter sample broke 50-50% between President Biden and former President Trump when undecideds were pushed, and 44-44% on the initial question.  Among those respondents considering themselves definite or likely voters, Mr. Biden held a 51-49% edge when respondents were pushed.  When the independent and minor party candidates were added to the questionnaire, Mr. Trump went ahead 43-40%. 
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Perhaps most noteworthy, in responding to the question regarding Trump’s conviction, by a 54-28% margin, independents believe the former President is guilty of the charges.  Yet, on the ballot test question, independents still broke for Trump 57-41%.  This means that many of the Wisconsin respondents who believe Trump was guilty are still willing to vote for him in the general election.

Montana:  Sheehy Leading in Latest Survey:  Largely confirming the previously published Emerson College poll, a new survey again shows former President Trump with a huge Montana lead and GOP US Senate candidate Tim Sheehy far behind the top of the ticket but still within a position to win.  The Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (6/3-5; 500 MT likely general election voters; live interview & text) finds Mr. Sheehy pulling ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) with a 46-43-4% lead.  The ballot test included Libertarian candidate Sid Daoud, but not Green Party nominee Robert Barb.  Both are expected to be on the general election ballot.
 
In a straight Tester-Sheehy head-to-head result, the two men are tied at 48% apiece, but 41 of Sheehy’s 48% say they are definitely voting for him versus only 35% of Sen. Tester’s contingent who say likewise. 

Former President Trump leads President Biden by a whopping 54-36%.  The generic question, i.e., “would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate for Senator,” breaks 52-40% in favor of the Republican.
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Wisconsin:  Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead in Regular Poll:  As stated in the presidential section above, the Marquette Law School released their regular quarterly poll of the Wisconsin electorate (6/12-20; 871 WI registered voters; live interview) and in the Senate race again finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading Republican Eric Hovde by a 52-47% count when the undecided respondents were prompted to make a choice.  On the initial question, Sen. Baldwin led 45-38% with 17% indicating they are undecided. 

VA-5:  Rep. Good’s Recount Timetable:  Local news reports are confirming that Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) will request and pay for a recount of the June 18th primary results that find him trailing state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) by 374 votes according to the Virginia Board of Elections official count.  The certification deadline is July 2nd.  After certification, a candidate can request a recount. 

Though a 374 vote difference is not large – it translates into 6 tenths of a percentage point from a turnout of 62,792 votes – it is unlikely that a recount will change the final totals by such an amount.  Rep. Good is also challenging the handling of ballots in the city of Lynchburg, a locality where the Congressman won.  Lynchburg election officials say the Good challenge would affect less than 10 ballots even if his argument is proven correct.

WI-3:  Looming Close Race:  The GQR survey research firm went into the field over the June 10-16 period (400 WI-3 likely general election voters; live interview) and finds western Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) holding only a small lead over small business owner Rebecca Cooke (D).  The ballot test favors the freshman Congressman by just a 50-46% margin.  Mr. Van Orden’s favorability index, however, is barely positive at 41:40%. 
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Wisconsin’s 3rd District, anchored in the city of La Crosse and spans through all or part of 19 western counties.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a virtually even partisan lean.  Former President Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a 51.5 - 46.8% victory margin despite losing the statewide count.  Prior to Mr. Van Orden converting this seat to the Republican column in 2022, Democrat Ron Kind represented the district for 26 years.

Senate – 6/27/24

Maryland: Alsobrooks Develops Significant Lead:  A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) opening an advantage over ex-Gov. Larry Hogan (R) despite the latter man’s favorable ratings. 

The PPP survey (6/19-20; 635 MD voters) sees Ms. Alsobrooks leading Mr. Hogan and a series of independents and minor party candidates (cumulatively), 45-34-5%. In a head-to-head ballot test, she leads Mr. Hogan 48-40%. This, despite a positive Hogan favorability index of 50:33%.  The biggest drag for Hogan is from the top of the Maryland ticket where President Biden leads former President Trump, 56-30%.   

Nevada:  Race Tightens:  A new survey from a Democratic and Republican polling team finds a closer Senate race than the Emerson College poll conducted during the same period. The Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) survey, commissioned for AARP (6/12-18; 600 NV likely general election voters; live interview & text) sees Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), riding a media ad blitz, leading Republican Sam Brown, 47-42%, while former President Donald Trump has a 44-37-10% advantage over President Biden and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I). 

Conversely, Emerson College’s study (6/13-18; 1,000 NV registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Rosen with a much larger lead over Mr. Brown, 50-38%.  While there is a clear advantage for Sen. Rosen in the most recent polling, this race will still be highly competitive come November.

House – 6/27/24

MO-1:  Rep. Bush in Dead Heat:  The Mellman Group, conducting a survey for the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (6/18-22; 400 MO-1 registered Democratic voters; live interview & text), sees challenger Wesley Bell, a former St. Louis County prosecutor, pulling into a one point, 43-42%, lead over Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), a member of the Socialist Democrat “Squad.” The Mellman analysis finds that Mr. Bell has closed the gap against the incumbent since January, seeing a net 17-point swing in his favor.

We can expect heavy outside spending coming into the district before the August 6th primary.  The pro-Israel organizations were successful in helping to defeat another Squad member, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), in Tuesday night’s Democratic primary. Rep. Bush is another of the most anti-Israel congressional members and a top target of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the DMFI PAC.

WA-3:  Dead Heat Poll:  A new Public Policy Polling survey, regularly conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute (6/11-12; 649 WA-3 registered voters; live interview & text), sees Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) trailing 2022 general election finalist Joe Kent (R), by a 46-45% dead heat margin. 
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Washington’s 3rd District, that lies in the far southwestern corner of the state and anchored in the city of Vancouver, is the second-most Republican district that a US House Democrat represents. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+11. In 2022, Ms. Perez defeated Mr. Kent by less than a percentage point in one of the biggest upsets of that election year. The 2024 rematch, which is likely to occur after the state’s August 6th jungle primary, portends to be just as close.  

Primary Results – 6/26/24

Colorado Special Election: Republican Holds District 4: The Republican special election nominee, who agreed to serve only as a caretaker until the general election picks a permanent member, easily won last night’s vote to serve the balance of resigned Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) final term.  Former local mayor Greg Lopez, without spending much money, recorded a strong 58-34% victory over Democratic speechwriter Trisha Calvarese to secure the seat for the GOP in a vote that is projected to draw more than 172,000 cast ballots.  Rep-Elect Lopez will become the 220th member of the Republican conference. 

The House will now be down to two vacancies, one from each party.  The Wisconsin seat of resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) and the death of New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) are the remaining districts without member representation.

Colorado Regular Primary:  GOP in Strong General Election Position:  Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), moving into the district from her western slope 3rd CD, easily captured the GOP nomination, which is usually tantamount to winning in November.  Congress-woman Boebert recorded 43.2% preference to finish first, well ahead of second place finisher Jerry Sonnenberg, a local county commissioner.  He received just 14.5%.  The third, fourth, and fifth place finishers all scored between 13.8 and 10.6% of the vote. 

Elsewhere in the state, attorney Jeff Hurd, despite Democratic attempts to vault Republican former state Rep. Ron Hanks to the 3rd District GOP nomination, won the party primary with 41.5% of the vote over five Republican opponents.  The Hurd victory gives the Republicans their strongest candidate in an attempt to hold Rep. Boebert’s western slope district against 2022 Democratic nominee Adam Frisch who held the Congresswoman to a 546-vote win, the previous cycle’s closest US House race.

In retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn’s (R-Colorado Springs) open 5th District, radio talk show host, and three time congressional candidate Jeff Crank, easily defeated Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams with a whopping 67-33% margin.  Mr. Crank will now assume the seat in the next Congress.

New York: Rep. Bowman Loses Renomination:  The big story of the Empire State’s political evening is Westchester County Executive George Latimer easily defeating US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) in what is being called the most expensive congressional primary in US history.  Approximately $30 million was spent in this campaign when adding the two candidates’ expenditures and including all the outside money.  The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s affiliated Super PAC looks to have spent over $17 million toward defeating Bowman, one of the most ardent anti-Israel House members.  With a majority vote exceeding 58%, Mr. Latimer convincingly denied the Congressman renomination. 

In what will be a very competitive Syracuse based 22nd District general election, as expected, state Senator John Mannion claimed the Democratic nomination last night with a 62-38% victory over local town councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood even though the latter contender won three of the district’s five counties.  Sen. Mannion now advances into a toss-up general election versus freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) in a race that will have national majority implications.

Utah: Rep. Curtis Secures Senate Nomination:  Overcoming the Donald Trump and Utah Republican Party endorsed candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) recorded an impressive 51-29-13-6% victory over Mr. Staggs, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton to win the open Republican US Senate nomination.  The Congressman carried 28 of Utah’s 29 counties.  Mr. Curtis now becomes the strongest of favorites to defeat Democrat Caroline Gleich in the general election.  Rep. Curtis will then succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R). 

The going was much tougher for freshman Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) who eked out what will likely be a 51-49% win over businessman Colby Jenkins who had strong support from US Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT).  Rep. Maloy will now advance into the general election where she will secure her first full congressional term.

In Rep. Curtis’ open District 3, Trump and state party endorsed candidate Mike Kennedy, a physician and state Senator, scored a crowded primary victory with 36% of the vote over four Republican opponents.  State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, who ran as the MAGA opposition candidate, calling himself “mainstream” fell to a last place finish with just 8% of the vote.  In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, Sen. Kennedy will have little trouble securing the seat in November.

South Carolina Runoff:  Close Finish in District 3:  The lone South Carolina congressional runoff occurred in the state’s western open 3rd District from which Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is retiring.  In a very close finish, Gov. Henry McMaster’s (R) endorsed candidate, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, defeated Donald Trump endorsed pastor Mark Burns, 51-49%, after the latter man finished first in the June 11th primary.  In another safe Republican district (538 rating: R+44), Ms. Biggs is now a lock to claim the seat in the general election.
 

Primaries – 6/25/24

Nomination Election Today: Three States and a Special Election:  Today brings us another series of important primaries. Voters in Colorado, New York, Utah, and South Carolina will decide nominations in either primary elections or a congressional runoff and special election. 

It is likely that Utah Republican voters will effectively elect a new US Senator tonight. Three House incumbents in the various primary states are in highly competitive races, the most vulnerable of whom is two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).  Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) also face serious intra-party challenges.  A South Carolina runoff will effectively elect a new House member, and eastern Colorado voters will fill resigned Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) vacancy for the remainder of the current term.

Senate – 6/25/24

Florida:  Ex-Rep. Mucarsel-Powell Loses AFL-CIO Endorsement:  While former one-term Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell appears to be the favorite for the Democratic US Senate nomination, the official AFL-CIO endorsing convention delegates don’t agree. Over the weekend, they overwhelmingly gave their union endorsements to businessman and Navy veteran Stanley Campbell (D) over Ms. Mucarsel-Powell.  The winner of the August 20th Democratic primary will challenge Sen. Rick Scott (R) in November.

Many of the delegates believe Ms. Mucarsel-Powell is a weak candidate and could not defeat Sen. Scott, especially now that the Florida voter registration report reveals there are 906,000 more Republicans than Democrats in the state.  When Sen. Scott was last on the ballot (2018), the state was still plurality Democratic.  Ms. Mucarsel-Powell was elected to the House in 2018 but failed to hold the lean Democratic seat in the next election, losing to current US Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami). 

House – 6/25/24

VA-5:  Rep. Good to Challenge Lynchburg Count:  Reports emanating from central Virginia suggest that Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), still attempting to deny certification of state Sen. John McGuire’s 333-vote Republican primary victory, will apparently challenge the vote in the city of Lynchburg. 

This is an interesting ploy since Rep. Good carried this domain.  Thus, the move is an indication of attempting to buy time in order to attempt to find further ways of overturning the primary result.  The Congressman must file today since June 25th is the day that localities must report their final election totals to the State Board of Elections.
 

Governor – 6/25/24

Missouri:  Tightening Republican Primary:  A new poll finds a change in the open Missouri Governor’s race.  Emerson College tested the Show Me State gubernatorial race (6/17-19; 489 MO registered Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and projects Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who had previously enjoyed large primary leads, now topping Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe by only a 23-20% margin with state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) at 6 percent. 

The Missouri primary is scheduled for August 6th.  The eventual Republican nominee will have the inside track to winning the November election.  Current Gov. Mike Parson (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

States – 6/25/24

Louisiana:  Rep. Graves Possibly to File for Public Service Commission: On a Louisiana politics podcast, Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who is left without a winnable district in which to seek re-election this year under the state’s new court-ordered congressional map, may file for an open seat on the Louisiana Public Service Commission. 
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Mr. Graves confirmed he is considering such a move.  The current Republican incumbent, Dr. Craig Greene, MD, announced last week that he will not seek re-election. The Commission regulates public utilities in Louisiana and also has a role in transportation issues.  In an open election from a PSC district that includes much of his current congressional district, Rep. Graves would be a formidable candidate to secure the position.

​President – 6/24/24

Democratic National Committee: Moving Toward Virtual Roll Call: Though the Democratic National Committee leadership has not yet set a date for the virtual roll call to nominate President Biden for a second term, the party is making moves to prepare for such an eventuality.  The leadership has confirmed that the party platform hearings and adoption will be conducted virtually and occur during the week of the Republican National Convention, which begins July 15th.  To comply with the Ohio law that requires the parties to provide official nominees’ names to the state for ballot placement 90 days before the election means that the virtual nomination roll call will occur before August 7th. 

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.:  Attempting to Qualify in Two More States:  Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr’s. spokespeople announced that the campaign will attempt to qualify for the ballot in Pennsylvania and in Florida.  In the latter state, Mr. Kennedy will attempt to become the nominee of the Natural Law Party of Florida.  The organization, which recently regained its status as a political party under Florida election law, will hold a nominating convention in July.

Senate – 6/24/24

Montana: Favorable Republican Polling Numbers: Public Opinion Strategies tested the Montana electorate (6/11-13; 500 MT likely general election voters; live interview) and found both former President Trump and Governor Greg Gianforte enjoying large leads over their Democratic opponents, while US Senate candidate Tim Sheehy (R) and Sen. Jon Tester (D) are tied. 

According to the ballot test results, Mr. Trump leads President Biden, 50-32%, and 57-37% when respondents confirm they are leaning to one candidate or the other.  Gov. Gianforte leads his Democratic opponent, former gun industry executive turned gun control activist Ryan Busse, by a 38-24% definite voter margin and 54-33% when those leaning to either man are included.

In the Senate race, the pattern present in other states where the Republican Senate candidate is running well behind Mr. Trump’s standing, is also present in Montana.  Retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Sheehy trails Sen. Tester 39-36% on the definite vote, while the two are tied at 46% apiece when leaners are added to the aggregate total.

House – 6/24/24

VA-5: Rep. Good to Move for Recount:  With the final vote tally in the VA-5 Republican congressional primary showing a 333 vote victory margin for state Senator John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot), incumbent Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) is indicating he will move for a full districtwide recount and suggests voter fraud influenced the outcome.

Though the 333 vote figure is a small number from a total of 62,585 total votes cast, it is unlikely that a recount will change the result to the point of overturning the election.  Additionally, the charges of potential vote fraud are interesting in that Rep. Good far outperformed the early ballot test polling, a pattern that appears inconsistent with an alleged major vote fraud operation designed to help Sen. McGuire.

Debate Decisions:  Kennedy Out; Stein Files Complaint:  CNN, the host of the June 27th presidential debate, announced that Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Green Party nominee Jill Stein have not qualified for the national forum.  The main criteria of reaching 15% support in a series of major polls was not met by either candidate.  Mr. Kennedy believes he still should be included and will attempt to qualify for the second debate to be scheduled for later in the year. 

For her part, Ms. Stein is filing a complaint against CNN with the Federal Election Commission, following Mr. Kennedy’s own complaint, disputing the debate criteria as a violation of her rights as a candidate for federal office.
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Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.:  Nevada Ballot Status in Jeopardy:  The Nevada Democratic Party is reportedly preparing to file a lawsuit in Nevada state court arguing that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) should be removed from the state’s general election ballot.  Their argument is that Mr. Kennedy does not qualify under Nevada law as an Independent because he remains a registered Democrat.  It remains to be seen if this lawsuit will gain legs.  

New Mexico:  Sen. Heinrich Leads by 7 in New Poll:  Public Policy Polling went into the field to test the New Mexico electorate (6/13-14; 555 NM registered voters; live interview & text) and projects two-term Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) to hold a seven point lead over Republican Nella Domenici, 47-40%. 

Signs are increasing that New Mexico could become more competitive both in the presidential and Senatorial contests.  With the state’s plurality Hispanic population and the GOP performing better within that demographic, it appears possible for Republicans to record improved numbers in New Mexico’ general election.  While it would not now be particularly surprising to see closer election results in November, Republicans are still a long way from winning either at the presidential or Senatorial level in the Land of Enchantment.

Emerson College:  Releases Series of Senate Polls:  The Emerson College polling unit, in conjunction with The Hill newspaper, conducted a series of polls in six Democratic Senate states and released the data yesterday.  The six domains are Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  In each place, the pollsters surveyed 1,000 registered voters during the June 13-18 period. 

While testing the Senate races in the five most competitive states, excluding Minnesota, Emerson also asked the presidential ballot test question.  In all five situations, within the same polling samples that produced Democratic leaders in each Senate campaign, former President Trump simultaneously posted an advantage.  Thus, we are already seeing the seeds of an unusually large degree of ticket splitting beginning to develop.

According to the Emerson numbers, Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), 45-41%.  Looking at their Michigan results, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) tops former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), 43-39%.  In Nevada, Sen. Jackie Rosen (D) enjoys the largest lead of any key swing state.  She tops Afghan War veteran Sam Brown, 50-38%.  Moving east, the Emerson numbers yield Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) a 47-41% edge.  And, Sen. Tammy Balwin (D-WI), while still leading, sees her margin over Republican Eric Hovde drop to just 46-44%. 
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In addition to Republicans converting the open West Virginia seat, they would have to turnaround one of the aforementioned races, or score a victory in three tight race states that Emerson College didn’t survey, Maryland, Montana, or Ohio, in order to secure an outright majority.  

House – 6/20/24
AK-AL: Trump Endorses Lt. Governor: The Alaska at-large district is the most Republican seat that a House Democrat holds.  Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) has won three congressional elections, largely through the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system.  This year, the stage may be set for a similar conclusion.  Businessman Nick Begich, III (R), nephew of former Democratic US Senator Mark Begich (D), ran against former Gov. Sarah Palin in the special election when veteran Rep. Don Young (R) passed away, and for both succeeding regular terms.  This year, while Ms. Palin is not running, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom has joined the Republican congressional field.

Under the Alaska system, all candidates appear on the jungle primary ballot, and the top four advance into the general election irrespective of political party affiliation.  Yesterday, former President Trump announced his endorsement for Ms. Dahlstrom, the candidate who enjoys the national and state Republican Party leadership backing.  With two strong candidates battling for the Republican vote, it is likely that Rep. Peltola will again finish first among the four general election finalists.  The question to be answered is whether she can reach the 50% mark.  If not, Ranked Choice Voting then takes effect.  

Mr. Begich says he will withdraw if Ms. Dahlstrom places ahead of him in the initial qualifying election on August 20th.  Ms. Dahlstrom has yet to make a similar promise.   

In the latest available published poll, though dated, from Data for Progress (2/23-3/2; 1,120 AK-AL likely voters; online), Mr. Begich had a large 41-12% lead over Ms. Dahlstrom.  In a head to head pairing against Rep. Peltola, the Congresswoman and Mr. Begich tied at 50-50%.  Once again, the Alaska at-large campaign is a race to watch.

AZ-6:  Rep. Ciscomani Holds Comfortable Lead:  An internal Public Opinion Strategies poll (5/28-30; 300 AZ-6 likely general election voters; live interview) for the Juan Ciscomani re-election campaign finds the freshman Arizona Congressman holding a 50-39% advantage over former state Senator and 2022 Democratic congressional nominee Kirsten Engel as the two prepare for a rematch from the campaign of two years ago. 

The 6th District, which sits in Arizona’s southeastern corner is politically marginal in nature but made more Republican in the 2021 redistricting plan.  In the previous election, Mr. Ciscomani defeated Ms. Engel, 50.7 – 49.2%, a margin of 5,232 votes.  The same survey finds former President Donald Trump leading President Biden, but with a smaller margin than Rep. Ciscomani’s advantage, 49-45%.  In 2020, Mr. Biden carried this region with the slightest 49.3 – 49.2% edge.

IL-17: Rare Poll is Published: If there is a competitive seat in the Illinois delegation, it is the far western 17th District, anchored in the Quad Cities, that freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) now represents.  Republicans nominated retired circuit judge Joe McGraw back in March. The 1892 survey research organization just released their polling data (released 6/19; 400 IL-17 likely voters; live interview) and the results find Rep. Sorensen holding a 44-35% lead over Mr. McGraw. 

The 17th was highly competitive prior to the last redistricting, but the legislative Democrats who drew the plan configured the 17th in a much different manner.  The district configuration now resembles the form of a letter “C” beginning in the city of Rockford, then coming west to pick up the Illinois section of the Quad Cities, meaning the cities of Rock Island and Moline, and then turns east to include Galesburg, downtown Peoria, and the territory all the way to Bloomington.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization calculates a D+4 rating for the post-redistricting 17th, but that number should realistically increase because of a new Democratic incumbent seeking re-election.

VA-5: McGuire Declares Victory:  Though the race has not been officially finalized, it does appear that Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) has been defeated for renomination.  His opponent, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot), thinks so and has publicly declared victory. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, all the outstanding votes have now been counted and Mr. McGuire has a 309 vote lead.  With only provisional and overseas ballots left to be received and counted, it is highly unlikely that even this small lead can be overcome. 

Once final, Rep. Good will be the first 2024 cycle incumbent of either party to lose renomination to a non-incumbent challenger.  The only other incumbent defeat in either the Senate or the House occurred in Alabama when Reps. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) were paired in a court ordered redistricting plan. Mr. Moore scored a 52-48% victory on March 5th. Other primary defeats may soon follow, however.  On Tuesday, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Celeste Maloy (R-UT) face serious primary challenges, and Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) attempts to win renomination from a new congressional district.