Gallup:  GOP Leads in Party ID; First Time Since 1991:  The Gallup research organization, as part of their Gallup Poll Social Services series (throughout 2022; 12 surveys; 10,000 live interviews; US Adults) concluded last week that 45% of their respondent universe identified as Republican or Republican leaning as opposed to 44% who align themselves with the Democrats.  In the initial questions, the Independent classification led with 41% preference, with the two major parties tied at 28% apiece.  The Independents were then questioned as to which party they more closely identified. 

Though this is the first time in more than three decades that cumulative Republicans topped cumulative Democrats, the two entities were tied during both the 2003 and 2011 Gallup partisan identification report.  The Democrats’ biggest advantage came immediately after President Barak Obama’s initial election when their cumulative total rose to 52%, while the Republicans sunk to 40%.
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Arizona:  Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) to Announce for Senate Today:  Taking quick advantage of Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) not pursuing a US Senate run next year, fellow Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), a long-presumed 2024 Senate candidate, will reportedly officially declare his candidacy later today.  At this point, he must be considered the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination and his moving so quickly after Rep. Stanton’s announcement is intended to lock down the nomination way in advance of candidate filing.

The general election will be tough in that Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is likely to be in the field and certainly whittles away some Democratic support.  While her prospects of winning a Democratic primary, against Rep. Gallego or anyone else, appear poor, her victory path is more reasonable in a three-way general election.  As has been the case in the last three elections, the Arizona Senate race will again become a key national campaign.

Virginia:  Sen. Tim Kaine (D) Announces for Re-Election:  Though some speculation was beginning to percolate that Democratic Senator and 2016 Vice Presidential nominee Tim Kaine would retire, on Friday he announced that he will seek a third term.  At this point, he becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the 2024 general election in a state that is moving into the reliable Democratic category even after the Republican success in the 2021 odd-year elections. 

The budding Republican candidate field is not impressive so far, but retired Navy Captain Hung Cao, who scored 47% against Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) in a 10th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8 and Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 55.2D-42.99R, is apparently considering a Senate challenge.  Mr. Cao would provide Republicans with a credible and interesting candidate, but with the state continuing to move toward the Democrats, which is accentuated in a presidential year, means Sen. Kaine is in a strong political position as he begins his quest for a third term.
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Kentucky:  AG Cameron Opens with Lead:  A Meeting Street Kentucky statewide poll (1/9-11; 500 KY likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) gives Attorney General Daniel Cameron a strong opening advantage for the party nomination in the May primary election.  In a field of a dozen candidates vying for the opportunity of challenging Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in November, AG Cameron is staked to an early 39-8-8% lead over state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles and former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft. 

Mr. Cameron is clearly the most well known and positively viewed of the GOP candidates.  His favorable recognition and positive image among the Republican voter sample was 62% as compared to Mr. Quarles’ 28% and Ms. Craft’s 22%.  In 2019, Mr. Cameron was elected Attorney General with a 58-42% victory margin.
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Chicago:  Mayor Lightfoot’s Downward Re-Election Trends Continue:  Two new polls continue to show Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) in an underdog position for re-election in likely the nation’s most important 2023 mayoral election. 

The surveys, from M3 Strategies (12/11-13; 440 Chicago likely voters; SMS text to web) and a more recent study from Lester & Associates for the Sophie King campaign (1/9-14; 600 Chicago likely voters; live interview), find Mayor Lightfoot trailing in the February 28th non-partisan primary election.  There is also a fair chance that she will fail to even qualify for the April 4th runoff, a secondary election which appears inevitable since no one is close to obtaining majority support.

Both polls find US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) claiming first place.  The M3 poll showed Lightfoot dropping to third position behind former Chicago budget director Paul Vallas, while Lester & Associates sees the incumbent Mayor holding the second slot.  The M3 poll found Ms. Lightfoot saddled with a terrible 25:74% favorable to unfavorable ratio.  This latter statistic might be most indicative in suggesting that she will fail to win re-election.
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AZ-4:  Business Owner Kelly Cooper (R) to Return:  Local Phoenix area restaurant owner Kelly Cooper (R), who lost in November to Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix), 56-44% from a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates only as D+1, said yesterday that he will run again in 2024.  With Congressman Stanton eschewing a US Senate run, the chances are good that we will see a re-match congressional race here next year.  In 2022, Mr. Cooper upset GOP establishment favorite Tanya Wheeless in the Republican primary with a 28-25% win within a field of five contenders.

CA-30:  Field to Replace Schiff Again Grows:  Though California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) has yet to announce that he is running for the Senate, it is becoming a foregone conclusion that he will officially declare his candidacy when Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) publicly confirms her retirement.  We now see a fourth Democratic candidate coming forward to run in what they believe will be an open 2024 congressional race. 

Yesterday, actor Ben Savage (D), brother of actor Fred Savage, who has appeared in film and television in roles from 1989 to the present, made public his intention to enter the 30th District congressional field.  Already in the race are Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank), Los Angeles Unified School District board member Nick Melvoin, and businessman John Bocanegra.  CA-30 is a safely Democratic seat that will likely advance two Democrats from the top-two jungle primary format.

IN-3:  First Open Seat Potential Candidate Emerges:  Responding to four-term northern Indiana Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) announcing for the open Senate race, the first major potential US House candidate has filed an exploratory committee.  State Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington) confirmed that he is testing the waters for a congressional run but has not made any final decision about entering the open contest.  A crowded Republican field is expected in a seat where the GOP nominee will have a major advantage in the general election.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates IN-3 as R+34.

Puerto Rico:  Resident Commissioner Draws Challenger:  There are several unique points in Puerto Rico politics associated with sending one non-voting Delegate to the US House of Representatives.  First, the position in Puerto Rico is designated as “Resident Commissioner,” second, the term is four years instead of two, and third, the political parties are different. 

The current Resident Commissioner, Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon, is a member of the New Progressive Party (PNP), which is closely associated with the Republican Party.  Yesterday, she received a challenge for the 2024 election from attorney and former gubernatorial aide Pablo Jose Hernandez Rivera of the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), which is closely aligned with the mainland Democratic Party.  
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Mississippi:  Gov. Reeves’ Tight Lead:  A Siena College poll conducted for the Mississippi Today organization (1/8-12; 821 MS registered voters; live interview) finds first-term Governor Tate Reeves (R) holding only a four-point, 43-39%, edge over newly announced Democratic candidate Brandon Presley, a cousin to the late music legend Elvis Presley, as the February 1st candidate filing deadline fast approaches.  The statewide primary is scheduled for August 8th, with a runoff on August 29th for those races where no candidate receives majority support on the initial vote.
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Gov. Reeves polled close in the 2019 election, but in the end won a 52-47% victory over four-term Attorney General Jim Hood (D).  While his job approval rating, according to the Siena poll, is 48:45% positive to negative, his personal rating is an upside down 40:48%.  It is unusual to see a personal rating register more negative than a job approval score.

​Arizona:  Kari Lake (R) Considering Senate:  Media reports from Arizona suggest that defeated gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, a former multi-decade Phoenix news anchor, is considering entering the 2024 US Senate contest.  This campaign will be unique since it features the incumbent, Kyrsten Sinema, originally elected as a Democrat running as an Independent. 
Democrats could be headed for a tough primary battle between Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix).  The latter man also served six years as Phoenix’s mayor before being elected to the House.  Other potential Republican candidates include Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.  This race will prove interesting since both eventual major party nominees and Sen. Sinema all would have legitimate victory scenarios in a tight three-way general election campaign.

​CA-47:  State Senator Declares for Porter’s Seat:  The whirlwind of California political activities in early anticipation of the 2024 election continues.  With Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) already declaring for the US Senate and three others announcing for Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Burbank) House seat even though he has yet to say he’s running for the Senate, we now see a state legislator, Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), making a move. 
Yesterday, Sen. Min announced his intention to compete for Rep. Porter’s open seat and will have the Congresswoman’s endorsement.  Since California state Senate seats are larger than congressional districts, Sen. Min’s overlay into the current 47th CD from his 37th District state Senate seat is substantial and includes the region’s anchor city of Irvine.  

​Louisiana:  GOP Rep. Garret Graves Poised to Enter ’23 Gov Race:  It is believed that US Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was just elected to a fifth term in the House, will imminently announce his 2023 gubernatorial candidacy.  With both Sen. John Kennedy (R) and Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R) deciding not to run for Governor and incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) ineligible to seek a third term, the race becomes wide open. 
The early leader appears to be Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Landry (R), but with the candidate filing deadline set for August 10th and the initial primary scheduled for October 14th, this race still has months to develop.  Since this is an odd-year election, Rep. Graves would not have to risk his House seat in order to enter the statewide contest.
North Carolina:  AG Josh Stein (D) Declares for Governor:  Two-term state Attorney General Josh Stein (D), who barely won re-election in 2020 with a scant 50.1 – 49.9% majority, announced his bid for Governor yesterday.  Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2024, which will lead to another tight North Carolina open statewide campaign.  Mr. Stein, who is the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination, will probably face Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson who looks to have the inside track toward becoming the GOP standard bearer.  We can expect another close statewide election in this highly competitive political state.