Survey USA released their latest Georgia Senate survey (12/16-20; 600 GA likely voters; live interview; weighted responses) that finds Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock expanding leads over previous polls. The S-USA data finds Mr. Ossoff leading Sen. David Perdue (R), 51-46%, while Rev. Warnock has a 52-45% advantage over appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R).
These numbers, and especially the crosstabs that suggest Ossoff and Warnock have 27 and 25 point leads among those reporting as voting early, does not track with reported early vote numbers, however. According to the Target Smart statistical organization, the Democrats have filed 47.5% of the early and mail ballots versus 46.2% for Republicans among the 1,669,675 ballots recorded as being received.
A wild card are the 105,997 votes from unaffiliated voters. Unlike in the regular general election when these voters could have voted for a minor party candidate, in the runoff, all of these votes will have been cast for one of the major party candidates in both Senate races. Election Day is January 5th. Clearly, a close finish is expected.
The Rundown Blog
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