According to an Axios news report, venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance (R) is telling associates that he will enter the open US Senate race at an undetermined time. The move had been expected. Mr. Vance came to fame in authoring the best-selling book Hillbilly Elegy, which, as described on the cover is “A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis.”
Already in the Senate Republican primary are former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and ex-Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken. Reps. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus), Mike Turner (R-Dayton), Bill Johnson (R-Marietta), David Joyce (R-Russell Township), and ex-Representative and 2018 US Senate nominee Jim Renacci are all potential Senate candidates. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) is the most likely Democratic nominee.
Harford County Executive Barry Glassman (R), who had been considering running for Governor or challenging US Rep. Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville) in the 2022 Republican primary, yesterday announced instead that he will run for State Comptroller. Incumbent Peter Franchot (D) is already declared gubernatorial candidate, so the Comptroller’s post will be an open race.
While no Republican has yet declared against Rep. Harris, four Democrats including 2014 gubernatorial candidate Heather Mizeur have said they will enter their congressional primary. Rep. Harris is the lone Republican in the Maryland congressional delegation and redistricting could make the 1st CD much less hospitable for him in 2022.
With Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford (R) announcing yesterday that he will not enter the open 2022 Maryland Governor’s race, state Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz (R), hoping to capture the party’s Larry Hogan faction, announced that she will run for the state’s top job.
The twice elected Gov. Hogan is ineligible to seek a third term. Former Republican National Committee chairman and ex-Lt. Gov. Michael Steele confirms that he, too, is considering running. Democrats, however, are big favorites to convert this position in one of their strongest political states.
Public Policy Polling surveyed the Virginia Democratic electorate in anticipation of the June 8th statewide party primary. The survey (4/12-13; 526 VA likely Democratic primary voters; interactive voice response system), to no one’s surprise, finds former Gov. Terry McAuliffe holding a wide lead over the other gubernatorial contenders. According to the PPP results, McAuliffe leads state Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond), former state Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, and state Delegate Lee Carter (D-Manassas), 42-8-8-7-4%, respectively.
The former Virginia chief executive and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman is the prohibitive favorite for the party nomination and will begin the general election with a large polling lead over whomever the Republicans nominate in their May 8th hybrid convention process.
As predicted earlier in the week, former Gov. Pat McCrory (R), who lost his bid for re-election by less than a percentage point in 2016, officially entered the open US Senate race. In the GOP primary is ex-US Rep. Mark Walker. Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) is expected to become a candidate. State Sen. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte), ex-state Senator and 2020 Senate candidate Erica Smith, and Beaufort Mayor Rett Newton are the announced Democrats. Others will soon join the fray. Sen. Richard Burr (R) is not seeking a fourth term in office.
State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski (D), originally elected in 2018, yesterday declared her intention to run for the US Senate next year. She joins two other credible Democrats in the primary, Milwaukee Bucks basketball organization executive Alex Lasry, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson in the early forming field of candidates. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) has yet to announce his political intentions for 2022. He is a retirement possibility because he originally pledged to serve two terms when he first ran in 2010.
Attorney Tiffany Shedd, the 2020 Republican congressional nominee who held Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) to just over a three-point victory, will not run for Congress next year. Yesterday, Ms. Shedd announced that she will enter the open Attorney General’s contest in 2022. Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R), a potential candidate for either Governor or Senator, is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position. Ms. Shedd is the first person from either party to announce a candidacy for the open AG position.
Freshman California Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra/Fullerton) and ex-Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) had run against each other twice with both winning one time. It appears that President Biden has decided there won’t be a re-match, at least in 2022. Yesterday, the President announced that he has appointed Mr. Cisneros as Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness. Redistricting will change the district and it is a certainty that Rep. Kim will face a highly competitive Democratic opponent next year, but that individual will now likely be someone other than Mr. Cisneros.
Democrat Dana Balter, the Upstate New York college professor who twice challenged Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse), said yesterday that she will not return for another re-match in 2022. Ms. Balter raised a total of $6 million for her two congressional runs and was a competitive challenger but lost by six points in the strong Democratic year of 2018, and then saw Rep. Katko’s victory margin increase to ten points last year. Redistricting will likely significantly change the 24th CD, but the anchor city of Syracuse will likely remain wholly intact and part of the new district configuration.
House Ways and Means Committee ranking Republican Kevin Brady (R-TX) announced that he will not seek a 14th term in the House, thus opening what should remain a safe Republican post-redistricting seat. Mr. Brady was first elected to Congress in 1996 after spending three terms in the Texas House of Representatives. He averaged 81.6% of the vote over his twelve federal re-election campaigns.
Mr. Brady is the fifth Republican and second Texan to announce that he will not seek re-election in 2022. Three of the five GOP members, Reps. Mo Brooks (R-AL), Jody Hice (R-GA), and Lee Zeldin (R-NY) are running for other offices. Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela (D-Brownsville) is the other Texas delegation member who will retire at the end of the current Congress.
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