The Spry Strategies research firm released a survey of the likely 2022 Republican electorate for the open US Senate race (4/21-24; 700 NC likely Republican primary voters and Independents who say they would vote in the Republican primary; combination live interview and online sampling) and the results project former Gov. Pat McCrory to be holding a large advantage.
According to the Spry numbers, Mr. McCrory would lead former Rep. Mark Walker and current US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance), who just announced his candidacy last week, 40-11-5%, respectively. The NC Senate race promises to be a premier national midterm campaign. Sen. Richard Burr (R) is not seeking a fourth term.
Five-term Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Moline), fresh from her closest re-election victory – a 52-48% win over Republican Esther Joy King –
announced on Friday that she will not seek re-election next year. Ms. Bustos was the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair for the 2020 cycle.
Her absence in the next cycle from a state that is losing a congressional district means her politically marginal western Illinois district (Trump ’20: 50-48%) that stretches throughout the Iowa border region and is anchored in the area known as the Quad Cities, could drastically change in the next redistricting.
For her part, Ms. King immediately declared her candidacy for the open seat election. The Bustos retirement coupled with Rep. Charlie Crist’s (D-FL) expected gubernatorial announcement next week would create 16 open or vacant US House seats, eight from each party.
As the open June 22nd New York City Democratic Mayoral primary draws nearer, the Benenson Strategy Group surveyed the City’s Democratic electorate for the Students First NY organization. The poll (4/16-21; 1,558 likely NYC likely Democratic primary voters; method not disclosed) finds former presidential candidate Andrew Yang leading Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams and NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, 22-17-11%, with all other candidates not exceeding 8 percent support.
The poll also attempted to survey the ranked choice voting system that will be used in this primary election. After seven hypothetical rounds, Mr. Yang is projected to ultimately defeat Mr. Adams, 56-44%.
The GOP scored a coup in Texas on Saturday night, as Susan Wright (R), widow of the late Congressman Ron Wright (R-Arlington), and state Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie) advanced into a yet-to-be-scheduled runoff election. Under Texas state law, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) can only call the runoff after the final canvass makes the result official.
Mr. Wright captured just over 19% of the vote and carried the Tarrant County portion of the district, something her husband was unable to accomplish in his two congressional runs. Rep. Ellzey finished second with 13.9% of the vote, just 354 tallies ahead of the leading Democratic candidate, 2018 congressional nominee Jana Lynne Sanchez (D). Virtually all special election polling suggested that she and Ms. Wright would be the runoff participants.
Florida state Rep. Omari Hardy (D-West Palm Beach) announced that he will enter the special Democratic primary to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Delray Beach). Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has yet to schedule the replacement election, but that has not stopped now eleven Democrats from announcing their candidacies. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to election in this congressional district that occupies most of the territory between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami with a segment stretching into Palm Beach County.
Less than a week since the Census Bureau made official that Montana would gain a second congressional seat, former Interior Secretary and ex-US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) filed a 2022 Federal Election Commission committee for the state’s new CD. Since the new congressional map will likely divide the state into a western and eastern district, the way Montana used to look before the second district was lost in the 1990 census, it is clear that freshman at-large Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run in the eastern seat since his hometown lies so close to the North Dakota border. This means we will see a new open western district that will likely be the more Democratic of the two.
Ryan Zinke was elected to the House in 2014 and re-elected in 2016. Shortly after Donald Trump won the presidential election, he selected Rep. Zinke as his Interior Secretary. Mr. Zinke returned to Montana after serving two years in the Trump cabinet.
Yesterday, state Sen. Randolph Bracy (D-Orlando) said he will challenge Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) next year unless US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) decides to run. If she does, Sen. Bracy continued, he would enter the open seat race for her congressional district. Both state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) and US Representative and former Governor Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) are testing the waters for their own gubernatorial campaign. Gov. DeSantis is expected to seek a second term.
In an unusual move, and particularly so since the legislature is scheduled to adjourn this week, the state Senate Democratic conference voted unanimously to sack Minority Leader Gary Farmer (D-Ft. Lauderdale) and replace him with state Senator Lauren Book (D-Plantation), who also represents part of Broward County.
Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr (R), who had been considered a potential US Senate candidate to oppose incumbent Raphael Warnock (D), announced yesterday that he will run for re-election to his current position. With ex-Rep. Doug Collins (R) also declining to run, the political stage is seemingly set for Georgia football legend Herschel Walker (R) to return to the state and become a Senatorial candidate. Should Mr. Walker decline, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) has indicated a desire to run.
Three-term western North Carolina Congressman Ted Budd (R-Advance) joined the growing number of open seat US Senate candidates yesterday as he declared his intention to enter the statewide contest. He will face at least former Gov. Pat McCrory and ex-US Rep. Mark Walker in the GOP primary.
North Carolina has a runoff law but it is only triggered if no contender receives at least 30% of the vote. With candidates of this caliber already in the race, it is highly probable that the nominee will claim an outright victory in the first election. Democrats also have a crowded field in which former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley and state Sen. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) lead. Sen. Richard Burr (R) is not seeking a fourth term.
The Rundown Blog
Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.