Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling went into the Arizona Republican field at the beginning of this week to test the GOP battle for the party’s Senate nomination. The survey (6/28; 595 AZ likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) finds venture capitalist Blake Masters, who former President Donald Trump endorses, opening up a significant 29-15-10% advantage over Attorney General Mark Brnovich and businessman Jim Lamon. This is the first time since the early campaign days when we’ve seen a poll featuring any one of the three candidates holding a significant edge.
When asked if the Trump endorsement would make voters more or less likely to vote for Mr. Masters, 53% of the respondent sample said much more likely (31%) or somewhat more likely (22%), while those saying they would be less inclined to support Masters because of the endorsement reached only 20%.
State Senator Annette Taddeo (D-Miami) until quite recently was in the Governor’s race challenging Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) for the Democratic nomination, even though he chose her as his Lt. Governor running mate in 2014. Now a congressional candidate, Ms. Taddeo’s campaign released a SEA Polling & Strategic Design survey that shows her trailing Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) by just two percentage points, 47-45%.
This poll should be discounted. It was conducted well over a month ago, during the May 23-25 period, which is before Ms. Taddeo even left the Governor’s race. Therefore, too much has changed for this survey to be taken seriously.
It appears Republicans are uniting to make a serious run at converting Rhode Island’s open 2nd Congressional District. Former state Rep. Bob Lancia (R) decided not to enter the race at the filing deadline. Trailing badly in the polls to former Cranston Mayor and two-time Republican gubernatorial nominee Allan Fung, Mr. Lancia ended his campaign to allow the former man to run unopposed for the party nomination. A published Suffolk University poll (6/19-22; 423 RI likely general election voters; live interview) finds Mr. Fung individually leading all six top Democratic candidates, including perceived leader Seth Magaziner, the Rhode Island General Treasurer.
The 2nd District covers most of the small state’s western region including a portion of Providence County where more than half of Rhode Island’s population resides. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 2nd as D+17 and Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the “partisan lean” as 56.9% D to just 41% R. Though a long shot, it appears this district is on the GOP conversion target list. Veteran US Rep. Jim Langevin (D-Warwick) is retiring after serving what will be eleven terms at the end of the current Congress.
When US Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Bowie) announced for the open state Attorney General position, he looked difficult to beat. A new poll, however, shows him dropping into a dead heat with retired state judge Katie Curran O’Malley, the wife of former Gov. Martin O’Malley (D).
The Goucher College poll conducted for the Baltimore Banner news site (6/15-19; 501 MD Democratic registered voters; 403 MD likely Democratic primary voters) finds Ms. O’Malley now edging ahead of Rep. Brown with a 30-29% margin. The O’Malley campaign is running ads crediting Rep. Brown with being an able Congressman, but saying he does not have the legal experience to be an effective Attorney General. The delayed Maryland primary is July 19th.
As expected, University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl captured the Republican gubernatorial nomination with a 53% majority over GOP nominating convention winner Greg Lopez. In the Senate contest, as most predicted, construction company owner Joe O’Dea defeated state Rep. Ron Hanks (R-Penrose) with just under 55% of the vote. Like Mr. Lopez, Rep. Hanks also won the Republican nominating convention endorsement.
The two will advance to the general election against Gov. Jared Polis (D) and Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Neither incumbent was opposed for re-nomination and both are now heavy favorites to win re-election in November.
The big news from last night’s primary election surrounded the two paired districts. In the Chicago suburbs, Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove), who unexpectedly lost his 17-year old daughter just two weeks ago, scored a landslide win over fellow Rep. Marie Newman (D-La Grange) in the new 6th District that contained more of the latter member’s current turf.
In the downstate Republican 15th CD, freshman Rep. Mary Miller (R-Oakland), armed with an endorsement and rally appearance from former President Donald Trump, recorded a decisive 57-43% over veteran Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville). The latter man will now see his congressional career draw to a close after serving what will be ten years in the House.
The Democratic pairing occurred in order to create a new Chicago anchored Hispanic district. State Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago) easily won the Democratic nomination in this seat, and becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election. State Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Louisville) won an outright majority with 57% of the vote opposite five opponents in the Governor’s primary. He advances to the general election to oppose incumbent J. B. Pritzker (D). Conservative activist Kathy Salvi won the Republican Senate nomination, and now faces a likely insurmountable opponent in Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D).
As predicted, despite a scare in the primary election, 3rd District Rep. Michael Guest (R-Brandon) easily won re-nomination last night in the Mississippi congressional runoff election. He topped challenger Michael Cassidy with two-thirds of more than 70,000 votes that were cast in last night’s election. Rep. Guest will now have an easy run in the general election.
Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-Biloxi) was not so fortunate in his southern Mississippi 4th CD. He failed to overcome Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell and lost his seat in a 54-46% count. Mr. Palazzo becomes the eighth House incumbent to be denied re-nomination and the fourth who lost to a challenger that was not a fellow incumbent forced into a paired district. Sheriff Ezell is now the heavy favorite to win the seat in November.
Another special congressional election was held last night, and this result ended in a closer final tally than originally expected. State Sen. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk), a media company owner, claimed the seat with a 53-47% victory over fellow state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks (D-Lincoln) in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+17.
Mr. Flood will be sworn into the House upon official election certification. He will replace convicted Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln). Rep-Elect Flood and Sen. Pansing Brooks will see each other again. Both are the party nominees for the regular general election in November.
The New York statewide contests also ended as expected. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), who ascended from the Lt. Governor’s position when Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, easily defeated NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), 68-19-13%. Mr. Williams was unopposed for the Working Families ballot line, so he will advance into the general election despite his loss last night.
The Republican battle was a bit closer. US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley; East Long Island) topped Andrew Giuliani, son of ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, in a 44-23% split. Former Westchester County Executive and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson recorded 18 and 15%, respectively. Gov. Hochul begins the general election as the decided favorite.
As polling correctly predicted, Oklahoma US Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) built a major advantage in the special US Senate GOP primary and claimed first position with 44% of the vote, but it was not enough to win the party nomination. Former state House Speaker T. W. Shannon (R) is well behind, but his 18% is enough to capture second place and advance to the August 23rd runoff election opposite Rep. Mullin. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in the general election over former US Rep. Kendra Horn (D).
Both Sen. James Lankford and Gov. Kevin Stitt easily won re-nomination and have ostensibly been re-elected to new terms.
In Rep. Mullin’s open eastern Oklahoma 2nd District a total of 14 Republicans were on the ballot and the top five candidates all finished within a four percentage point range. State Rep. Avery Frix (R-Muskogee) is the first place finisher and he clinched a runoff position for the August 23rd secondary election. It appears that former state Sen. John Brecheen will edge Muskogee Police Chief Johnny Teehee for the second qualifying position. The eventual Republican nominee will take the seat in the Autumn.
The Rundown Blog
Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.