No Labels:  Christie Says No:  The No Labels Party is seemingly having a difficult time either choosing a presidential nominee or having someone accept their offer of running on their ballot line.  A story emerged that former New Jersey Governor and ex-presidential candidate Chris Christie (R), after being in negotiations with No Labels, has decided not to pursue entering the 2024 presidential general election as this party’s standard bearer.
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Mr. Christie, in announcing his decision, said "I also believe that if there is not a pathway to win and if my candidacy in any way, shape or form would help Donald Trump become president again, then it is not the way forward."  The No Labels membership has voted to field a presidential ticket, but so far, the leadership has not brought forth a national candidate pairing.

Florida Redistricting:  Federal Judicial Panel Rejects Plaintiffs’ Arguments:  A three judge federal panel has rejected a lawsuit claiming that the Sunshine State congressional map violates the 14th and 15th Amendments to the US Constitution.  The ruling’s result means that the current plan will remain in place. 

The Florida map, from which the district electorates chose 20 Republicans and eight Democrats, is the Republicans’ strongest, nationally.  Therefore, not changing this plan boosts GOP chances of maintaining their small majority. 

SC-1:  District Looks to Stand:  With the South Carolina candidate filing deadline upon us on April 1st and the US Supreme Court so far not ruling on the redistricting case before them, the original three judge panel has taken action.  The federal jurists who initially declared the Palmetto State’s 1st District (Rep. Nancy Mace-R) a racial gerrymander ruled yesterday that the current configuration can stand for the 2024 election.  The panel acted because SCOTUS has failed to issue their decision after hearing oral arguments and considering that the filing deadline is Monday. 

The fact that the high court has not yet ruled suggests that the district will stand.  Though the lawsuit was targeted to the racial complexion of the 1st District, changing this seat will invariably alter at least one other.  South Carolina has seven districts that are split in in a 6R:1D ratio. 

NH-2:  First Candidate Announcement Occurs:  A day after six-term New Hampshire US Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) announced that she will not seek re-election, a former gubernatorial nominee came forward to declare for the seat.  Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern (D), who held now-Gov. Chris Sununu (R) to an initial 49-47% victory in 2016, officially threw his hat into the congressional political ring.

New Hampshire’s 2nd District is politically marginal that leans Democratic.  Republicans will certainly contest the seat, but the quick Van Ostern move suggests he will become the early favorite not only for the Democratic nomination, but to hold the seat in November.
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The New Hampshire filing deadline is not until June 14th, so potential candidates have considerable time to make their decisions.  Crowded fields are expected in both parties, but possibly less so for the Democrats now that Van Ostern has quickly declared his intentions.

AL-2:  Figures Records Major Lead in New Runoff Poll:  Impact Research conducted a research study for the upcoming April 2nd Democratic runoff election in Alabama’s new 2nd Congressional District anchored in the Montgomery and Mobile areas.  The survey (3/14-18; 500 likely AL-2 Democratic runoff voters; interactive voice response system and text) sees former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who finished first in the March 5th primary with 43.5% of the vote, leading state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery) by a whopping 59-24% margin. 

The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite in the general election.  President Biden carried this newly configured district with a 56-43% vote spread in 2020.  The state’s congressional map was redrawn to comply with the US Supreme Court ruling in the Alabama racial gerrymandering case. 

AZ-2:  McCarthy Opponent Draws Primary Challenge:  Freshman Arizona Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), who is one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has drawn a primary opponent.  Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith (R) announced yesterday that he would follow through with a challenge to Crane after he filed a campaign committee weeks ago with the Federal Election Commission.

The 2nd Congressional District of Arizona covers the state’s northeastern sector and then stretches into Maricopa County, in and around the Phoenix metro area.  The seat is safely Republican, so the true battle will be in the GOP primary scheduled for July 30th.

NH-2:  Rep. Kuster to Retire:  Six-term New Hampshire US Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election next year.  Her departure paves the way for a competitive primary and general election season.  Ms. Kuster averaged 53.3% of the vote in her six victorious elections, dropping below 50% in 2016 (49.8%) while scoring her strongest vote of 55.8% in 2022.  She was first elected in 2012, defeating then-Rep. Charlie Bass (R) in that year’s general election.

NH-2 becomes the 49th open seat heading into the next election.  Ms. Kuster is the 25th House Democrat not to seek another term.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the western New Hampshire seat as D+2, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks NH-2 as the 21st most vulnerable district in the Democratic Conference.  President Biden, however, recorded a 54-45% victory over Donald Trump in 2020, thus exceeding the typical Democratic performance in this swing seat.

ND-AL:  Clear Leader Emerges:  As candidate filing in North Dakota closed, the race for the open at-large congressional district is becoming clearer.  Former state Senator Tom Campbell (R), viewed as a strong contender, decided not to file for the seat just after outgoing Gov. Doug Burgum (R) announced his Republican primary endorsement of state Public Utilities Commissioner Julie Fedorchak. 

It appears that Ms. Fedorchak is becoming the favorite for the nomination.  With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating North Dakota as R+37 and former President Trump carrying the seat with a 65-32% margin, winning the Republican primary is typically tantamount to claiming the seat in the November election.
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Three-term Congressman Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) is running for Governor.  In addition to Ms. Fedorchak, former state Rep. Rick Becker and farmer and retired Air Force veteran Alex Balazs comprise the open seat GOP primary field.  For the Democrats, educator and 2022 Public Utilities Commission nominee Trygve Hammer is unopposed for the party nomination.
 

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.:  Qualifies in WI; Chooses VP:  Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) has qualified for the ballot in the state of Wisconsin but may have to re-start his petition drive in Nevada.  Mr. Kennedy is reportedly qualified or in strong position to do so in eight states:  Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Utah, and now Wisconsin.  He may have problems in Nevada, however.  The submitted petitions may be disqualified because Mr. Kennedy did not list a Vice Presidential running mate, which is a requirement under Nevada election law. 

Yesterday, however, Mr. Kennedy announced that wealthy entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan, the founder of the ClearAccessIP legal technology company that she later sold, will be his Vice Presidential running mate.  Ms. Shanahan is, like Mr. Kennedy, an environmental activist.  She contributed $4 million to his campaign to help finance the Super Bowl ad that the Kennedy campaign ran to emphasize his family history.  In the 2020 presidential race, Ms. Shanahan contributed to Democratic candidates Pete Buttigieg and Marianne Williamson.

Of the eight states in which his name will so far appear, four are critical swing battlegrounds.  Therefore, the Kennedy candidacy could affect the final result in the highly competitive entities of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin. 

Morning Consult:  Releases Latest Swing State Data:  The Morning Consult organization released the latest data on their continuing swing state tracking project.  This iteration shows improvement for President Biden as he records a one point edge in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan.  The tracking polls were conducted from October through March, and regularly surveyed at least 437 registered voters from each of the seven tested states.
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The sampling universes in the remaining four states, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, continue to support former President Trump.  Unless one of the tied states (MI, PA) falls Mr. Trump’s way, he cannot win a majority in the Electoral College even though he continues to poll ahead in the majority of swing states.

Pennsylvania:  Casey’s Lead Diminishing:  Two new polls are suggesting that the Pennsylvania Senate race is getting closer.  Susquehanna Research just released a statewide survey completed in early March (2/27-3/5; 450 PA likely voters; live interview) that projects Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) by a 48-42% margin.  The result is virtually the same as the firm found in January (Casey leading 46-42%), but considerably different than the twelve point Casey advantage they detected in their survey from ten months ago.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper (3/10-13; 1,000 PA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees an even tighter 52-48% margin when the undecided respondents are pushed for an answer. 

While the current tendencies appear to give Mr. McCormick’s some momentum, the voter history, and legacy of the Casey family – aside from Sen. Casey winning three US Senate terms, the incumbent’s father, Bob Casey, Sr., served two terms as Governor and eight years as Attorney General – suggest upending the Senator remains a very tall order.

Texas:  Cruz’s Zig Zag Polling Pattern:  The latest Texas statewide survey finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leading US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) only by a relatively small margin.  Marist College (3/18-21; 1,117 TX registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Cruz holding a 51-45% advantage over Mr. Allred.  A month ago, the University of Texas found the Senator holding a 12-point lead.  In January, Emerson College saw Mr. Cruz claiming only a two-point edge. 

It would not be surprising to see a similar zig-zag pattern continue through the bulk of the election period.  Because Sen. Cruz’s favorability numbers tend to be below average for a two-term incumbent, the issue matrix within this campaign cycle, particularly in Texas, will favor the Republican office holder. 
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Though Rep. Allred is certainly a credible Democratic challenger it is difficult to see Sen. Cruz, or any Lone Star State Republican, losing.  President Biden leading the Democratic ticket and having to defend his energy and border policy stances in a state where his party hasn’t scored a major statewide win since 1994 increases the difficulty factor for a Democratic upset at all political levels.  Therefore, expect to see differing polls throughout the campaign cycle, but the actual election will likely culminate in a Cruz victory margin of at least five percentage points. 

New Jersey:  First Lady Suspends Campaign:  New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy (D), who had been fighting with Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) over county Democratic Party endorsements that yield favorable ballot placements, surprisingly has ended her campaign.  Mr. Murphy said she didn’t want to spend money attacking another Democrat when the funds could be used to help defeat former President Trump.

The more likely reason for her withdrawal decision is failing to see a viable victory path after falling behind Mr. Kim in early polling.  Additionally, the latter man’s lawsuit against the state for the county ballot placement system that awards a favorable line position might well be successful, thus derailing the advantage she gained by winning endorsements in several entities.  The development makes Rep. Kim a prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to winning the general election. 

West Virginia:  Gov. Justice Way Up in GOP Primary Poll:  Emerson College, polling for WOWK-13 television station in the Charleston-Huntington market (3/19-21; 735 WV likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Gov. Jim Justice holding a commanding 54-17% lead over US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) with the West Virginia primary now seven weeks away on May 14th.  Without incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the race, the eventual GOP nominee becomes a heavy favorite to convert the seat in the general election. 
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In the Governor’s race, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) also enjoys a GOP primary advantage according to the same poll.  Mr. Morrisey holds a 33-16-14-6% advantage over businessman Chris Miller, former state Delegate Moore Capito, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively.  Mr. Miller is the son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), while Mr. Capito is Sen. Shelley Moore Capito’s (R-WV) son.  Here, too, the eventual Republican nominee will be a virtual lock to win the general election.

CA-16:  1, 2, 3, & 4:  The battle to claim the second general election position in California’s open 16th Congressional District continues to drag on and now the election officials are determining if provisional and late arriving ballots should be added to the aggregate count.  An estimated 400+ ballots are in this category.

The current standing finds San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) now leading Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) by a mere four votes, 30, 222 to 30, 218.  This small number is an increase for Simitian from his previous one vote edge.  Previously, Mr. Low held two and three vote leads from a pair of released counts.

Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) has already clinched the first general election finalist position.  The Secretary of State has until April 12th to certify all March 5th primary elections and it is likely determining the second place finisher here will consume the entire time allotment.  Whoever is declared the loser once all ballots are tabulated will obviously call for a recount.  Should the race for second place end in a tie, both contenders would advance into the general election against Mr. Liccardo.  Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring. 

CO-5:  State Chairman Advances to GOP Primary:  Local Republican delegates in Colorado’s open 5th District met over the weekend in their nominating convention.  With Rep. Douglas Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) retiring, the seat becomes open for the first time in 18 years.  Counting his time in the state legislature, Mr. Lamborn will leave elective office at the beginning of next year after serving 30 consecutive years.

The delegates, with a 70.4% vote, propelled Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams into the general election.  A candidate must receive at least 30% of the vote to automatically advance.  Falling below the lower threshold requires a candidate to access the ballot by submitting 1,500 valid petition signatures.  Therefore, the only other announced GOP candidate for the seat, radio talk show host and former two time congressional candidate Jeff Crank, must circulate petitions in order to compete in the June 25th Republican primary.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-5 as R+18.  Then-President Donald Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a 53.2 – 43.1% majority vote.  Therefore, the eventual Republican nominee will become a definitive favorite for the general election.  With the candidate filing deadline fast approaching on April 1st, seven Democrats are announced contenders.

NY-1:  Santos Leaves GOP:  After declaring earlier this month that he would challenge freshman Republican Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) in the GOP primary, on Friday the expelled Congressman announced he would leave the Republican Party and campaign for the 1st District congressional seat as an Independent.

In a written statement, Mr. Santos said, “the Republican Party continues to lie and swindle its voter base.  I, in good conscience, cannot affiliate myself with a party that stands for nothing and falls for everything.”  It is unlikely that Mr. Santos will be a factor in the general election for the Independence Party, or any other ballot line.  Any votes he does attract, however, would likely come from Mr. LaLolta’s base, thus allowing the eventual Democratic nominee, either 2020 congressional nominee Nancy Goroff or former CNN news anchor John Avlon, to potentially gain support from these disaffected Republicans.

WI-8:  Rep. Gallagher to Resign in April:  In February, four-term US Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) announced that he would not seek a fifth term this year.  On Friday, Mr. Gallagher reiterated his plan to leave Congress, and will do so earlier than expected.  The Congressman indicated he will resign from the House on April 19th.
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Leaving at that point in April does not allow the state to replace him with an early special election to fill the balance of the term instead of waiting until the November election.  Therefore, Republicans will be another seat down until the regular general.  Mr. Gallagher becomes the sixth House member to resign during this session of Congress in addition to Rep. George Santos (R-NY), who was expelled from the body.

Nevada:  New Margin of Error Poll:  Prolific pollster Emerson College also tested the Nevada electorate and finds the Senate race already becoming a dead heat.  The survey results (3/12-15; 1,000 NV likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) see Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) by a slight 41-39% split, well within the polling margin of error.  In the presidential race, former President Trump slips past President Biden 44-41%, a pattern that has been evident for weeks in the Silver State. 

Possibly the most encouraging news for Republicans, which helps explain the GOP presidential performance in the poll, is the fact that Hispanics, traditionally heavily Democratic voters, would break for Biden in only a 44-39% clip.  Hispanics account for just over 30% of the Nevada population according to US Census figures.  Therefore, this group could become a deciding factor in how the state eventually votes.

New Jersey:  Menendez May Not Be Done:  While indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) has already announced he will not seek re-election as a Democrat this year, the door is apparently open for him to file as an Independent.  He would have until June 4th to file 1,000 valid New Jersey voter petition signatures in order to obtain a ballot position. 

Though his chances of winning the 2024 general election as an Independent are virtually nil, maintaining candidate status would allow him to use his still substantial campaign funds to pay his legal expenses.  At the end of 2023, Sen. Menendez reports having just under $6.1 million cash-on-hand in his campaign account.

Wisconsin:  Surprising Poll Result:  Perhaps the most surprising recent poll comes from the Badger State of Wisconsin where Emerson College already sees the Senate race in much closer terms than most would have surmised. With Republicans only recently witnessing businessman Eric Hovde come to the forefront to declare his candidacy, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) had, for most of the election cycle, been forecast as close to being a sure winner. 

The new Emerson poll (3/14-18; 1,000 WI likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Baldwin as holding only a 45-42% margin, this while ex-President Trump posts a consistent three point lead over President Biden whether on a direct head-to-head question or when most of the projected independent and minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire.

At this point, the Wisconsin Senate race has been regarded as a second tier challenge opportunity for the GOP.  If poll results like this become consistent over the course of time, the race could move into the top tier and attract greater resources.  The Wisconsin electorate has been known for routinely producing close election outcomes.

New Hampshire:  Democrat Releases Poll:  Democratic Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington released the results of her GBAO Strategies research study (released 3/20; 2/22-26; 600 NH likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that finds her trailing former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig 37-25% in the statewide Democratic primary.  When typical push questions are asked, Warmington moves ahead, thus suggesting that this race has the potential of becoming close. 
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The New Hampshire state primary is not until September 10th, so much time remains for the contest to gel.  Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not seeking a fifth term, so the New Hampshire Governor’s contest will be highly competitive in the general election.