IL-14: Rep. Underwood Wins
After trailing for most of the counting period, freshman Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) has won re-election. Yesterday, it was announced that her victory margin over state Sen. Jim Oberweis (R) is unofficially 4,288 votes.
Since seven House races were called yesterday, we now see 16 congressional contests called, eight of which are in New York and three in California.
Below is the list of the outstanding races and their current status:
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R)
Status: 59.2%; Reporting 69%
R+ 43,761 votes
CA-21: David Valadao (R)
Status: 51.4% ; Reporting 71%
R+ 4,041 votes
CA-25: Rep. Mike Garcia (R)
Status: 50.0%; Reporting 86%
R+ 159 votes
CA-39: Young Kim (R)
Status: 50.6%; Reporting 97%
R+ 4,168 votes
IA-2: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Status: 50.0%; Reporting 100%
R+ 40 votes
IL-14: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
Status: 50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 3,524 votes
LA-5: Luke Letlow (R)
Status: 33.1%; Reporting 100%
Runoff - Dec 5
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R)
Status: 61.3%; Reporting 100%
R+ 65,120 votes
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R)
Status: 57.8%; Reporting 100%
R+ 44,898 votes
NY-3: George Santos (R)
Status: 50.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 4,171 votes
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R)
Status: 57.9%; Reporting 95%
R+ 37,158 votes
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Status: 51.0%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,896 votes
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D)
Status: 50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,893 votes
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R)
Status: 54.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 28,394 votes
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R)
Status: 58.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 55,102 votes
UT-4: Burgess Owens (R)
Status: 47.6%; Reporting 95%
R+ 1,780 votes
13 of 16 R Leads
The Outstanding Races
Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who scored a 51-42% victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). Ms. Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected with a very close win (49.6 – 48.5%) over GOP challenger John James.
The two calls mean that the high number for the Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51. The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.
In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100% of the vote being received. Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats in 15. This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.
Below is a list of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading.
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - Status: 62.3%; Reporting: 50%
Georgia-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) - must reach 50%; Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 97%
Georgia-B: Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - Status: 32.5%; Reporting: 96%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - Status: 26.2%; Reporting: Runoff
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Winner; Status: 51.1%
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) - Winner; Status: 49.6%
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - Status: 48.7%; Reporting: 93%
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) - Status: 63.3%; Reporting: 53%
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) - Status: 52.1%; Reporting: 92%
AZ-6: Hiral Tipirneni (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 76%
CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) - Status: 52.9%; Reporting: 87%
CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) - Status: 53.3%; Reporting: 37%
CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Status: 51.4%; Reporting: 42%
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 77%
CA-39: Young Kim (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 89%
CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 93%
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) - Status: 52.2%; Reporting: 51%
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Status: 51.2%; Reporting: 100%
IA-2: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 100%
IL-14: Jim Oberweis (R) - Status: 50.1%; Reporting: 100%
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Status: 51.8%; Reporting: 100%
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 99%
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) - Status: 53.1%; Reporting: 99%
MI-5: Dan Kildee (D) - Status: 54.3%; Reporting: 100%
MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 97%
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) - Status: 48.6%; Reporting: 100%
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 100%
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 75%
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 85%
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) - Status: 49.7%; Reporting: 65%
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) - Status: 61.3%; Reporting: 99%
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R) - Status: 58.1%; Reporting: 99%
NY-3: George Santos (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 99%
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) - Status: 52.0%; Reporting: 100%
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) - Status: 57.9%; Reporting: 95%
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Status: 50.8%; Reporting: 100%
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) - Status: 51.3%; Reporting: 98%
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 100%
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) - Status: 58.5%; Reporting: 100%
PA-7: Lisa Scheller (R) - Status: 50.7%; Reporting: 86%
PA-8: Jim Bognet (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 86%
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 89%
PA-17: Sean Parnell (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 94%
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R) - Status: 48.8%; Reporting: 99%
UT-4: Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 69%
VA-7: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) - Status: 50.6%; Reporting: 100%
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Status: 54.7%; Reporting: 80%
IL-17: Challenging the Chair
There has been some talk in Republican circles about a potential rising star in congressional candidate Esther Joy King. The trouble is she’s running against the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, western Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Moline). Obviously, if Rep. Bustos found herself in a competitive race from a district that did barely back President Trump in 2016 (47.4 – 46.7%), she would have any assistance at her beck and call.
A new poll suggests that Rep. Bustos will be calling in resources to help her, as the Tarrance Group, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (10/10-12; 418 IL-17 likely voters; live interview), sees the margin between the two candidates to be 49-44% with the Congresswoman leading. While it is unlikely to see Ms. King upset Rep. Bustos this year, her political career may be just beginning, nonetheless.
IL-13: Rep. Davis Drops Behind
A new Tulchin Research survey for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (10/1-6; 400 IL-13 likely voters; live interview) shows Democratic challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan pulling ahead of Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) in a re-match of their 2018 campaign that was decided by just 2,058 votes of 270,981 ballots cast. The Tulchin data gives Ms. Londrigan a 47-43% lead over Congressman Davis, which bumps to 48-43% when those leaning her way are added.
IL-13: Close Again
In 2018, Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) was re-elected with just a 50.4 – 49.6% margin, a spread of just 2,058 votes of almost 271,000 ballots cast. The GBAO polling organization just released the second public survey of this district (9/17-20; 600 IL-13 likely voters) for the 2020 campaign and see a virtual rerun campaign between Mr. Davis and businesswoman and 2018 congressional nominee Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D). The GBAO findings project a 48-47% Davis slight lead, almost identical to how their last campaign ended.
The first publicly released poll came at the end of July and into early August from RMG Research (7/27-8/7; 500 IL-13 registered voters) and saw a potentially conflicting 43-41% edge for Ms. Londrigan.
IL-3: Shock Poll
In March, Democratic challenger Marie Newman denied Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) re-nomination in what would be the first of eight incumbent defeats in primary elections. It was presumed Ms. Newman would cruise in the general election in what is typically a safe Democratic congressional district, but a new poll suggests otherwise.
The Ogden & Fry research firm conducted a flash poll on September 7th (759 IL-3 likely voters based upon a 2020 projection model) and found a surprising result. The respondents favored Ms. Newman with only a 46-44% margin over Republican Mike Fricilone, a Will County Board member. Even if this poll is accurate, the race won’t turn into a competitive contest. Mr. Fricilone had only raised $49,000 through the last published financial disclosure report (June 30th), and is unlikely to have the resources to compete down the stretch.
Illinois: General Election Pairings
With the Illinois primary now in the books, it is clear that rancher Mary Miller (R) will succeed retiring Rep. John Shimkus (R-Collinsville) in the sprawling 15th District. Ms. Miller, in spending only about $300,000, rode to a 57.5% victory against three other Republican candidates. She will now face Mattoon School Board member Erika Weaver in a district that will overwhelmingly favor the GOP (Trump ’16: 71%).
Elsewhere, former state Representative and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Jeanne Ives (R) will challenge freshman Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) and frequent candidate Jim Oberweis, now a state Senator, won the crowded field Republican nomination to oppose freshman Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) in the general election. Both Democratic incumbents are favored to win re-election.
We will also see a strong re-match as Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan was an easy winner in her primary race. She will again oppose Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) in a downstate 13th District campaign that was decided by less than a full percentage point in 2018.
Veteran eight-term Illinois Congressman Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) failed in his bid for re-nomination yesterday, as the 3rd District Democratic electorate chose a candidate to his left, media consultant Marie Newman. The challenger was victorious 47-45% over incumbent Lipinski, a margin of 2,365 votes with almost all precincts reporting. In 2018, Newman fell three points short of victory but was able to turn the tide in this election. She will be a lock to win the general election in November.
Rep. Lipinski is the first incumbent to lose re-nomination so far this year. Ms. Newman outspent the incumbent approximately $2 million to $1.5 million from their respective campaign accounts. It appears another $3 million was spent from outside organizations, but the support/oppose ratio is unclear at this writing.
Primary Day: Biden Scores Big
Voters in three states cast their ballots for the Democratic presidential nomination yesterday, and former Vice President Joe Biden easily won in Florida (62-23%) and Illinois (59-26%), while his victory percentage dipped to 44-31% in Arizona. On the delegate count, largely because of his huge landslide in Florida, Mr. Biden captured approximately 66% of the available delegates last night, putting him on a clear course to win the party nomination on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention in July. Ohio, which was also supposed to vote yesterday, postponed its primary because of COVID-19 precautions. It will likely now be scheduled for June 2nd.
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