A just-released Franklin & Marshall College poll (3/19-26; 423 PA registered voters) gives us some new information about the Keystone State’s political affairs, but the methodology is suspect.  The sample size is small for a statewide poll in a large domain, the sampling period long, the error factor high (6.8%), and the results yield a slight Democratic skew.  Though the flaws are obviously significant, the ballot test result finds Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton), 43-25%.

--Jim Ellis

Earlier this week, Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron Corbett, the Mayor of Cedar Rapids, was disqualified from the ballot for being eight valid nominating petition signatures short of the 4,005 minimum statewide requirement.  Earlier in the week he claimed not to have the funds to file a legal challenge, even though Mr. Corbett said he believed he would prevail in court.  Yesterday, he reversed course and now will challenge the Iowa State Objection Panel’s decision to invalidate more than 100 signatures. 
 
Mr. Corbett is challenging Gov. Kim Reynolds in the Republican primary.  Always viewed as a long shot, Corbett is even in a more difficult situation if his campaign financial resources are so low that filing a legal challenge is questionable.  Ms. Reynolds ascended to the Governorship when incumbent Terry Branstad (R) was appointed US Ambassador to China.

--Jim Ellis

Real estate developer Theresa Greenfield’s congressional candidacy was seesawing between qualifying for the ballot and not during the past few days.  Enough of Ms. Greenfield’s ballot petition signatures were ruled invalid to keep her from attaining official candidate status.  After the Iowa State Objection Panel decided that she did not earn ballot placement, the 3rd District Democratic Committee attempted to apply an obscure withdrawal law to override the panel’s decision, but in the end their efforts failed.  When Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller issuing an opinion supporting the Objection Panel’s ruling, Ms. Greenfield announced that she will end her candidacy.
 
The administrative bungle is a major blow to Democratic chances of unseating two-term Rep. David Young (R-Van Meter/Des Moines).  Since the Committee fought hard to get her on the ballot, it is obvious that the party insiders felt Ms. Greenfield was their best candidate.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Franklin & Marshall College poll finds Gov. Tom Wolf (D) comfortably leading the filed Republican candidates.  Against state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York), Gov. Wolf records a 38-21% advantage.  Paired with the other two Republican candidates, the Governor fares better.  If former Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce president Laura Ellsworth were the GOP nominee, the Governor’s advantage would be 51-22%.  Opposite businessman Paul Mango, Mr. Wolf’s general election polling advantage registers a 40-22% spread.

--Jim Ellis

Missouri candidate filing closed yesterday, and the Secretary of State reports that 20 individuals are challenging Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), but there is little doubt that the August 7th primary will yield the incumbent facing Attorney General Josh Hawley (R).
 
In the House races, all eight incumbents are seeking another term, and each is favored in the ensuing general election.  In total, 53 individuals have filed papers to run for the House of Representatives, including 22 Democrats, 18 Republicans, and 13 minor party registrants. 
 
The Governor’s election is not on the ballot until 2020.

--Jim Ellis

Though the California candidate filing deadline passed on March 9th, the Secretary of State has just now released the qualified list, those filed candidates who successfully fulfill all state legal requirements.  Originally, almost 300 individuals filed to become congressional candidates in California’s 53 districts.  On the final list, 247 of those prospective federal political contenders were officially approved.  This includes incumbent, challenger, and open seat candidates who are members of all recognized political parties under California law.  Only three of the 51 incumbents seeking re-election are completely unopposed. 
 
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) draws 31 official opponents, nine Democrats, eleven Republicans, and 11 minor party or independent candidates.  In the open Governor’s race, 27 individuals are now qualified candidates. 
 
California has no partisan primary.  All candidates will appear together on the June 5th qualifying election ballot.  The top two individuals in every race, regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained, will advance to the general election.

--Jim Ellis

National Democratic pollster Expedition Strategies surveyed the open Silver State gubernatorial primary scheduled for June 12th.  According to the poll (3/17-19; 600 NV likely Democratic primary voters) Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani holds a slight 31-27% edge over her local governing board colleague, Commissioner Steve Sisolak.  The result confirms that the Democratic nomination is up for grabs.  The winner will face the eventual GOP nominee, most likely Attorney General Adam Laxalt.  Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

New Gov. Henry McMaster (R), who ascended to the state’s top position when incumbent Nikki Haley (R) was appointed US Ambassador to the United Nations, already faces four declared Republicans and three Democrats as tomorrow’s candidate filing deadline fast approaches in preparation for the June 12th primary election.   
 
The Save the Children Action Network commissioned a joint Democratic and Republican poll that was just released (TargetPoint Consulting/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research; 3/10-17; 800 SC registered voters; 397 SC likely Republican primary voters; 296 SC likely Democratic voters), and the totals find Gov. McMaster pulling 41% support.  Former Haley cabinet official Catherine Templeton is next with 10%, followed by Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant’s five percent, while former Democratic Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill posts 3%, and Greenville businessman John Warren stands at 2% support. 
 
For the Democrats, state Rep. James Smith (D-Columbia) leads with 18% over Florence attorney Marguerite Willis’ 11%, and Charleston businessman Phil Noble who garners seven percent.  If no candidate receives majority support in the original primary election, the top two finishers in each party then advance to a June 26th run-off election.

--Jim Ellis

Way back in June of last year, Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett launched a Republican primary challenge to new Governor Kim Reynolds, soon after she succeeded departing Gov. Terry Branstad who had been appointed US Ambassador to China.  Yesterday, it appears that the Corbett challenge has ended before it officially began.  The Iowa State Objection Panel ruled that Mr. Corbett did not submit enough valid petition signatures to qualify him for a ballot position.  The minimum number of valid signatures for Iowa statewide candidates to obtain is 4,005.   Mr. Corbett submitted only 4,088, according to reports, thus leaving him with no accuracy leeway.  Immediately, 100 of those signatures were determined to be duplicates.  Mr. Corbett has legal recourse but may not be able to finance a challenge.  For now, Gov. Reynolds is unopposed for re-nomination.

--Jim Ellis

In an unsurprising move, since he was taking no action to become a candidate other than to not rule out running, state House Speaker Kurt Daudt (R-Crown) said yesterday that he will not enter the Iron Range 8th District open US House race, and was almost equally definitive that he won’t run for Governor.  St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber continues as the leading Republican candidate for the open congressional district, a seat that Republicans believe will be converted.  In the last two elections, retiring Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Crosby/Duluth) has won by 1.4 percentage points (2014), and less than ½ percent (2016). 

--Jim Ellis