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Public Policy Polling surveyed the open New York City Democratic Mayoral primary and sees two candidates already beginning to break away from the pack of contenders now reaching about a dozen in number.
According to PPP (12/16-17; 775 NYC likely 2021 Democratic primary voters; interactive response system), surveying for the Education Reform Now Advocacy New York organization, former Presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who is expected to announce his Mayoral candidacy early next year, would lead the group with 17% preference followed closely by Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams who has 16% support. All other contenders were below the 8% threshold. Incumbent Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The judge hearing the post-election dispute between US House candidates Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica), the freshman incumbent, and former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), says the election will not be decided for several more days after he and attorneys for the parties held a private meeting on Friday. All but two of the eight counties have finalized their counts.
There are, however, over 2,400 challenged ballots that must be researched and a final decision over each of them rendered before the final vote is certified. Currently, Ms. Tenney continues to maintain her 12-vote lead. The judge, Oswego County Supreme Court Justice Scott DelConte, says he hopes to have a final certification before the House convenes on January 3rd. Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island), who lost his congressional seat to state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (R) in November, has filed a campaign committee for the 2021 New York City Mayor’s race. Mr. Rose, however, stopped short of officially announcing his candidacy.
Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang was quoted as saying that he won’t make a decision about the Mayor’s race until after the Georgia Senate runoff elections are completed since he is working to help the Democratic candidates. Reports suggest, however, that he is making moves to establish a campaign and will join the burgeoning field of 11 candidates, including Rep. Rose, who are vying to replace term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio. New York Supreme Court Justice Scott DelConte, who now has jurisdiction over the unresolved NY-22 congressional election, issued a ruling yesterday. This is the last uncertified or conceded House election in the country, and it appears it will be at least another couple of weeks before a winner is declared. The current count shows former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) leading freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) by a scant 12 votes from more than 317,000 ballots cast.
The canvass process has discovered as many as 1,400 – 1,700 uncanvassed and possibly uncounted ballots, which could obviously change the outcome. Justice DelConte cited seven of the eight counties that comprise the 22nd District for not following New York election law regarding the counting of the early, mail and affidavit ballots. Therefore, he has ordered a re-canvassing of the disputed ballots. He ordered the counties to report back to him on December 18th. Therefore, it is possible we will not see a winner by the time the new Congress takes office on January 3, 2021. The 2021 open New York City Mayor’s race is going to attract a great deal of political attention, and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang is now reportedly testing the waters for his own candidacy.
A new Slingshot Strategies survey (11/30-12/6; 1,000 likely 2021 NYC voters) finds Mr. Yang actually leading the field with 20% support. Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is second with 14%, while City Comptroller Scott Stringer, often characterized as one of the leading candidates, falls back to just 11% support. Former NYC Council President Christine Quinn records 7% and defeated Congressman Max Rose (D-Staten Island) posts 6% preference. Mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to seek a third term. Securing the Democratic nomination is typically equivalent to winning the general election. In a tight intra-party conference battle against California Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima/Los Angeles) for Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair, New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring/Peekskill) emerged victorious and will replace Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL) who did not seek a second term in the position in the wake of significant 2020 election losses. Rep. Maloney’s task is now to keep and expand a Democratic majority that could be as small as five seats in the face of political history that finds the party controlling the White House almost always losing House seats in a new President’s first midterm election.
Additional votes coming from one of the 22nd District counties has now put former US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) ahead of Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) by a dozen-vote margin. Before, it was Congressman Brindisi who led by 12 or 13 votes, depending upon the cited news source. Reports suggest there are 809 disputed ballots, while over 1,600 have been rejected as both campaigns have agreed. It appears that this contest will require considerably more time to decide and the winner is still very much undetermined.
The Upstate NY-22 race has been the slowest to reach culmination and while the final outcome is still undetermined, we now see a lead change. At one point in the early counting, former US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) held a lead of greater than 50,000 votes over freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica), yet the race was never called.
Prior to the holiday break, Ms. Tenney’s early overall advantage had dropped to just 300 votes, 155,730 to 155,330. When counting resumed, she found herself on the outside looking in, though tabulations are still not complete. At this point, with 317,489 votes counted, it is Rep. Brindisi with the slightest of leads, just 13 votes with 99% reporting. This is likely another race that will likely drag on through legal challenges and motions because the result will probably result in a virtual tie. The resolution of this contest and that in IA-2 will be interesting to observe. Both could take several weeks, and possibly months, to unravel as we have seen in the past when the outcomes are as close as these. The Upstate NY-22 race has been the slowest to reach culmination and it is still undetermined. At one point in the early counting, former US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) held a lead of greater than 50,000 votes over Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica), yet the race was never called.
The lead continued to dwindle to just over 25,000, then to 11,000, before dropping to just over 9,000. Now, the race, with over 315,000 total votes cast and recorded, already an increase of 6.6% when compared with 2016, sees the margin winnowing down to only a 300-vote spread with 99% counted. Just days after New York Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island) conceded re-election defeat to state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (R), it appears he is already testing the waters for another political run. Reports are surfacing that Rep. Rose may be looking to enter the open New York City Mayor’s race next year. Incumbent Bill de Blasio (D), who was a focal point of negative attacks during the congressional campaign, is ineligible to seek a third term. Therefore, interest is growing among Democrats looking to run for the position.
Announcing his candidacy yesterday was Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. Other Democrats already in the race is former US Housing & Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and NYC Councilman Carlos Menchaca. |
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