Earlier this week, we reported upon an American Research Group poll that found New Hampshire Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D) taking a commanding lead over former police chief Eddie Edwards (R). The ARG data (9/21-26; 400 NH-1 registered voters) found Mr. Pappas to be ahead 55-33%.
Yesterday, OnMessage released their polling numbers for the eastern Granite State district. According to them (9/25-27; 400 NH-1 likely voters), it is Edwards who leads the race, and by a 42-40% count. The diversity obviously shows that at least one of the pollsters is way off. The 1st District is one of the most defined swing districts in the country. The electorate here has defeated the incumbent five of the last six election years, more than any CD in the country. More data will have to be examined here before a clear pattern can be predicted.
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