The Politico newspaper ran a story yesterday Politico Ossoff Story - 3-30-17 that discusses the possibility that consensus Democratic special election candidate Jon Ossoff could win the 18-candidate contest with an outright victory, meaning taking more than 50% of the vote, in the jungle primary scheduled for April 18th.  Polling has suggested that Ossoff could finish in first place and advance to the run-off, but the idea of him winning outright is far-fetched.
 
First, most of the polling for this race is flawed in that it only lists about a third of the candidates running, or less.  But, even in that configuration Ossoff never comes close to 50%, and in all polls the sum of the Republican preference is greater than Ossoff’s total.   In the one poll that did include all of the participants, Opinion Savvy’s data conducted for Fox 5 Atlanta (3/22-23; 462 GA-6 likely special election voters), Ossoff reaches 40%, and the combined Democratic total among their five candidates is 43.5%.  The combined Republican total is 52.4%.
 
The crux of the article talks about how the Democrats are more energized, and thus Ossoff could accrue a majority because of favorable turnout patterns.  One must remember that Republicans heavily outnumber Democrats in this seat.  While generally a consensus candidate for one party in a crowded field can generate enough support to qualify for a two-person run-off, the mathematics, and even the polling, do not suggest that any candidate could receive a majority vote in this particular special election.
 
Despite the hype, the Republicans are still favored to hold this seat.  While President Trump carried the district with only a 1.5 percent margin, it is important to remember that Rep. Tom Price (R-Roswell), the seven-term GOP incumbent who left the seat to become Health and Human Services Secretary - hence the need for this special election - scored 62% in the same election last November and averaged 76.1% of the vote during his congressional career - 64.1% since the seat was re-drawn in its current configuration.

​The Montana at-large special election was thought to be a rather quiet affair, with Republican businessman Greg Gianforte winning a comfortable victory on May 25th over folk singer Rob Quist.  While a Gianforte win may well be the final result, the campaign will be more competitive than many first thought.  The Democratic nominee is showing substantial fundraising prowess.  The musician candidate announced he has already raised $754,000 for the special election, meaning that he is guaranteed to run a significant campaign. 
 
Armed with endorsements from key Montana labor unions and liberal interest groups, Quist is taking conservative positions on the 2nd Amendment and tax reform, meaning that the race is becoming considerably more interesting.  Mr. Gianforte has not yet indicated how much he has raised for the coming special election, but spent over $5.5 million of his own money in his close November race for Governor.

​The Houston Chronicle is confirming that El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke (D) will formally announce by Friday that he will challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) for re-election next year.   If successful, the three-term Representative will be the first El Paso native ever elected to a major Texas statewide office. 
 
The move had been speculated upon for several months, and more than likely pre-empts Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) from getting into the statewide race.  The latter had also been contemplating opposing Cruz, but did not seem as serious about running as O’Rourke.  Mr. Castro still says, however, that he is considering running and will decide “in several weeks.” 
 
Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the late Lloyd Bentsen was re-elected in 1988.  No Democrat has won a statewide office of any kind since 1990.  Sen. Cruz remains a strong favorite to win his first re-election, but the O’Rourke challenge means he will not have a free ride in 2018.

--Jim Ellis

​Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel has come back swinging in the latest ad to hit the airwaves in the Georgia 6th Congressional race.  Handel touts her successes as in political office and also pans her competitors ads.  With the looming jungle primary date it is looking like Handel is working to protect her lead over other GOP candidates and lock up one of the two run off spots.

​The Montana at-large special election was thought to be a rather quiet affair, with Republican businessman Greg Gianforte winning a comfortable victory on May 25th over folk singer Rob Quist.  While a Gianforte win may well be the final result, the campaign will be more competitive than many first thought.  The Democratic nominee is showing substantial fundraising prowess.  The musician candidate announced he has already raised $754,000 for the special election, meaning that he is guaranteed to run a significant campaign. 
 
Armed with endorsements from key Montana labor unions and liberal interest groups, Quist is taking conservative positions on the 2nd Amendment and tax reform, meaning that the race is becoming considerably more interesting.  Mr. Gianforte has not yet indicated how much he has raised for the coming special election, but spent over $5.5 million of his own money in his close November race for Governor.

--Jim Ellis

​Yesterday, we covered the Christopher Newport University poll that revealed primary numbers for candidates in the respective major parties.   The Virginia primary is scheduled for June 13th.
 
At the time, we speculated that general election results would soon be released, and we now see them coming into the public domain.  Because the polling sample contained a slight Democratic skew, which is a positive since the contest between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) is becoming a highly competitive political contest and more information was needed about that campaign, we thus expected the general election would give the Democrats an advantage.  Not so.
 
According to the CNU numbers (3/16-26; 831 VA registered voters), former GOP national chairman Ed Gillespie has a 40-39% edge over Lt. Governor Northam, while drawing into a 39% tie with former Rep. Perriello.  It was expected, when looking at the polling sample composition, that both Democrats would hold a several point lead.

--Jim Ellis

​Yesterday, we covered the Christopher Newport University poll that revealed primary numbers for candidates in the respective major parties.   The Virginia primary is scheduled for June 13th.
 
At the time, we speculated that general election results would soon be released, and we now see them coming into the public domain.  Because the polling sample contained a slight Democratic skew, which is a positive since the contest between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) is becoming a highly competitive political contest and more information was needed about that campaign, we thus expected the general election would give the Democrats an advantage.  Not so.
 
According to the CNU numbers (3/16-26; 831 VA registered voters), former GOP national chairman Ed Gillespie has a 40-39% edge over Lt. Governor Northam, while drawing into a 39% tie with former Rep. Perriello.  It was expected, when looking at the polling sample composition, that both Democrats would hold a several point lead.

​Governor Bruce Rauner (R-IL) rolled out a pair of ads this week to promote his agenda and also lay the framework for his 2018 re-election.  While the ads make a point saying for too long Illinois politicians have too long patched the state's problems with "duct tape" solutions, it is tough to see whether Illinois voters won't lump Rauner in with that same crowd as the incumbent.  Rauner is facing a tough re-election in this heavily blue state that has faced a budget impasse and declining economic prospects.  Look to see this ad war to only escalate ad Democrats are sure to counter this ad buy with one of their own.

​The Houston Chronicle is confirming that El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke (D) will formally announce by Friday that he will challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) for re-election next year.   If successful, the three-term Representative will be the first El Paso native ever elected to a major Texas statewide office. 
 
The move had been speculated upon for several months, and more than likely pre-empts Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) from getting into the statewide race.  The latter had also been contemplating opposing Cruz, but did not seem as serious about running as O’Rourke.  Mr. Castro still says, however, that he is considering running and will decide “in several weeks.” 
 
Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the late Lloyd Bentsen was re-elected in 1988.  No Democrat has won a statewide office of any kind since 1990.  Sen. Cruz remains a strong favorite to win his first re-election, but the O’Rourke challenge means he will not have a free ride in 2018. 

​Former South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Chad Connelly went up with his own introductory television ad this week.  While the crowded GOP field heads into the May 2nd primary it is tough to tell whether Connelly can crack into the first tier of candidates over the next month.  This ad will go a long way to seeing if he can at least drive up name ID.