Former Cleveland state Senator Nina Turner (D) has a substantial spending lead in her special congressional election campaign. Reports are surfacing that Ms. Turner, the 2020 national co-chair of the Bernie Sanders presidential campaign, will disclose spending more than $1 million to date in her campaign to succeed Housing & Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge, who resigned the 11th District seat after being confirmed to her cabinet position. 

It appears Ms. Turner’s spending advantage will almost triple that of her presumed closest Democratic primary rival, Cuyahoga County Commissioner Shontel Brown. The special primary is August 3rd, with the associated general election coming November 2nd. Early voting begins July 7th.

Businessman Steve Gaynor, who defeated a sitting Arizona Secretary of State in the 2018 Republican primary but would then lose the general election by slightly over 20,000 votes from more than 2.33 million ballots cast, announced that he is joining the open Republican gubernatorial campaign. Ironically, the Democrat who defeated him in the Secretary of State’s race, Katie Hobbs (D), is also a current gubernatorial candidate.

In the Republican primary are state Treasurer Kimberly Yee, former US Congressman and 2002 gubernatorial nominee Matt Salmon, ex-news anchor Kari Lake, and Arizona State University Regent Karrin Taylor Robson. In addition to Ms. Hobbs on the Democratic side is former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez, along with state Rep. Aaron Lieberman (D-Paradise Valley) who also just announced his candidacy. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is ineligible to run for a third term.

Over the weekend, the New York Republican Party county leaders met in convention and awarded 85% of their votes to Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) in his race for Governor. This means, according to the state chairman, that Mr. Zeldin is now the “presumptive” 2022 Republican Party gubernatorial nominee. Previously, Mr. Zeldin had received party support individually from a majority of GOP county organizations.

The vote means that the party organization is now authorized to help Mr. Zeldin defeat is GOP primary opponents, former Westchester County Executive and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino, ex-Trump White House aide Andrew Giuliani, son of Rudy Giuliani, and Lewis County Sheriff Mike Carpinelli.

Yesterday was the deadline to accept absentee ballots, and it appears that these 125,000+ votes will decide the Democratic primary outcome. Though the City has not yet released definitive numbers of the Ranked Choice Voting count, estimated reports suggest that Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams’ virtual ten-point margin in the election night count has decreased to approximately two percentage points. Mr. Adams is citing counting discrepancies that the city elections official acknowledge, so accurate information is difficult to obtain.

In any event, if the Adams’ margin is reduced to just two points over former NYC Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, meaning approximately 3,500 votes, then the 125,000+ absentee ballot could certainly change the outcome. This is especially true when seeing that 32% of the ballots come from Manhattan, more than any of the other four boroughs and a place where Mr. Adams finished third while Ms. Garcia took first place on election night. 
 
City officials are still claiming that they won’t produce a certified winner until mid-July. The first preliminary Ranked Choice Voting count will be released on July 6th.

Businessman and former World Affairs Council president Craig Snyder announced that he will enter the open Senate Republican primary. He joins businessman and former Lt. Governor nominee Jeff Bartos and Afghan War veteran and 2020 congressional candidate Sean Parnell as one of the more significant GOP candidates.

Democratic contenders include Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia), and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh. We can expect further individuals to enter on both sides before the February 2022 candidate filing deadline expires.  Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is retiring after two terms.

A new Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll for the Mike Carey for Congress Campaign (6/23-24; 400 OH-15 likely special election Republican primary voters; live interview) finds the Ohio Coal Association chairman topping the pack of GOP candidates. In the initial ballot test, Mr. Carey leads state Rep. Jeff LaRe (R-Lancaster) by a 20-9% clip with state Sen. Bob Peterson (R-Fayette County) and former state Rep. Ron Hood trailing with 7% apiece.  State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (R-Hilliard) lags behind with 6% support. 

When the respondents are informed that former President Donald Trump has endorsed Mr. Carey, however, his lead swells to a huge 60-8-7-7-6% spread over Mr. Hood, Rep. LaRe, and Sens. Peterson and Kunze. The special primary is August 3rd, with the associated general election coming November 2nd.  Early voting begins July 7th.

Buffalo apparently has not heard the last of four-term Mayor Byron Brown (D). Last week, he lost re-nomination to self-proclaimed socialist India Walton by a 52-45% margin. That spread may close when absentee ballots begin to be counted later today. 

Yesterday, however, the Mayor announced that he will run in the general election as a write-in candidate, hoping yet to salvage a fifth consecutive term in office. Mr. Brown was first elected Mayor in 2005, after previously serving in the New York Senate, as chairman of the New York Democratic Party, and as a member of the Buffalo City Council.

Two political research firms, Echelon Insights and McLaughlin & Associates, ran national surveys to see where potential 2024 party nomination contests might stand at the present time.  Echelon (6/18-22; 1,001 US registered voters; 386 US registered Republican voters; online) tested the general election and a potential Republican primary. They assumed that President Biden would not be on the ballot for the next national campaign. Thus, they paired Vice President Kamala Harris individually against both former President Donald Trump and ex-Vice President Mike Pence.
 
According to Echelon, Ms. Harris would top the ex-President 47-40% and record a 45-36% advantage against Mr. Pence.  McLaughlin sees a different picture, however.  According to their survey (6/16-20; 1,000 US likely voters; 463 likely Democratic primary voters; 444 likely US Republican primary voters), it is Mr. Trump who would lead Ms. Harris, 49-45%.

On the nomination side, Echelon tested only the Republican side and finds Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leading Mr. Pence, 21-14%, with Donald Trump, Jr. finishing third with 7% support.  Ex-UN Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) both followed with 6% support. McLaughlin found Ms. Harris topping Michelle Obama 31-19% on the Democratic side, and Gov. DeSantis leading Mr. Pence and Donald Trump, Jr., 24-19-15%. If the former President was in the GOP race, however, he would dominate the field with 55%.  Following was Gov. DeSantis and Mr. Pence with 9 and 8%, respectively.

The California Secretary of State, Shirley Weber (D), confirmed that another step toward conducting the recall election for Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has been completed.  After signature certification, those who signed the petitions had a six-week period to decide whether they wanted to withdraw their names from the recall petition.  After the period expired, it was determined that only 43 people of the more than 2.1 million submitted signers withdrew their names.

Now, the process heads to the legislature, where the body has 60 days to determine the cost of the recall election. Analysts believe the members won’t take much time in making this last decision since the Democratic strategists now believe it is in Gov. Newsom’s best interest to have a quicker election rather than drag the process out several more months.  Therefore, the laborious pre-recall process will continue, but for how much longer is not yet determined.  Because the Governor is the subject of the recall, the legislature will send their cost report to Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) who has the ultimate authority in scheduling the recall vote.