​The long-awaited Pennsylvania primary is on tap for tomorrow, and the Republican side is ending with a flurry of outside organizations running media attack ads.  Supporters of former hedge fund CEO David McCormick and Dr. Mehmet Oz have now turned their attention toward trying to blunt Army veteran and 2020 congressional candidate Kathy Barnette who has driven herself into the top tier and beginning to peak at the optimum time.  Supporting Ms. Barnette is the Club for Growth organization, spending $2 million in a media blitz around the state to bolster her improving chances of winning the primary.  Polling shows a very close race with each of the three in reasonable position to win.
 
The Democratic side is more clear cut.  Lt Gov. John Fetterman has a large polling lead over US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) and looks to be the clear favorite to claim his party’s nomination early tomorrow night.  

​Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell (D) released the results of his internal poll that was conducted back in April (4/18-21; 350 FL-27 likely general election voters).  The results show him within two points of freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami), 43-41%.  If the bounced Florida redistricting map is restored in the upper level courts, as many believe will happen, the new 27th plays three points better for Rep. Salazar, though it would still be rated as tipping toward the Democrats by one percentage point. 
 
In the current Democratic version of FL-27, Ms. Salazar defeated then-Democratic incumbent Donna Shalala (D-Miami), 51-49%, in the 2020 election.

​Before the early April filing deadline, the Tennessee Republican Party adopted new candidate qualification rules that included past voting history requirements.  The new standard requires that all potential GOP office seekers must have voted in the last three statewide elections.  Thus, a trio of filed candidates in the new 5th Congressional District were disqualified because they recently moved into the state.  The three are former State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus, who former President Donald Trump was supporting, business owner Baxter Lee, and video producer Robby Starbuck. 
 
The latter man sued in federal court asking that the judge strike down the Tennessee party’s requirement, arguing that the party leaders established a requirement that is “inconsistent with federal and state law.”  Late last week, Judge Waverly Crenshaw rejected the claim saying that "Starbuck's efforts were thwarted not because of any clear violation of federal law, but because (for whatever reason) the (Tennessee Republican Party) decided not to follow its own rules.”  Ms. Ortagus and Mr. Lee did not challenge the new rule.  Mr. Starbuck says he may take the matter to state court.  The Tennessee primary is August 4th.

​Missouri is one of just two states that has not yet completed the congressional redistricting process, though it appears the legislature and Governor may finally have an agreement.  Had the legislature not acted this weekend before the session ended Sine Die, the federal courts would have assumed the re-mapping process. 
 
The plan now before Gov.  Mike Parson (R) would likely preserve the state’s current 6R-2D ratio.  The argument among Republicans was over increasing the draw to 7R-1D, thus collapsing the Kansas City Democratic district of Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver.  Under the map now likely to be adopted, Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin), who has fought to win consecutive close finishes against strong Democratic opponents, sees her new 2nd CD become more Republican because politically favorable rural territory is added west of St. Louis County.

​With US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) now substantially ahead in twelve consecutive Republican primary polls from the end of March to the present, it appears clear he is going to be nominated on Tuesday.  Therefore, attention is already being paid to the formulating general election.  Two polls featuring Rep. Budd and consensus Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley, the former state Supreme Court Chief Justice, have just been released. 
 
The first, from the Beasley campaign that the Global Strategy Group conducted (4/28-5/4; 800 NC likely general election voters) finds the poll sponsor and Rep. Budd tied at 45%.  Emerson College also released their survey (5/7-9; 1,000 NC registered voters) that gives Mr. Budd a 48-41% advantage.  We can expect this to be one of the top Senate races in the country come November, and will feature a plethora of public polls.

​The GQR survey research firm ran a poll of the open 1st District Democratic primary (5/6-8; 407 NC-1 likely Democratic primary voters) and find state Sen. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) leading former state Senator and 2020 US Senate candidate Erica Smith, 44-31%, as the candidates make their final pitch before Tuesday’s primary election.
 
The Republican oriented Congressional Leadership Fund, loosely associated with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), is actively running ads against GOP candidate Sandy Smith, the 2020 CD-1 nominee who held incumbent Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson) to a 54-46% re-election victory. 
 
The CLF does not indicate support for another candidate, but former Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson appears to be Ms. Smith’s strongest competitor.  The move is curious in that the ads lay out personal negatives against Ms. Smith that could be used against her in the general election should she win the GOP nomination.  The new 1st, that the state Supreme Court drafted, is rated D+5 thus suggesting a competitive general election. 

​Survey USA polling for KOB-TV in Albuquerque (4/29-5/7; 1,389 NM likely general election voters; interactive voice response system and online) tested the upcoming Governor’s race and finds 2020 US Senate Republican nominee and former television weatherman Mark Ronchetti pulling to within the margin of polling error against Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D). 
 
The ballot test breaks 47-43% in favor of the incumbent.  More troubling for Gov. Lujan Grisham, however, is her results against the entire Republican field.  Paired individually with each of five candidates, Gov. Lujan Grisham, though leading in every case, fails to reach 50% against any of her GOP opponents.  The cumulative results portend a highly competitive November race.

​Just days before Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary, state Senate President Jake Corman has dropped his Republican gubernatorial bid and endorsed fellow contender Lou Barletta, the former Congressman and 2020 US Senate nominee.  With Mr. Corman never able to increase his support from low single digits, his withdrawal is designed to help Mr. Barletta overcome the polling lead that state Sen. Doug Mastriano (D-Fayetteville) has established. 
 
Pennsylvania Republican leaders are reportedly nervous that Sen. Mastriano, who was a legislative leader in attempting to determine if there was widespread fraud in the state during the 2020 election, would be unable to defeat Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is the consensus Democratic gubernatorial nominee.  It is likely that the Corman-Barletta move will prove too little, too late, however.

​A CWS Research poll (5/4-10; 992 TX likely Republican primary runoff voters; interactive voice response system and text) reports that Attorney General Ken Paxton is substantially ahead of Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the son of former Florida Governor and 2016 presidential candidate Jeb Bush.  The CWS results find AG Paxton holding a whopping 58-31% lead as the candidates move toward the state’s May 24th runoff election date.  In the primary, Mr. Paxton garnered 42.7% of the vote, which is obviously short of the majority vote a candidate needs to win the nomination outright.  In a field of four candidates, Mr. Bush finished second with 22.8%.  

​The Alaska Survey Research  firm, headed by long time local pollster Ivan Moore, released their new special election US House study featuring 48 candidates.  The survey (5/6-9; 605 AK-AL likely special election voters; online) finds former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential Republican nominee Sarah Palin leading the huge field with 19%, followed closely by officially endorsed Republican Party candidate Nick Begich, III at 16%, with Independent and former 2020 Democratic US Senate nominee Al Gross and North Pole City Councilman Santa Claus (the former Thomas O’Connor) capturing the third and fourth qualifying positions with 13 and 6%, respectively.
 
Under the new Alaska election law, the top four finishers from the jungle primary, in this case scheduled for June 11th, will advance to the August 16th special general election.  If no one receives majority support among the finishing four in the succeeding vote, the Ranked Choice Voting System takes effect.  It is here where Ms. Palin may find trouble.  Under this configuration, ASR projects that Mr. Claus would be first eliminated, then Ms Palin in the next round.  A Begich-Gross final round would favor Mr. Begich at 53-47%.
 
Nick Begich, III is the grandson of former US Rep. Nick Begich (D), who died in a plane crash before the 1972 election.  His uncle is former US Sen. Mark Begich (D).  Nick Begich, III, however, is a Republican.  ASR tested four different iterations with four separate fourth place contenders, and in each scenario Mr. Begich ultimately wins the seat.