It appears that former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R) is getting ready to enter the US Senate contest against freshman incumbent Raphael Warnock (D). Mr. Walker remained a Texas resident after staying in the Lone Star State once his professional football career concluded with the Dallas Cowboys. He released a video depicting him standing next to his car as the camera zeroes in on its Georgia license plate, suggesting that he is in the process of moving back to his home state.
Currently in the GOP race are state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, construction company owner Kelvin King, and financial executive and ex-Trump White House aide Latham Saddler.
Early in the week, GOP congressional candidate Anna Paulina Luna, who held Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) to a 53-47% re-election victory in November and has declared her 2022 candidacy for the open seat race, raised eyebrows by going to court requesting a restraining order against her former and future Republican congressional opponent, saying that Will Braddock had threatened to kill her. She also claimed that former opponents Amanda Makki and Matt Tito were also involved.
While there is no evidence to indicate the latter two had any role, the Politico news site has produced a tape of Braddock not only indicating that he would take Ms. Luna’s life, but that he would fund his campaign with European contributions. It appears the 2022 13th District open seat campaign will be even more raucous than in past election cycles.
While the prevailing political wisdom predicts that former state Senator and national Bernie Sanders campaign spokesperson Nina Turner (D) will win both the Democratic special election primary for the vacant Cleveland-Akron anchored congressional district and the special general, one of her many Democratic opponents is becoming a formidable foe.
Cuyahoga County Commissioner and County Democratic Party chair Shontel Brown just unveiled a Hillary Clinton endorsement and launched a major media splash. She is emphasizing her work to deliver jobs and services for the community talks about strengthening small businesses and says she will work with President Biden to bring additional services to the district. In another ad, she contrasts her support for Biden with Ms. Turner’s opposition to him during the Democratic nomination contest.
Ms. Turner will definitely head toward the “Squad” faction in the House, while Ms. Brown is attempting an appeal to the mainstream. This race, with a virtually contest-deciding Democratic primary on August 3rd – the 11th is solidly Democratic – won’t be filled until after the special general election on November 2nd. The seat is vacant because former Rep. Marcia Fudge (D) resigned to become Housing & Urban Development secretary in the Biden Administration.
Days after two-term Pennsylvania Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Devon) announced that she would forego a US Senate run in order to seek re-election to the House, neighboring Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Jenkintown) has followed suit. Rep. Dean this week made known her decision not to enter the Senate race but will seek a third term in the House next year.
The leading Democratic open seat announced candidates are Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia), and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh. Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) and state Sen. Sharif Street (D-Philadelphia) are possible candidates.
Former Arizona Congressman Matt Salmon, who was the 2002 Republican gubernatorial nominee, announced that he will enter the 2022 open Governor’s race a full 20 years after he first ran for the position. Mr. Salmon lost a close plurality gubernatorial election to then-Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano (D) by less than one percentage point. He served five non-consecutive terms in the US House and a pair of two-year terms in the Arizona Senate.
Already in the open Republican primary are state Treasurer Kimberly Yee, State University System Regent Karrin Taylor Robinson, and former television news anchor Kari Lake. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Yesterday, we covered the Marist College media poll of the New York City open Democratic mayoral primary (6/3-9; 876 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) that projected Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams eventually leading the group of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio (D).
Two more polls are reporting slightly differing results. The Public Opinion Strategies (POS) survey (6/9-13; 500 NYC potential Democratic primary voters; live interview) returns numbers that are similarly close to Marist’s. With the large field and the tight spread among the candidates, we can expect perhaps more than ten rounds of counting in the ranked-choice system that is being used for this election.
The POS survey agrees that former NYC Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, civil rights activist Maya Wiley and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang together with Mr. Adams form the top tier of contenders. At the end of the laborious ranked-choice process, POS, like Marist, finds the race evolving into a two-way battle between Mr. Adams and Ms. Garcia that tilts toward the former.
Change Research (6/11-14; 822 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; online) also found a compatible result in their most recent poll, though they project a different winner at the end of the ranked-choice process. Change sees Ms. Garcia edging Mr. Adams in an 11th counting round by a scant 51-49% split.
The closeness of these three polls suggests a wild finish in the campaign’s final days with the four top candidates closely bunched. How voters use the ranked-choice system and whom they select as their latter choices could make the ultimate difference. Election day is June 22nd.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) has been under a federal indictment cloud since 2015 and is now besieged with new accusations of him having an extra-marital affair and ex-aides claiming he accepted bribes. Unsurprisingly, these charges and attacks have already drawn Mr. Paxton serious Republican primary opposition, and now another has come to the forefront.
Stepping down from the Texas State Supreme Court to oppose Mr. Paxton in the Republican primary is Justice Eva Guzman, who began her service on the high court in late 2009. She not only joins the incumbent in the race, but also Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and nephew to former Texas Governor and US President George W. Bush.
The redistricting delays will undoubtedly postpone the Texas primary from its traditional early March date, so even the coming election schedule is an unknown factor in what promises to be a wild campaign.
Show Me State US Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth/outer St. Louis suburbs) announced yesterday that he will not enter the open 2022 US Senate race, choosing to remain in the House where he is an apparent contender to chair the House Financial Services Committee if the Republicans regain the majority in the 2022 elections.
GOP Reps. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin), Billy Long (R-Springfield), and Jason Smith (R-Salem/ Bootheel Region) are still considered possible entrants. Six-term Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) announced her Senate candidacy last week. Former Gov. Eric Greitens and Attorney General Eric Schmitt remain official candidates for the party nomination. Former St. Louis area state Sen. Scott Sifton appears to be the leading Democratic candidate at this early point in the election cycle.
Three media entities, WNBC television in New York, Telemundo 47, and Politico joined to sponsor a Marist College poll of the New York City open Democratic mayoral primary scheduled for next Tuesday, June 22nd. The pollsters (6/3-9; 876 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) carried the ranked choice voting system to its extreme, which is a complicated undertaking, and again found Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams eventually leading the group of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio (D).
It appears that four contenders, Mr. Adams, former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, civil rights lawyer Maya Wiley who has drawn support from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) and the far left, and former NYC Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia form the top tier. Carried through 12 mock rounds of ranked choice voting, Mr. Adams appears to prevail over Ms. Garcia, 56-44%. The eventual Democratic nominee is a virtual cinch to win the November general election.
State Rep. William Bailey (R-Myrtle Beach) who was the first Republican primary challenger to US Rep. Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach) after the Congressman supported the second effort to impeach then-President Trump is now the first to drop out of the race. He announced yesterday that he is exiting the congressional contest but will seek re-election to the state House. He says there are plenty of other conservatives in the race that will prove strong opposition to Mr. Rice.
A total of 11 announced Republicans remain in the primary contest. The top two appear to be Horry County School Board chairman Ken Richardson and former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride. South Carolina features a runoff system, so Rep. Rice will have to obtain majority support among all dozen candidates to avoid a secondary election.
The Rundown Blog
Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.