Former President Donald Trump over the weekend made public his endorsement of Republican Kelly Tshibaka, the former Alaska Administration Commissioner. Ms. Tshibaka already leads Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) in the two most recent 2022 primary surveys with significant percentage margins. Mr. Trump has been sparring with Sen. Murkowski since he left office and again noted that she voted to impeach him over the January 6th Capitol insurrection. His statement says Sen. Murkowski is “bad for Alaska.”
This race has a long time to develop since the Alaska primary isn’t until August of 2022. With the state’s new top four jungle primary procedure, there is little doubt that both Ms. Tshibaka and Sen. Murkowski will advance into the general election. Therefore, we can expect the Alaska race to be on the front burner of political discussion all the way through the November 2nd general election.
With former US Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) likely headed for the US Senate race freshman Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion) won’t face her in a re-match, but state Sen. Liz Mathis (D-Hiawatha) confirms that she is considering running for the US House and will make her intentions known in late July.
Ms. Hinson, a former news anchor in the Cedar Rapids media market, defeated then-Rep. Finkenauer, 50-47%. Ms. Mathis is a three-term state Senator and, like Rep. Hinson, is also a former news anchor in the Cedar Rapids market. Both women now hail from the Cedar Rapids suburbs, the 1st District’s largest population anchor.
First-term Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) drew her second Republican challenger last week. New Mexico retired National Guard general and investment advisor and commentator Greg Zanetti, who has twice run for statewide office, declared his gubernatorial candidacy. He joins Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block in the GOP primary field.
While Gov. Grisham is the heavy favorite for re-election opposite the current candidate field, other potential contenders such as former Congressman and current New Mexico Republican Party chairman Steve Pearce and Albuquerque television weatherman and 2020 US Senate candidate Mark Ronchetti remain as possible candidates.
Tomorrow, New York City Democrats go to the polls to nominate a mayoral candidate who will succeed term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) in a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans by almost a 7:1 ratio.
The primary will be a major test for the ranked choice voting system that will be utilized to determine a majority winner from the 13 candidates whose names will appear on the Democratic ballot. The large number means we could theoretically see a dozen rounds of counting after the ballots are cast.
The leading candidates appear to be Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, former NYC Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, civil rights activist and attorney Maya Wiley, and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang. Polling models indicate that one of these four will very likely be the primary winner. Other top contenders are former Director of the US Office of Management and Budget Shaun Donovan, Citigroup executive Raymond McGuire, and city Comptroller Scott Stringer.
It appears that former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R) is getting ready to enter the US Senate contest against freshman incumbent Raphael Warnock (D). Mr. Walker remained a Texas resident after staying in the Lone Star State once his professional football career concluded with the Dallas Cowboys. He released a video depicting him standing next to his car as the camera zeroes in on its Georgia license plate, suggesting that he is in the process of moving back to his home state.
Currently in the GOP race are state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, construction company owner Kelvin King, and financial executive and ex-Trump White House aide Latham Saddler.
Early in the week, GOP congressional candidate Anna Paulina Luna, who held Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) to a 53-47% re-election victory in November and has declared her 2022 candidacy for the open seat race, raised eyebrows by going to court requesting a restraining order against her former and future Republican congressional opponent, saying that Will Braddock had threatened to kill her. She also claimed that former opponents Amanda Makki and Matt Tito were also involved.
While there is no evidence to indicate the latter two had any role, the Politico news site has produced a tape of Braddock not only indicating that he would take Ms. Luna’s life, but that he would fund his campaign with European contributions. It appears the 2022 13th District open seat campaign will be even more raucous than in past election cycles.
While the prevailing political wisdom predicts that former state Senator and national Bernie Sanders campaign spokesperson Nina Turner (D) will win both the Democratic special election primary for the vacant Cleveland-Akron anchored congressional district and the special general, one of her many Democratic opponents is becoming a formidable foe.
Cuyahoga County Commissioner and County Democratic Party chair Shontel Brown just unveiled a Hillary Clinton endorsement and launched a major media splash. She is emphasizing her work to deliver jobs and services for the community talks about strengthening small businesses and says she will work with President Biden to bring additional services to the district. In another ad, she contrasts her support for Biden with Ms. Turner’s opposition to him during the Democratic nomination contest.
Ms. Turner will definitely head toward the “Squad” faction in the House, while Ms. Brown is attempting an appeal to the mainstream. This race, with a virtually contest-deciding Democratic primary on August 3rd – the 11th is solidly Democratic – won’t be filled until after the special general election on November 2nd. The seat is vacant because former Rep. Marcia Fudge (D) resigned to become Housing & Urban Development secretary in the Biden Administration.
Days after two-term Pennsylvania Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Devon) announced that she would forego a US Senate run in order to seek re-election to the House, neighboring Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Jenkintown) has followed suit. Rep. Dean this week made known her decision not to enter the Senate race but will seek a third term in the House next year.
The leading Democratic open seat announced candidates are Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia), and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh. Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) and state Sen. Sharif Street (D-Philadelphia) are possible candidates.
Former Arizona Congressman Matt Salmon, who was the 2002 Republican gubernatorial nominee, announced that he will enter the 2022 open Governor’s race a full 20 years after he first ran for the position. Mr. Salmon lost a close plurality gubernatorial election to then-Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano (D) by less than one percentage point. He served five non-consecutive terms in the US House and a pair of two-year terms in the Arizona Senate.
Already in the open Republican primary are state Treasurer Kimberly Yee, State University System Regent Karrin Taylor Robinson, and former television news anchor Kari Lake. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Yesterday, we covered the Marist College media poll of the New York City open Democratic mayoral primary (6/3-9; 876 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) that projected Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams eventually leading the group of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio (D).
Two more polls are reporting slightly differing results. The Public Opinion Strategies (POS) survey (6/9-13; 500 NYC potential Democratic primary voters; live interview) returns numbers that are similarly close to Marist’s. With the large field and the tight spread among the candidates, we can expect perhaps more than ten rounds of counting in the ranked-choice system that is being used for this election.
The POS survey agrees that former NYC Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, civil rights activist Maya Wiley and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang together with Mr. Adams form the top tier of contenders. At the end of the laborious ranked-choice process, POS, like Marist, finds the race evolving into a two-way battle between Mr. Adams and Ms. Garcia that tilts toward the former.
Change Research (6/11-14; 822 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; online) also found a compatible result in their most recent poll, though they project a different winner at the end of the ranked-choice process. Change sees Ms. Garcia edging Mr. Adams in an 11th counting round by a scant 51-49% split.
The closeness of these three polls suggests a wild finish in the campaign’s final days with the four top candidates closely bunched. How voters use the ranked-choice system and whom they select as their latter choices could make the ultimate difference. Election day is June 22nd.
The Rundown Blog
Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.