National Polls: A Virtual Tie: From July 21-24, eight political pollsters conducted national ballot tests of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The surveys produced mixed results. All were conducted online and came from Activote, YouGov, Ipsos, RMG Research, Big Village, Change Research, Morning Consult, and the New York Times/Siena College. The range was from Harris +4 to Trump +3. Of the nine polls (YouGov ran two), Trump was ahead in five results and Harris four.
New Hampshire: First Polls Favor Harris: While polling was showing former President Trump pulling just ahead of former President Biden in New Hampshire before the latter man left the race, two new surveys see a reversal back toward the Democratic nominee in identical margins. St. Anselm’s College and the University of New Hampshire, both regular Granite State pollsters, went into the field to test Mr. Trump against presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. St. Anselm’s (7/24-25; 2,083 NH registered voters; online) sees Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump, 50-44%. UNH (7/23-25; 2,875 NH registered voters; online) found a similar 49-43% spread. Both detected the six point margin. Mr. Trump did not run well in New Hampshire in the last election, losing to President Biden, 53-45%. Therefore, continued polling results such as seen in these two flash polls may suggest the Trump campaign will move to more fertile territory. TX-18: Potential Candidates Begin Making Moves: The death of veteran Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) means the Harris County Democratic Party will choose a replacement on the November ballot for Ms. Jackson Lee. The Committee members must make their selection before August 26th, but the leadership indicates the body will act well before the deadline.
Potential Democratic candidates include former Houston Mayor and ex-state Representative Sylvester Turner, at-large Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former US Senate and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards. The 18th District, fully contained within Harris County, is heavily Democratic. Therefore, whomever the party members choose will assuredly win the seat in November. Thus, this small group of activists will have the power to designate the area’s next member of Congress. House Democrats: Vulnerable Members Break Ranks: Six Democrats broke party ranks to support a Republican resolution criticizing Vice President Harris’ role in securing the border. Not surprisingly, the six are all in competitive House districts, and among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. They are: Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8), Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Jared Golden (D-ME-2), Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA-3). Democratic National Committee: Schedules Virtual Vote: Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison announced that in fact the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention. The voting period will occur over multiple days culminating with an August 7th deadline, or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago. At this point, it appears that Ms. Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.
The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention that could bring chaos, gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning, and allows them to make the convention a unifying event. Trump Pollster: Predicting a Harris Bump: Trump for President pollster Tony Fabrizio yesterday issued a public letter predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris will see a bump in national polling because of her “honeymoon” with the institutional media and Democratic rank and file. He also predicted the polling would eventually return to the earlier pattern that posted former President Trump to consistent small leads. In the past two days, we have seen three national polls released. Including the Independent and minor party candidates, RMG Research (7/22-23; 2,000 US registered voters; online) sees Mr. Trump holding a two point, 48-46%, edge over Ms. Harris. Ipsos/Reuters, polling over the same period (7/22-23; 1,018 US registered voters; online) finds a different result, posting Harris over Trump with a four-point, 42-38% spread. Finally, YouGov polling for The Economist publication (7/21-23; 1,435 US registered voters; online) sees a tally closer to RMG: Trump leading Harris, 44-41%. We can expect to see close but inconsistent polling from now until the latter stages of the election. It is likely Mr. Fabrizio is correct about a forthcoming Harris bump, but things will start to stabilize once early voting begins in earnest come mid-October. Pennsylvania: Pattern Continues: A new Pennsylvania poll again finds a pattern that is troubling Republicans. While Donald Trump leads in the presidential contest, the Republican Senate candidate lags far behind the Democratic incumbent.
North Star Opinion Research, polling for the American Greatness Super PAC (7/20-23; 600 PA likely voters; live interview) tested the Pennsylvania electorate. While some of the respondents were interviewed before President Biden announced his decision to withdraw from his re-election bid, we still see the sample members favoring former President Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by a 47-45% margin. Conversely, in the Senate election, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) enjoys a 49-41% spread over Republican David McCormick. The combined totals suggest a net ten point swing between Mr. Trump’s standing in the national campaign and that of Mr. McCormick in the Senate race. Unless Republicans can find a better way of tying their Senate candidates’ support to that of Mr. Trump, the party’s goal of reaching 53 or 54 Senate seats in the next Congress will not come to fruition. NM-2: Another Cliff Hanger: After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3 – 49.7% margin.
A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign (7/11-14; 400 NM-2 likely voters; live interview) finds the former Congresswoman clutching to a 48-46% edge over Rep. Vasquez. At this point, it is unclear which candidate wins the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight. Trump Campaign: Files FEC Complaint Against Harris: Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission arguing that Vice President Kamala Harris’ new campaign committee is not entitled to a direct transfer of the some $95+ million that President Joe Biden held in his campaign account. Many believe that because she was on the presidential ticket her campaign committee would have access to the funds.
The Trump lawyers point out, however, that the official name of the presidential committee is simply, “Joe Biden for President.” The committee name has been changed to “Harris for President,” which the Trump operation claims is premature and an infraction of campaign finance law. Should the complaint before the Commission end in a three to three tie, with the three Republicans voting to affirm the complaint and the three Democrats against, the Trump campaign could then take the measure to court. Arizona: Gallego Expands Lead: Countering the last three July polls that found the Arizona Senate race tightening to within the polling margin of error, Public Policy Polling released new data (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; 7/19-20; 736 AZ registered voters; live interview & text) that posts US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to a seven point advantage, 49-42%, over former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.
In the Presidential race, former President Trump leads Vice President Harris, 46-40%, again finding the familiar pattern of the Republican Senate nominee dropping behind the GOP ticket leader. In terms of approval rating, Mr. Trump scored a 47:49% favorability index. This compares well opposite Ms. Harris’ poor 38:55% positive to negative ratio. Nevada: Race Tightens: British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (polling for The Telegraph publication; 7/16-18; 412 NV likely voters; part of a 5,005 sampling universe covering Nevada and seven other states) tested the Nevada Senate race and sees a tighter result than most recent polls. The ballot test found Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R), 41-37%. Recently, after a barrage of Rosen advertising, the Senator had been posting leads as high as eight and 12 points. New Jersey: Sen. Menendez to Officially Resign: After indicating that he would resign from the Senate after being found guilty of bribery but not providing any specifics, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced yesterday that he will leave the Senate on August 20th. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) immediately indicated that he will appoint a replacement for the outgoing Senator to serve the balance of the term. It is unlikely that he will appoint Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) who won the Democratic nomination after Menendez decided not to seek renomination and Gov. Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, withdrew from the Senate race. Sen. Menendez then filed as an Independent for the Senate, but that was a move largely to qualify to legally spend his campaign money on legal fees. As a non-candidate, he could not have used the funds for such an expenditure. It is now likely he will also withdraw his Independent candidacy. Rep. Kim is favored to defeat Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw in the November general election. Michigan: Pensler Out; Two Polls: Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) announced that he is abandoning his own campaign and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The Congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
A pair of polls were also released of the general election yielding considerably different results. While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; 7/13-17; 600 MI registered voters), sees the Congresswoman posting a three point lead over Mr. Rogers, 43-40%. Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (7/17-18; 650 MI registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38% result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys. Pennsylvania: A Polling Trifecta: Three pollsters surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error. The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (7/20-21; 500 PA likely voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a ten point lead over Mr. McCormick, 50-40%, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46%. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (7/17-18; 624 PA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result with Sen. Casey ahead 11 points, 50-39%. Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph publication; 7/16-18; 688 PA likely voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test and projects that Sen. Casey would lead Mr. McCormick 44-37% with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points. VA-5: Post-Election Process Drags On: Soon after state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) was certified the Republican primary winner by a 374 vote margin, defeated Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) announced he would finance a recount. The election authorities have now said that they won’t begin the recount until August 1st, and that Mr. Good would be charged $97,000 for the process. Should the recount turn the election in Mr. Good’s favor, however, he would not be charged. The chances of an overturn remain slim.
Montana: Qualifies Two Election Change Propositions: It appears Montana voters, unless the Secretary of State’s appeal of a judicial ruling that allows inactive voter signatures to count toward initiative qualification is successful, will vote on two measures to alter their nomination system.
As will occur in Idaho, this year’s Montana proposition would change the partisan primary system to a top four jungle primary as found in Alaska. The Ranked Choice Voting system that is part of the Alaska law, however, is not included here. The legislature and Governor enacted a law to ban the RCV in all Montana elections. The second measure would require candidates to have majority support to secure election to a public office but does not specify what will happen for those contests that end in a plurality result. |
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