BIPAC's The Rundown Blog
  • The Rundown Blog
  • Staff
  • Join BIPAC
  • Contact
  • The Rundown Blog
  • Staff
  • Join BIPAC
  • Contact



"The Rundown" Blog

 


Contact BIPAC to Learn More About our Membership Benefits
 

CA-25:  Real Clear Politics Declares

11/30/2020

 
​According to the Real Clear Politics electoral count, Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) has defeated state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall).  With 338,523 votes being tabulated, Mr. Garcia’s lead stands at 405 votes. 
 
The number of remaining votes, and from where they are coming, appears not plentiful enough to overturn Rep. Garcia’s slight edge.  Our rudimentary estimate suggests he will win the final vote count by approximately 375 votes.  If this proves true, the Garcia seat would become the 211th for the GOP.

IA-2:  Winner by Six

11/30/2020

 
​The IA-2 race between state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa) and former state Senator and 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart (D-Clinton County) appears headed to certification today.  Ms. Miller-Meeks’ 47 vote lead at the end of official counting shrunk to just six votes from the recount, but she is expected to be certified as the race winner in just a few hours. 
 
We can expect Ms. Hart to continue to file legal challenges, hoping to obtain orders to count votes that have been previously disqualified.  With such a small margin, it is conceivable that the House won’t seat Ms. Miller-Meeks even though she will be an officially certified winning candidate.  Such action would not be without precedent. 
 
In the end, it is possible that we could even see a new election being called but much will happen before we reach such a conclusion.  Should the Miller-Meeks’ certification hold, this would become the GOP’s 212th seat, meaning they would only be six conversion districts away from re-claiming the majority in 2022.

NY-22:  Race Flips

11/30/2020

 
​The Upstate NY-22 race has been the slowest to reach culmination and while the final outcome is still undetermined, we now see a lead change.  At one point in the early counting, former US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) held a lead of greater than 50,000 votes over freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica), yet the race was never called. 
 
Prior to the holiday break, Ms. Tenney’s early overall advantage had dropped to just 300 votes, 155,730 to 155,330.  When counting resumed, she found herself on the outside looking in, though tabulations are still not complete.  At this point, with 317,489 votes counted, it is Rep. Brindisi with the slightest of leads, just 13 votes with 99% reporting. 
 
This is likely another race that will likely drag on through legal challenges and motions because the result will probably result in a virtual tie.  The resolution of this contest and that in IA-2 will be interesting to observe.  Both could take several weeks, and possibly months, to unravel as we have seen in the past when the outcomes are as close as these.

CA-25:  Garcia Still Holding

11/25/2020

 
​The laborious post-election counting process continues in California’s lone contested House race, the 25th District contest between Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) and state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall).  For the past couple of days with no update counting totals being reported, Mr. Garcia’s lead stood at exactly 400 votes of 338,345 cast ballots. 
 
With a new vote batch released last night, the Congressman’s lead has increased by five votes with approximately 2,700 votes awaiting signature verification and tabulation.  If these trends continue, Rep. Garcia is estimated to win re-election by approximately 375 votes.

NY-22:  Undetermined Race Down to 300 Votes

11/25/2020

 
​The Upstate NY-22 race has been the slowest to reach culmination and it is still undetermined.  At one point in the early counting, former US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) held a lead of greater than 50,000 votes over Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica), yet the race was never called. 
 
The lead continued to dwindle to just over 25,000, then to 11,000, before dropping to just over 9,000.  Now, the race, with over 315,000 total votes cast and recorded, already an increase of 6.6% when compared with 2016, sees the margin winnowing down to only a 300-vote spread with 99% counted.

Voter Turnout:  Record High Keeps Growing

11/25/2020

 
​Those who predicted that 2020 presidential election turnout would exceed 155 million people have now been proven correct.  According to The Green Papers statistical website, the entire voting universe in the 2020 presidential election, while still growing as states finish their canvassing process, has reached 155,043,792 voters. 
 
This figure represents an increase of more than 18.25 million people since the previous presidential election in 2016.  The totals represent at least a 13.3% uptick in voter participation between the two presidential years at a time the national population grew only 1.2% during the same time span.

Election Record:  Two Candidates Surpass 70 Million Votes

11/25/2020

 
​There are now only two presidential candidates in United States electoral history who have received more than 70 million votes, and they are Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both in 2020.  Mr. Biden is the only person ever to receive more than 80 million votes and, despite losing the popular vote, President Trump increased his vote total by just under 11 million when compared to his aggregate 2016 number.

Candidate Recruitment:  GOP Targets

11/24/2020

 
​Staring at another difficult US Senate map in 2022 where Republicans are forced to protect 20 Senate seats as opposed to the Democrats’ 13, new National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Rick Scott (R-FL) looks to have his sights set on three GOP Governors, attempting to convince them to challenge incumbent Democratic Senators. 
 
The reported Republican Senate candidate wish list includes Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (term-limited in 2022; would potentially oppose Sen-Elect Mark Kelly who must run for the full six-year term).  The others are Govs. Larry Hogan (against Sen. Chris Van Hollen) and Chris Sununu (versus Sen. Maggie Hassan).  There is no guarantee that any of the Governors will run for the Senate, but they represent the most formidable potential challenger to the Democratic incumbent in each situation.

IA-2:  Miller-Meeks' Lead Shrinks

11/24/2020

 
​The IA-2 open seat congressional election was certified for Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks as a 47-vote victory of 393,677 cast ballots.  The Secretary of State’s office reports that the districtwide recount – 15 of the 24 counties are now complete – have reduced the Miller-Meeks edge over former state Senator Rita Hart (D) to just 36 votes.  Further reports also suggest that Scott County, which has not yet reported, has found an additional net 30 votes in favor of Hart meaning the lead could be as little as six votes.

North Carolina:  Rep. Walker to Soon Announce for Senate

11/24/2020

 
​Rep. Mark Walker (R-Greensboro), who did not seek re-election to the House because the state Supreme Court’s re-drawing of the North Carolina congressional map left him without a district, may formally announce his US Senate campaign as early as December 1st according to reports.  Sen. Richard Burr (R) has stated publicly on several occasions that he will not seek re-election to a fourth term in 2022.
<<Previous

    The Rundown Blog

    Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017

    Categories

    All
    116th Congress
    Ads
    Alabama
    Alaska
    All
    Arizona
    Arkansas
    California
    Canada
    Census
    Cities
    Colorado
    Connecticut
    Delaware
    District Of Columbia
    Election Day
    Financial Reports
    Florida
    Georgia
    Governor
    Hawaii
    House Of Representatives
    Idaho
    Illinois
    Indiana
    Iowa
    Kansas
    Kentucky
    Louisiana
    Maine
    Maryland
    Massachusetts
    Michigan
    Minnesota
    Mississippi
    Missouri
    Montana
    Nebraska
    Nevada
    New Hampshire
    New-hampshire
    New Jersey
    New Mexico
    New York
    North Carolina
    North Dakota
    Ohio
    Oklahoma
    Oregon
    Pennsylvania
    Politics
    President
    Puerto Rico
    Redistricting
    Rhode Island
    Secretary Of State
    South Carolina
    South Dakota
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Utah
    Vermont
    Virginia
    Voting
    Washington
    West Virginia
    Wisconsin
    Wyoming

    RSS Feed

    Connect with BIPAC

Submit

BIPAC

1707 L St NW, Suite 550
Washington, DC 20036 

​P (202) 776-7463
F (202) 833-2338
E info@bipac.org
Affiliates
 BIPAC
EmployeesVote.com
Friends of Adam Smith Foundation
Momentum Advocacy
© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved