NE-2: Result Could Cause Tie
A new Siena College/New York Times survey of Nebraska’s 2nd District, from one of two states that splits its electoral votes (9/25-27; 420 NE-2 likely voters; live interview), sees former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 48-41%. Should this margin hold, Mr. Biden would gain an extra electoral vote from this red state.
Under the scenario where Mr. Biden converts Michigan and Pennsylvania back to his column and takes the 2nd District of Nebraska with the remainder of the 2016 map holding in place, the election would end in a 269-269 Electoral College tie. In such an instance, the vote would then proceed to the House of Representatives to break the deadlock.
Georgia: Coalescing Behind Warnock
Democratic endorsements, including from former President Jimmy Carter and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have been piling up for Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock in an effort to propel him into what appears to be a sure January run-off election from the November 3rd jungle primary. Now, polling suggests that the strategy is paying off as two new Georgia Senate polls find him leading the field.
The Civiqs polling organization, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (9/26-29; 959 GA likely voters; online) gives Rev. Warnock a 38-25-21% lead over Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) and appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), respectively. Businessman Matt Lieberman (D), who had been competitive in polling until now, drops to 5% support. While Warnock leads the race, he trails the combined Republican figure by eight percentage points.
Quinnipiac University (9/23-27; 1,125 GA likely voters; live interview) sees a similar candidate division. Their numbers find Rev. Warnock’s lead to be 31-23-22% over Sen. Loeffler and Rep. Collins with Mr. Lieberman polling a 9% preference.
South Carolina: Even More Money
While we haven’t seen a public financial disclosure here since June 30th as the Federal Election Commission books close on the third quarter today, it is clear the money war in South Carolina is out of control. At the end of June, both Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) and Democrat Jaime Harrison had raised in the $30 million range, with each gaining the benefit of about $2 million in independent expenditures either for their own candidacy or attacking their opponent.
The Super PAC Security is Strength had long ago reserved an additional $2.6 million in media time to help Sen. Graham, but now the Senate Majority PAC is committing a new $6.5 million to assist Mr. Harrison. Once the major parties report their expenditures, it will be clear that combined spending here will likely top $80 million in a state of just seven congressional districts. All polls since the beginning of August have shown the two candidates within three percentage points of each other.
AZ-6: Close Again
A new Public Policy Polling survey (9/22-23; 527 AZ-6 voters; interactive voice response) finds Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale), who was earlier found in violation of eleven different ethics charges, again in a close contest with physician Hiral Tipirneni (D). The PPP margin finds Rep. Schweikert’s lead at 45-43% in the formerly safe Republican congressional district. The numbers confirm two other published polls that produced similar results.
NE-2: Bacon Up With Trump Down
Above, we cited the new Siena College/New York Times NE-2 poll (9/25-27; 420 NE-2 likely voters; live interview) that gives Joe Biden a lead over President Trump beyond the polling margin of error. The same survey, however, finds Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) forging a small lead over his Democratic opponent, 2018 congressional nominee Kara Eastman, 45-43%.
NC-8: More Evidence
We now see a second brilliant corners Research & Strategies survey projecting a close race between four-term Rep. Richard Hudson (R-Concord) and former state Supreme Court Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D). The new survey, conducted for the Timmons-Goodson campaign (9/28; 614 NC-8 likely voters; internal flash poll), again gives Mr. Hudson a two-point lead, 44-42%. In late July, the campaign first released their internal data that found a very similar 43-41% split. Like all other districts in North Carolina, the state Supreme Court redrew the 8th District for this 2020 election.
Tonight marks the first presidential general election debate of the 2020 campaign. This is the first of the three-debate series and comes from Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland. The Vice Presidential forum, between Vice President Mike Pence and California Senator Kamala Harris, to be conducted in Salt Lake City, is scheduled for October 7th. The second presidential debate, which will feature a town hall format, hails from Miami on October 15th. The finale is pegged for a week later, on October 22nd, from Belmont University in Nashville, TN.
It appears the presidential race is not the only contest seeing diverse polling results produced during the same time period. Two new Michigan Senate surveys were released yesterday from the Trafalgar Group and Marist College.
The Marist data comes in the early part of the September 19-25 sampling period (9/19-23; 799 MI likely voters; live interview) and finds Sen. Gary Peters (D) leading challenger John James (R) by a five-point margin, 49-44%. Within the same period, Trafalgar, that attempts to quantify the “shy” right of center voter (9/23-25; 1,047 MI likely voters), finds the two candidates tied at 47% apiece. Once again, we see different methodologies producing disparate results.
North Carolina: Severe Contrast
Two more polls were released in the Tar Heel State Senate race from sampling groups conducted within the same relative time period, and this time the swing is nine percentage points between the YouGov and Meredith College polling entities. According to YouGov (9/22-25; 1,213 NC registered voters; online; weighted) former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) leads Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 48-38%, while Meredith (9/18-22; 705 NC registered voters; online) finds the margin between the two candidates only at one point, 43-42%.
The Carolina Senate race has swung wildly in the above described manner for months, but Mr. Cunningham has enjoyed the edge in almost all polls. A total of 20 research studies have been conducted of this North Carolina contest during the month of September alone.
MN-2: Craig Files
As predicted yesterday when Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan) sent a message to her supporters telling them to vote for her as usual in the regular general election, a lawsuit has now been filed to overturn the Secretary of State’s ruling that the 2nd Congressional District general election be postponed to February 9th. Under Minnesota election law, if a major party candidate dies within 79 days of a general election, the vote is postponed for that particular race for a period of three months, in this case to February 9th.
In this year’s 2nd District election, Legal Marijuana Party candidate Adam Weeks passed away suddenly last week. Under Minnesota election law, this entity rather surprisingly constitutes a major party; hence, the election postponement. Ms. Craig will undoubtedly argue this state statute conflicts with the federal election law that requires all states hold their federal office elections on the same day. Therefore, exactly when this election will be held remains unclear.
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