Survey USA released their latest Georgia Senate survey (12/16-20; 600 GA likely voters; live interview; weighted responses) that finds Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock expanding leads over previous polls. The S-USA data finds Mr. Ossoff leading Sen. David Perdue (R), 51-46%, while Rev. Warnock has a 52-45% advantage over appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R).
These numbers, and especially the crosstabs that suggest Ossoff and Warnock have 27 and 25 point leads among those reporting as voting early, does not track with reported early vote numbers, however. According to the Target Smart statistical organization, the Democrats have filed 47.5% of the early and mail ballots versus 46.2% for Republicans among the 1,669,675 ballots recorded as being received.
A wild card are the 105,997 votes from unaffiliated voters. Unlike in the regular general election when these voters could have voted for a minor party candidate, in the runoff, all of these votes will have been cast for one of the major party candidates in both Senate races. Election Day is January 5th. Clearly, a close finish is expected.
The Target Smart statistical organization reports the latest numbers coming from the Georgia runoff elections as they relate to pre-election in-person and mail voting. At the end of last week, over 1.329 million votes have been received throughout the state. This is just over 241,000 less than in the regular 2020 election. The total count finds Democrats returning 47.0% of the pre-election votes; Republicans’ 46.7%; and minor party or unaffiliated voters, 6.2%.
Comparing these numbers to the regular 2020 election sees the Democratic advantage slipping slightly. For the November election, Democrats returned 47.7% of the ballots versus 45.8% for Republicans. Though President Trump lost the state with these numbers, Republican candidates in both Senate races ran slightly ahead of their Democratic opponents.
It appears the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election will be a re-match between Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D). It appears, however, that they will have some company. Shane Hazel, who scored a 2.3% vote share in the 2020 regular Senate election on the Libertarian Party ballot line, thus forcing the runoff election between Sen. David Perdue (R) and Democrat Jon Ossoff, said at the end of last week that he will seek his party’s gubernatorial nomination in 2022.
His vote could conceivably again force the major party candidates into a runoff election if the battle is again as close as the 2018 election. Libertarian Ted Metz was on the 2018 gubernatorial ballot but only attracted 0.95% of the vote. That total was not enough to deny Gov. Kemp majority support.
The Insider Advantage polling firm just released new surveys that find both Republican contenders forging small leads over their Democratic rivals, margins consistent when compared with earlier polling.
According to the IA data (12/14; 500 GA likely voters; live interview), Sens. David Perdue (R) and Kelly Loeffler (R) hold an identical 49-48% edge over Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively. This is more evidence that the Georgia runoffs are becoming a turnout battle. The party best convincing their voters to participate will likely win both campaigns.
After calling for Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s (R) resignation for his handling of the November 3rd voting procedures, Sen. David Perdue (R) and appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) are again joining forces to publicly criticize their fellow Republican.
Yesterday, the two issued statements demanding that Raffensperger release the new registered voters list, something he has failed to do even though the registration period ended on December 7th. The two are concerned because of progressive left organizations encouraging people to move to Georgia for a short time in order to vote in the runoff elections. As the Senators explained, early voting began yesterday and there is no official updated voter registration list available to determine who is a lawful voter.
A pair of newly released Georgia Senate runoff polls again find the two races in toss-up mode. The Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group (12/8-10; 1,018 GA likely runoff voters; combination online and text responses) sees Sen. David Perdue (R) and documentary filmmaker Jon Ossoff (D) tied at 49% apiece. In the special election, Trafalgar posts appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) to a three-point lead over Rev. Raphael Warnock (D), 50-47%.
The Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research team, featuring a bipartisan Republican and Democratic survey research approach (11/30-12/4; 1,250 GA likely voters; live interview with an emphasis on those 50 years of age and older), on behalf of the AARP organization, projects a similar result in the pair of campaigns but with the Democrats in better position. Fabrizio/Hart data finds Mr. Ossoff holding a two-point, 48-46% lead, with Rev. Warnock up a point, 47-46%, over Sen. Loeffler.
It is important to remember, however, that the Trafalgar data is the more recent of the two surveys. The time difference between the two is ten days from the beginning of the earlier poll to the conclusion of the latter.
The Trafalgar Group and RMG Research just released early December/late November polls for the two Georgia runoff Senate races. While the two pollsters found the same result for the Sen. David Perdue/Jon Ossoff race, there is wide disparity in the Sen. Kelly Loeffler/Raphael Warnock contest.
Both Trafalgar (12/1-3; 1,083 GA likely voters; online and interactive voice response system) and RMG Research (11/19-24; 1,083 GA likely voters; online and text) find Mr. Ossoff holding a 48-47% lead over Sen. Perdue, which is obviously a statistical tie.
The special election came out quite differently, however, and the difference in when the polls were taken (RMG before Thanksgiving; Trafalgar after) could partly explain the polling range. Trafalgar sees Sen. Loeffler holding a 50-45% lead over Rev. Warnock in the later poll, while RMG detected a two-point Warnock edge, at 48-46% in the pre-holiday study.
Though his tenure in the US House will literally be only one month long, former Atlanta City Councilman Kwanza Hall (D) defeated fellow Democrat Robert Franklin to win the special election runoff to fill the unexpired portion of the late Rep. John Lewis’ (D-Atlanta) final term in office. Mr. Hall did not enter the race for the full term. The winner of the regular election, state Sen. Nikema Williams (D-Atlanta) who is also the Georgia Democratic Party chair, will take the seat in January.
Mr. Hall’s victory margin was 54-46%. Just over 22,000 people voted in the special election. Georgia law required a separate special election because the statute does not allow a congressional seat to be vacant for any longer than a certain specified period. Therefore, the state had no option but to run the special election even though the term in office would only be one month. Ms. Williams, declined to run in the special election, instead concentrating on winning the full term.
Atlanta-based Insider Advantage released new polling data for the upcoming Georgia Senate runoff elections. The survey (11/16; 800 GA likely runoff voters; live interview and interactive voice response system) found Democrat Raphael Warnock running slightly ahead of appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), 49-48%, in the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. In the race for the in-cycle six-year term, incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R) and documentary film producer Jon Ossoff (D) are tied at 49% apiece.
VCreek/AMG was also in the field, polling for the Americas PAC. This survey (11/10; 300 GA likely runoff voters; live interview and interactive voice response system) sees Sen. Loeffler running ahead of Rev. Warnock, 50-46%. We can expect close polling in these two races all the way to the January 5th election day.
The Remington Research Group is the first to release data for the January 5th Georgia Senate runoff featuring both of the state’s incumbents. According to the Remington data (11/8-9; 1.450 GA likely voters; interactive voice response system), Sen. David Perdue (R) holds a 50-46% lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff in the A race, and appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) edges Democrat Raphael Warnock, 49-48%, in the B campaign.
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