Emerson College released a new survey of the OH-15 special election to be decided on November 2nd. The poll (10/14-16; 445 OH-15 likely special election voters; interactive voice response system and online) finds former Ohio Coal Association chairman Mike Carey (R) leading state Rep. Allison Russo (D-Columbus) by a 50-39% count. When self-described leaners to each candidate are added to the mix, Mr. Carey’s lead expands to 59-41%.
Consultant Jim Bognet, the 2020 Republican nominee who held Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) to a 52-48% re-election victory, announced yesterday that he will return for a re-match next year. With the 8th District requiring 51,779 more people to reach the required population quota, which means redistricting could add some outlying Republicans to the seat, and taking advantage of what could be a favorable Republican tide coming in 2022, Mr. Bognet feels he would have a chance to add the minimum two-plus percentage points needed to flip the seat.
State Rep. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton) announced yesterday that she is suspending her congressional campaign committee after seeing the new congressional redistricting map pass the legislature. Declaring the map “an extreme Republican gerrymander,” Ms. Beckley said she will not challenge freshman Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving).
The 24th District electorate voted 52-46% in favor of Joe Biden, but returned to the Republican column to elect Ms. Van Duyne in a close electoral contest. The new 24th would have favored Mr. Trump, 55-43% according to the Daily Kos Elections statistical team. Statewide, the map protects all incumbents of both parties and may give the Republicans the chance to gain a net one seat.
Being unable to agree upon a new congressional map, the Virginia Redistricting Commission ceased its map drawing on an indefinite basis. The Commission is empowered until November 8th, but it appears the deadlock will allow the state Supreme Court to draw the new map.
Monmouth University, carrying an A rating from the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization as their tenth best pollster in the country, released their latest Virginia ballot test numbers (10/16-19; 1,005 VA registered voters; live interview). The results show a dead heat between former Governor Terry McAuliffe and ex-hedge fund CEO Glenn Youngkin with each candidate scoring 46% support.
Monmouth releases numbers based upon various turnout models. Under their most favorable Democratic model, McAuliffe leads by three points. Likewise for Youngkin under the commensurate Republican turnout model. The enthusiasm gap continues to favor the Republicans as they appear to have a seven-point advantage on the question. The Monmouth data finds Mr. Youngkin gaining and seemingly gaining the momentum as we head into the campaign’s final stretch.
Veteran Raleigh area Congressman David Price announced yesterday that he will not seek an 18th non-consecutive term in the House. Mr. Price, 81 years of age, was first elected in 1986, but lost the district in the 1994 Republican landslide. He returned two years later to re-gain his seat, and has not seriously been challenged since. Democrats will likely retain the 4th District seat under the new redistricting map, unless the plan changes as a result of Mr. Price retiring.
In the second retirement announcement of the day, 14-term Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh) declared his intention to retire after the current congressional session adjourns. His retirement makes it even more likely that the Pittsburgh area will absorb the seat loss from reapportionment that reduced the PA delegation from 18 to 17 seats. Neighboring Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) leaving his seat to run for the Senate makes it logical that these seats will be part of the necessary plan to collapse the state contingent of districts.
With Messrs. Doyle and Price adding their names to the retirement list, 25 seats will be open in the 2022 election cycle, counting the seven transferred seats from national reapportionment.
Maps to re-draw Texas’ congressional and state legislative districts have now passed both houses of the legislature and are headed to Gov. Greg Abbott (R) for his signature. The congressional map adds two districts, one likely for each party, and creates a district for each current incumbent. A possible swing of one seat toward the Republicans could be the net result. Upon Mr. Abbott signing the legislation, Texas will become the seventh state to complete the redistricting process.
Now that the Texas map is virtually law, veteran Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) announced yesterday that he will run for re-election in new district 37, which is a safe Democratic district fully contained within Travis County. Currently, Mr. Doggett’s 35th District runs from Austin to San Antonio. Leaving District 35 open will likely lead to a Hispanic Democrat having the inside track to claiming the seat in 2022.
State Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami), who was former Governor Charlie Crist’s (D) running mate in the 2014 election, is now his opponent. Sen. Taddeo entered the Governor’s race yesterday where she will face Mr. Crist and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary. Ms. Taddeo has also run unsuccessfully for Congress in the past. She begins as an underdog for the party nomination but hopes to construct a large enough Hispanic base to win a plurality three-way campaign.
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