Former Congressman and ex-Mayor Dennis Kucinich (D) failed in his comeback to reclaim the job in which he was first elected in 1977 last night as he recorded 17% in the 2021 Cleveland mayoral primary. Non-profit organization director Justin Bibb (D) finished first and will face City Council President Kevin Kelley (D) in the November 2nd runoff election. The unofficial returns find Mr. Kucinich finishing just two percentage points behind Mr. Kelley, but is eliminated from further competition.
The Remington Research Group released their latest Missouri Senate Republican primary polling results, and for the first time, Attorney General Eric Schmitt has crept into the lead. According to the survey (9/8-9; 800 MO likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system), Mr. Schmitt holds a slight 28-27-17-8-5% advantage over former Gov. Eric Greitens, US Reps. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) and Billy Long (R-Springfield), with St. Louis attorney Mark McCloskey trailing the pack.
This is the first publicly released poll with Rep. Long as an official candidate. He and Rep. Hartzler appear to be taking right of center votes away from Mr. Greitens, as predicted.
Brunswick County Commissioner Marty Cooke has ended his 2022 Senate bid and threw his support behind US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance). Though the Republican field remains large with eleven announced candidates, the most serious contenders are Rep. Budd, who carries former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, former Gov. Pat McCrory, and ex-US Rep. Mark Walker.
The Democrats feature ten announced candidates, but that contest looks to be a battle between former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley and state Sen. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). Sen. Richard Burr (R) is not seeking a fourth term.
Physician and retired Navy surgeon Kermit Jones (D) announced his candidacy against Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in the district that stretches from Sacramento all the way to Yosemite. Rep. McClintock has faced serious challenges in the last two elections, but won with an average of 55% after facing a combined $6.7 million in the last two campaigns. Assuming redistricting doesn’t change this seat in a major way, Rep. McClintock will again be favored for re-election.
Though thousands of California voters have already cast their recall ballot, today is the official election day in the Golden State. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is standing for a recall election after more than 2.2 million people submitted petition signatures to force a pre-election confirmation vote. Late polling has turned in the Governor’s favor. The latest Emerson College poll, released yesterday, (9/10-11; 1,000 CA likely voters; live interview, text, and online) finds Mr. Newsom winning the recall election (meaning the No vote on the recall question) in a 60-40% spread.
Virtually all polling also shows, as does Emerson, that conservative commentator Larry Elder continues to lead the replacement vote. In the survey, he tops Democratic realtor Kevin Paffrath and ice skating coach John Drake (D) who both pull 6% support. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R) then trails with 4%. A total of 46 candidates are on the ballot. If the No position wins on the recall question as expected, all of the replacement candidate votes become moot.
Former US Attorney Bill McSwain joined the Republican field in the open Pennsylvania Governor’s yesterday, becoming the tenth contender to do so. Mr. McSwain was a Trump appointee to his US Attorney’s position, and found himself in a feud with former Attorney General Bill Barr after the election regarding the Pennsylvania voter fraud issue. Among those announced GOP candidates are former US Representative and 2018 US Senate nominee Lou Barletta, state Senators Dan Laughlin (R-Erie) and Scott Martin (R-Strasburg), and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale.
The Democrats have no announced candidates in an open race for a position they currently control in the person of term-limited Gov. Tom Wolf (D). This is because the party has virtually cleared the field for Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D), who is soon expected to enter the race. Democrats appear to have an edge in the general election, but the Republicans will have a competitive nominee.
At the end of last week, former Republican National Committeewoman and ex-gubernatorial candidate Harriet Hageman announced her congressional candidacy and immediately drew former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. With nine Republican opponents challenging at-large Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson), the ballot set-up favors the embattled incumbent since her adversarial vote would be split many different ways.
Understanding this, two of the candidates, US Air Force veteran Bryan Miller and attorney Darin Smith, announced they are both withdrawing. Several of the others pledged to continue. With seven remaining opponents, the odds still favor Rep. Cheney being able to win an open August 16th primary with only plurality support.
A total of seven California Governor’s recall election polls have been released in anticipation of tomorrow’s vote, and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appears headed to a strong retain result. The seven pollsters, Data for Progress, the University of California at Berkeley, Survey USA, Suffolk University, YouGov, Gravis Marketing, and the Trafalgar Group, individually tested the electorate between August 25th and September 10th and find Newsom’s retain margin (meaning a No vote on the recall question) spanning between five and 17 percentage points. Regardless of the recall outcome, the 2022 Governor’s election will proceed in accordance with the regular election calendar.
Survey USA recently tested the Maine electorate (8/24-31; 1,425 ME adults; 1,242 ME registered voters; 501 ME Democratic primary voters; live interview and online panel) and found Gov. Janet Mills (D) in a somewhat vulnerable position as she prepares to run for a second term. Against former Gov. Paul LePage (R), who has returned to the state after moving to Florida and is reportedly planning to run though he has made no formal announcement, Gov. Mills records only a 46-41% advantage.
After the pollsters asked voters push questions measuring support or opposition to ten different measures that state Senate President Troy Jackson (D-Allagash) strongly backed and Gov. Mills vetoed, a second ballot test was asked. After asking the push questions to Democratic primary voters, Sen. Jackson would lead Gov. Mills 44-34% in a hypothetical vote. Prior to the push questions being asked, Gov. Mills held a 56-23% Democratic primary lead over Sen. Jackson. The push questions also helped Mr. LePage top Gov. Mills in their second ballot test, 44-42%. Sen. Jackson, post push questions, would open a large lead against ex-Gov. LePage, 51-35%, in a hypothetical general election pairing.
The Survey USA pollsters were careful, however, in mentioning that the push questions contained no negative information about Sen. Jackson, meaning that these results are not an objective projection over election outcomes for June and November of next year.
Boston-based Emerson College released a late race poll (9/6-8; 600 Boston likely voters; interactive voice response system and through an online panel) for tomorrow’s primary election and confirms the pattern we have seen developing in this campaign. That is, City Councilor at-large Michelle Wu posting a strong lead with three others in a close contest for the second runoff position. Ms. Wu recorded 36% of the preference vote when the undecided voters were pushed for a response. City Councilor Annissa Essaibi-George is in second position at 18%, with fellow City Councilor Andrea Campbell in a statistical tie at 17%. Acting Mayor Kim Janey closely trails with 16%.
Since it is unlikely any of the candidates will secure majority support, the top two will advance to the November 2nd runoff election. Ms. Wu is virtually assured of finishing first, but the second position is clearly up for grabs. The office is open because former Mayor Marty Walsh resigned earlier in the year to become US Secretary of Labor.
The Rundown Blog
Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.