Ohio: Dolan Closing Fast: State Sen. Matt Dolan’s (R-Chagrin Falls) campaign may be peaking at exactly the right time as we head into tomorrow’s Ohio primary. Two closing polls post Mr. Dolan to a small lead over businessman Bernie Moreno with Secretary of State Frank LaRose falling back.
East Carolina University (3/8-11; 1,298 OH likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) sees Mr. Dolan holding a 33-31-23% edge over Mr. Moreno, who former President Donald Trump and US Senator J.D. Vance (R) support, and Secretary LaRose, respectively. The Main Street Research firm partnering with Florida Atlantic University (3/13-15; 818 OH registered Republican voters; online) finds a similar result at 31-29-19% with the candidates in the same order when undecideds are pushed. Mr. Dolan is ahead 25-24% over Mr. Moreno on first ballot test. The Ohio Republican Senate contest has been close from the outset, and it appears to be ending that way. Whatever the final result tomorrow night, the winner will head into what promises to be a tight and bruising campaign against three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the nation’s most important 2024 Senate races. CA-16: Seesaw Results: Votes continue to be counted in California’s open 16th Congressional District jungle primary and the general election pairing is still yet to be determined. While former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) has secured the first general election ballot position, San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) has re-taken the lead over Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) by just 20 votes. In the previous two released counts, Mr. Low had assumed the lead first by 59 votes and then increasing to a 103 vote span.
The Secretary of State is reporting that over 99% of the votes have been tabulated, but a review of the county outstanding ballot totals suggests that an estimated 600 votes still remain uncounted. Therefore, it is unclear exactly which of these latter two men will advance. We do know, however, that the open seat final will feature two Democrats vying to replace retiring US Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton). OH-6: Rulli Getting Outside Help: A special nomination election and concurrent regular primary will occur tomorrow in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, which is the first step toward replacing resigned US Rep. Bill Johnson (R). The race is largely between state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Delaware). The latter man has been attacking the Senator over what Stoltzfus claims in Rulli’s support for a bathroom bill that he says would have allowed men to use women’s restrooms. The Defending Main Street PAC organization is coming into the race late to help Sen. Rulli with ads hoping to clarify the legislator’s record. Whoever wins tomorrow’s GOP primary will be a heavy favorite in the June 11th special general election. The winner of that election will immediately take the seat to fill the balance of the current term. OH-6 covers a large section of eastern Ohio that borders Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+31. Former President Donald Trump carried this seat with a 64-35% margin in 2020. PA-12: Dem Primary Attack Launched: A competitive Democratic primary is underway in the Pittsburgh area as freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale/Pittsburgh) defends her heavily Democratic district for the first time. Edgewood Borough Councilwoman Bhavini Patel is her principal opponent for the April 24th primary. The Moderate PAC is involving itself in the race, running attack ads against Rep. Lee referring to her as a socialist and one who is out of the Democratic Party’s mainstream. This is becoming one of the hotter primaries on the early primary calendar, and the race deserves attention as the primary draws nearer. Ohio: Conflicting Polls: Yesterday, we reported on an Emerson College poll of the Ohio Senate Republican primary that posted state Senator Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) to a 26-23-16% edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively. Now we see a Survey USA study (3/6-11; 1,241 OH registered voters; 533 likely Republican primary voters; online) that projects Mr. Moreno holding a 22-18-16% lead over Sen. Dolan and Secretary LaRose. The closeness of both polls suggests any of the three still has a chance to win this coming Tuesday.
AK-AL: New Poll Shows Ranked Choice Toss-up Result: A new Data for Progress survey (2/23-3/2; 1,120 AK likely general election voters; web to text) finds a very tight impending at-large congressional race with no clear leader after several hypothetical rounds of Ranked Choice Voting. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) leads the original field of businessman and former congressional candidate Nick Begich III (R), Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), and Libertarian Chris Bye by a 44-35-10-2% break. In Ranked Choice Voting, the primary sends four candidates to the general election and the pollsters project these individuals would be the eventual finalists.
Since no one receives majority support in the initial round, RCV begins, and Mr. Bye is eliminated. In the second round, Rep. Peltola would lead 48-41-12% over Begich and Dahlstrom. This result would lead to Ms. Dahlstrom’s elimination. The third round finds Peltola and Begich in a dead tie at 50-50%. Though Rep. Peltola has a ten point personal favorability spread, the best of all the tested politicians, it appears the electoral system makes this race a toss-up. California: General Election Becoming Clearer: More vote totals are being released from the long California ballot counting process, and congressional general election matchups are now becoming cemented. In preparation for Tuesday’s special election to replace resigned House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, it is now likely that we will see a double-Republican regular general election between Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux. To the Democrats’ benefit in open Districts 30 and 31, Democratic-Republican general elections appear to be the final result. Such pairings would almost assuredly elect state Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank) to replace Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), and former Congressman Gil Cisneros (D) returning to the House to succeed retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) also appears to be a certainty. The closest race is occurring in open District 16 where Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring. Former San Jose Mayor Sam Riccardo (D) has secured the first general election position, but the battle for second place is still undecided. San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) has yielded second place to Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell). The razor thin margin is only 59 votes between the two according to the Secretary of State’s official count. An unspecified number of ballots remain uncounted. District 16 will definitely send two Democrats to the general election, but the second finalist position is still undecided. CO-4: Boebert Won’t Run in Special: Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) announced yesterday that she will not compete in the special election to replace resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor) but will remain in the race for the full term. Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams, who is himself a congressional candidate in open District 5, announced that he will be assembling a committee of party leaders and elected officials to choose a 4th District special election nominee within “the next several weeks.” Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the state’s June 25th primary election. The Democrats have a selection committee of over 200 members and the party leadership says a special vote to choose their nominee will occur on April 1st. The move not to enter the special makes sense for Boebert. It is highly unlikely that she would be chosen as the committee’s nominee since she currently represents another district. Therefore, if the Congresswoman wins the regular primary election it is irrelevant as to who would hold the seat for the remainder of this term. Unless the special election winner also wins the regular primary on the same day, then said person will not compete in the general election. Ohio: Dolan Takes Lead in New Poll: Emerson College polled the tight Ohio Senate primary (3/7-10; 443 OH likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and finds a change on the leader board. For the first time in any survey, state Senator Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians professional baseball club, has taken the Republican primary lead. According to the Emerson findings, Sen. Dolan posts a 26-23-16% edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively.
Also, this week Gov. Mike DeWine (R) endorsed Sen. Dolan, which may counter to a degree former President Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Moreno. In the 2022 Senate race, Sen. Dolan came on strong at the end and fell just one point short of finishing second. In this race, which will be decided in the Ohio plurality primary on Tuesday, he again appears to be finishing the campaign with momentum. Tuesday’s winner will then face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important 2024 national Senate races. CO-4: Clarifying the Situation: Several reports are circulating around the Internet suggesting that Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is ineligible to run in the special election to replace now resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor). Such a statement is incorrect. Ms. Boebert weeks ago announced that she would seek Buck’s open 4th District, thus bypassing running in a tough re-election campaign in her own 3rd CD. Therefore, the legal eligibility is no different for a special election. Should she run in and win the special, she would then have to resign her 3rd District seat, thus likely requiring another special election to fill that vacancy.
Practically speaking, however, it is unlikely that Boebert will run in the special election because a 4th District party leadership committee is unlikely to choose her. Under Colorado law, the political parties select the nominees to fill vacancies, meaning there is just one election for voters to pick the replacement. Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the June 25th state primary. Also, since the special and the regular primary is on the same day, there will be no incumbency advantage for the regular term. Should a different person win the special and regular primary, the two would not face each other. If the special election winner failed to win the regular primary, that individual would only serve the balance of the term and not appear on the general election ballot. Certainly, the Buck resignation has changed the District 4 political dynamics, but it does not particularly affect Rep. Boebert more adversely than any of the other candidates. MT-2: Candidates File: Considering Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) indecision about whether he would run for the House, Senate, or for no office, the large Republican field of potential candidates interested in running for Montana’s 2nd Congressional District were in a state of flux. Now that we know the seat will be open for the 2024 election and candidate filing has closed, we see nine contenders for the post. Three current or former statewide officeholders are in the GOP field: State Auditor Troy Downing, Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and former at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg. Also, in the Republican race are state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), ex-state Senators Ric Holden and Ed Walker, former state Rep. Joel Krautter, pharmacist Kyle Austin, and retired DEA agent Stacy Zinn. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the MT-2 seat R+30, and former President Trump posted a 62-35% victory here in 2020. Therefore, the June 4th Republican plurality primary winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election. NC-6: Walker Won’t Force Runoff; McDowell Unofficially Wins Seat: Former Congressman Mark Walker, who finished second to lobbyist and former congressional aide Addison McDowell in the March 5th Republican primary announced yesterday that he will not pursue his entitled runoff election. In North Carolina, a candidate must receive 30% of the vote to win a nomination outright. In this election, McDowell posted 26% of the vote, and Walker 24%. Instead of continuing his congressional campaign, Mr. Walker announced that he has accepted former President Donald Trump’s offer to become the national campaign’s Director of Outreach for Faith and Minority Communities. The move means that Mr. McDowell, who Mr. Trump endorsed in the Republican primary, wins the congressional seat. Post-2023 redistricting, Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) decided not to seek re-election because she saw no path for victory. The Democrats then didn’t even file a candidate. It is still possible, however, for an Independent or minor party candidate to file. Their deadline is May 5th. Even if one or more should run, Mr. McDowell’s general election victory is virtually assured. Therefore, North Carolina’s 6th District becomes the Republicans’ first unofficial conversion victory for the 2024 regular election cycle. Primary Results: GA, HI, MS, WA: Primaries were held in three states last night, and even without results from the Hawaii Caucuses, both President Biden and former President Trump exceeded the bound delegate vote requirement to score first ballot nominations. Therefore, both men become their party’s “presumptive nominee,” meaning they will become the official standard bearer at the respective party conventions in July (Republicans) and August (Democrats).
The Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries went as expected with both Messrs. Biden and Trump winning with landslide totals against opponents who appear on the ballot but have withdrawn from the race. Mississippi was the state that held its full ballot primary last night. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) won renomination against two opponents with just over 60% of the vote. Mr. Wicker won all but ten counties in the state from a total universe of 82. All four Magnolia State US House incumbents were either unopposed for renomination or easily won. Freshman Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) had two GOP opponents, and still surpassed 73% of the vote. All four: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mr. Ezell, now become prohibitive favorites to win again in November. California: More Finalists Projected: As the California ballot counting process moves laboriously along, the Associated Press is projecting that three more candidates will qualify for the general election from the top-two jungle primary. In the Los Angeles anchored 34th District, both incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) and movie executive David Kim (D) will again advance into the general election. This will be the third consecutive election in which the two have faced each other in a double-Democratic contest. In 2022, Rep. Gomez only registered a 51-49% general election win over Mr. Kim, so another close race is expected later this year.
In the open South San Francisco Bay seat from which veteran Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) is assured of advancing to the November election, but his eventual opponent has still not been decided. In second place is San Mateo Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D), who is only 749 votes ahead of Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) with approximately 26,000 ballots remaining to be counted. CO-4: Rep. Buck to Resign Setting Up New Special Election: Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who had previously made public his intentions not to seek a sixth term later this year, announced yesterday that he will resign on March 22nd. The move initiates the calling of a special congressional election, the fourth in the country prior to the regular general election. Gov. Jared Polis (D) responded that he will schedule the special vote concurrently with the state’s June 25th primary election. Special election nominations are handled through vacancy committees that the local political parties construct. This means the voters will go to the polls only once to fill the balance of the current term. This system likely plays to Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) detriment. It is highly unlikely that the District 4 vacancy committee members will choose her as the party nominee considering she is still the District 3 incumbent. This also means the dozen announced candidates already vying to replace Rep. Buck will see one of their colleagues likely chosen for the special. Whoever wins the special will have a major advantage in the subsequent November regular election if the primary electorate chooses someone in the regular primary other than whom the vacancy committee decided upon. Another option the committee may have is to select someone who agrees not to seek a full term. Therefore, we will see more political drama occurring in Colorado as the campaign to replace Rep. Buck continues to unfold. North Carolina: Two More Close Polls: Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are the official gubernatorial nominees of their respective political parties after last Tuesday's primary vote, Survey USA and the Cygnal firm went into the field to test the general election between the two new official nominees.
The S-USA poll, conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh (3/6-9; 850 NC adults; 736 NC registered voters; 598 NC likely general election voters; online), sees AG Stein leading Lt. Gov. Robinson by a tight 44-42% margin, which is in the consistent realm of previously released surveys. When asked about presidential preference, the sampling universe would favor former President Donald Trump over President Biden by a 50-45% margin in this most critical of swing states. The Cygnal survey was conducted during the March 6-7 period (600 NC likely voters; live interview & text) and produced a slightly different outcome. While projecting a similarly close result as Survey USA, Cygnal sees Lt. Gov. Robinson leading the gubernatorial race with a 44-39% spread. The latter firm also finds former President Trump holding a five point lead over President Biden but with a different 45-40% count. Primaries Today: GA, HI, MS, WA: Voters go to the polls today in Georgia, Hawaii (Republican Caucus only), Mississippi (full primary), and Washington.
In all, there are 161 Republican delegates at stake in the four states, and with former President Donald Trump already having 1,078 bound delegates of the 1,215 he needs to score a first ballot victory, securing just over 85% of the available delegates tonight will allow him to clinch “presumptive nominee” status. This means he will have enough bound delegates to claim a first ballot victory at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee during mid-July. For President Biden, it appears he will clinch “presumptive nominee” status next week in the March 19th primaries. In Mississippi, a quiet night is expected regarding the full ballot primary. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) faces two Republican challengers, including state Rep. Dan Eubanks (R-Walls), but there is little doubt the incumbent will be renominated outright for a fourth term tonight. In House races, each of the state’s four incumbents: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula), are seeking re-election and only Mr. Ezell faces an intra-party challenge. The first-term Congressman, who unseated then-Rep. Steven Palazzo in the 2022 Republican nomination battle, faces two Republican opponents. Businessman Carl Boyanton, who finished fifth in the 2022 congressional primary with just 6.2% of the vote, returns for a re-match with Mr. Ezell, and retired Army veteran Michael McGill joins them. Rep. Ezell is expected to easily win renomination tonight, thus avoiding an April 2nd runoff election. Should any candidate fail to reach majority support in the initial primary, a runoff election then becomes mandatory. |
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