Nevada: New Margin of Error Poll: Prolific pollster Emerson College also tested the Nevada electorate and finds the Senate race already becoming a dead heat. The survey results (3/12-15; 1,000 NV likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) see Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) by a slight 41-39% split, well within the polling margin of error. In the presidential race, former President Trump slips past President Biden 44-41%, a pattern that has been evident for weeks in the Silver State.
Possibly the most encouraging news for Republicans, which helps explain the GOP presidential performance in the poll, is the fact that Hispanics, traditionally heavily Democratic voters, would break for Biden in only a 44-39% clip. Hispanics account for just over 30% of the Nevada population according to US Census figures. Therefore, this group could become a deciding factor in how the state eventually votes. New Jersey: Menendez May Not Be Done: While indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) has already announced he will not seek re-election as a Democrat this year, the door is apparently open for him to file as an Independent. He would have until June 4th to file 1,000 valid New Jersey voter petition signatures in order to obtain a ballot position. Though his chances of winning the 2024 general election as an Independent are virtually nil, maintaining candidate status would allow him to use his still substantial campaign funds to pay his legal expenses. At the end of 2023, Sen. Menendez reports having just under $6.1 million cash-on-hand in his campaign account. Wisconsin: Surprising Poll Result: Perhaps the most surprising recent poll comes from the Badger State of Wisconsin where Emerson College already sees the Senate race in much closer terms than most would have surmised. With Republicans only recently witnessing businessman Eric Hovde come to the forefront to declare his candidacy, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) had, for most of the election cycle, been forecast as close to being a sure winner. The new Emerson poll (3/14-18; 1,000 WI likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Baldwin as holding only a 45-42% margin, this while ex-President Trump posts a consistent three point lead over President Biden whether on a direct head-to-head question or when most of the projected independent and minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire. At this point, the Wisconsin Senate race has been regarded as a second tier challenge opportunity for the GOP. If poll results like this become consistent over the course of time, the race could move into the top tier and attract greater resources. The Wisconsin electorate has been known for routinely producing close election outcomes. Comments are closed.
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