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Marquette Law School released its quarterly survey of the Wisconsin electorate (4/19-24; 805 WI registered voters; 363 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and sees a tightening Democratic US Senate primary. The ballot test gave Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes only a 19-16% lead over Milwaukee Bucks professional basketball club executive Alex Lasry. The result represents a net seven point swing in Mr. Lasry’s favor since the last Marquette survey in February. Mr. Lasry has been advertising heavily in media buys. This race has time to gel. The Wisconsin primary is not until August 9th. The winner faces Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in November.
The Differentiators Data research organization, polling for GOPAC (4/25-26; 400 NC-11 likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text), finds a majority of GOP sampled voters saying they would not vote to re-nominate Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-Hendersonville), but his hard core support group appears large enough to allow him to win a plurality election.
When asked if they would support Rep. Cawthorn in the North Carolina primary, 61% said they would choose another candidate. His coalition of 39% that would vote to re-nominate him is large enough to win the primary in a state that has a runoff law, but with only a 30% threshold. Rep. Cawthorn having seven opponents is clearly playing to his benefit. As mentioned above in the Wisconsin Senate section, Marquette Law School released a new Wisconsin survey (4/19-24; 805 WI registered voters; 375 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) and former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch continues to lead the party nomination race. The numbers haven’t changed much since February, though this poll was taken before construction company executive and 2004 US Senate nominee Tim Michels entered the race. The ballot test finds Ms. Kleefisch holding a 32-10% lead over businessman and frequent candidate Kevin Nicholson. The winner will face Gov. Tony Evers (D) in the general election in what will be a highly competitive race.
The latest Morning Consult Governor approval ratings are out, and Republican Governors led by Charlie Baker (R-MA), Phil Scott (R-VT), Larry Hogan (R-MD), and Jim Justice (R-WV) head a group of eleven GOP state chief executives who are the top rated in the nation. Of the eleven, six are on the ballot for re-election this year including Gov. Scott, who has still not indicated that he will run for a fourth two-year term. Chris Sununu (R-NH), Kay Ivey (R-AL), Mark Gordon (R-WY), Doug Burgum (R-ND), and Mike DeWine (R-OH) are the other top rated Governors seeking re-election.
On the other end of the spectrum, the only two who have negative ratings above 50%, Govs. Kate Brown (D-OR) and David Ige (D-HI), are both retiring. The New York Court of Appeals, the highest judicial body in the state, upheld the two lower court decisions to invalidate the Democrats’ 22D-4R congressional map. The high court ruled that the legislature did not have the power to usurp the created redistricting commission even though the members could not complete their task by the assigned date. The CoA also ruled that the map is a partisan gerrymander. The court remanded the map back to the lower court and instructed a special master be hired to draw the new congressional and state Senate maps. The court also recommended the June 28th state primary be moved to a time in August.
Confident that freshman Rep. Kai Kahele (D-Hilo) will soon declare his intention to run for Governor, former state Senator Jill Tokuda (D) yesterday formally exited the Lt. Governor’s race and announced that she will enter the 1st Congressional District contest.
Though Rep. Kahele is still technically a congressional candidate, Ms. Tokuda follows the lead of state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kailua), state Rep. Angus McKelvey (D-Lahaina), and Honolulu City Council chairman Tommy Waters (D) who have all entered what they believe will be an open congressional race. The Hawaii candidate filing deadline is June 7th for the August 13th statewide primary, so Rep. Kahele will soon have to make known his 2022 political plans. After the Alaska Republican Party, which has also endorsed businessman Nick Begich, III over former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin in the US House special election, had already officially endorsed the party’s incumbent Governor, Mike Dunleavy (R), the political entity has now expanded its official support list. In addition to the Governor, the Alaska GOP voted to also endorse Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce, who is the Governor’s Republican primary challenger.
Fairfield, Connecticut’s Sacred Heart University released a new poll of the Governor’s campaign, which is expected to become competitive once we enter the post-primary period. The survey (3/24-4/11; 1,000 CT residents; online) finds Gov. Ned Lamont (D) opening with a substantial lead over businessman and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Bob Stefanowski (R). The ballot test finds the Governor holding a 48-30% advantage.
The poll, however, has a questionable methodology. The sampling period of 18 days is very long, and the respondent universe did not segment for likely or even registered voters. Therefore, the result likely places Gov. Lamont in a better position than he might be before a better segmented poll. State Sen. Brett Lindstrom (R-Omaha) released a new internal poll of the upcoming May 10th Republican primary that features a very tight contest among himself, businessman Charles Herbster, and former University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen. The Data Targeting/Neilan Strategy Group poll (4/19-20; 858 NE likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) finds Sen. Lindstrom claiming a small lead at 28-26-24% edge over Mr. Herbster and Pillen who both have significant support.
The results are a marked improvement for Mr. Herbster, who former President Trump endorses, after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment. A previous poll showed him losing support. The eventual Republican nominee becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed term-limited Gov. Pete Ricketts (R). Fox News released the results of their new Ohio poll (4/20-24; 906 OH likely Republican primary voters; live interview) that finds Gov. Mike DeWine leading his Republican primary opponents, former US Rep. Jim Renacci and farmer Joe Blystone by a 43-24-19% margin. This represents a downward trend for the Governor of a net 11 points from March’s Fox Poll. Combined, the opponents equal Mr. DeWine’s support, but with the anti-incumbent vote split, it is likely that the Governor wins a plurality nomination race next Tuesday.
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