Minnesota: Surprising New Poll: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has always been regarded as a lock for re-election, and while the newly released Redfield & Wilton survey (8/25-28; 426 MN likely voters) does not suggest any result other than the Senator’s victory, the poll results reveal a closer than expected developing campaign. The R&W ballot test numbers find Sen. Klobuchar leading former NBA basketball player Royce White (R) by only a 51-44% margin.

This poll is likely an anomaly large due to the small sample size. In contrast, Survey USA was in the field during a similar period (8/27-29; 635 MN likely voters; online) and found a much different ballot test result with the Senator leading Mr. White, 50-36%.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Takes Command in Senate Race: In a race that has attracted little in the way of political attention because most observers believe the result is a foregone conclusion, Research America, polling for the West Virginia Metro News website (8/21-27; 400 WV likely voters; live interview), casts Gov. Jim Justice (R) in a very favorable light. In the Senate race after reaching the maximum number of years allowed in the Governor’s office, Mr. Justice posts a major advantage over Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D). Looking at the ballot test data, Gov. Justice is staked to a huge 62-28% margin over Mayor Elliott.
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Should Gov. Justice continue this trend and claim the seat on election night, a West Virginia conversion victory would give the Republicans their 50th Senate seat. Defeating just one more Democratic incumbent would secure an outright GOP majority in the next Congress.

AK-AL: Primary Numbers Final: The Alaska August 20th primary numbers are now final, and Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished with 50.9% of the vote in the state’s unique top four jungle primary system. Obtaining a majority primary vote makes her the favorite for the general election.

In second place was Republican Nick Begich, III with 26.6% followed by GOP Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom who posted 19.9% support. The fourth place finisher, Republican Matthew Salisbury, received only 652 votes, for less than 1%. Ms. Dahlstrom is forfeiting her general election position, and it is unclear if Mr. Salisbury will continue. Therefore, it appears that Mr. Begich will get his long-awaited chance to face Rep. Peltola in a budding one-on-one campaign.

While Ms. Peltola received majority support, it was with a turnout of only 108,407 voters. In the general election, more than 350,000 ballots are projected to be cast meaning the November at-large election yields a whole new political ballgame.

FL-13: A Different Perspective: Last week, St. Pete Polls released an online survey (8/27; 843 FL-13 registered voters; automated phone calls and text) that found Democrat Whitney Fox leading freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) by a 48-44% clip. This week, WPA Intelligence released their data (8/28-29; 400 FL-13 likely voters; live interview and text), which shows the exact opposite ballot test result. According to WPAi, Rep. Luna has a mirror image 48-43% advantage.
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The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-13 as R+12, and The Down Ballot statistical organization (formerly Daily Kos Elections) ranks the Tampa Bay area seat as the 38th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, it is likely that the WPAi numbers are the better gauge since their data is more consistent with the district’s voter history. Still, this will be a competitive election down the home stretch.

Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed: Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70% of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed last night for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

Ohio: Sen. Brown’s Lead May Not Be So Secure: A new On Point/Red Eagle/SoCal Strategies survey has been released for the Ohio races (8/31-9/1; 600 OH likely voters; online) and the results are consistent with what has been presented for weeks. In the presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by nine percentage points, 52-43%. Yet, the Senate contest again produces a much different conclusion.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leads businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by five points, 50-45%. Since the end of May, Sen. Brown has led in six consecutive polls that six different polling firms conducted. His leads have been consistent: eight, five, six, four, five, and five points even though Mr. Trump has led in each survey.

The last time Sen. Brown was on the ballot, in 2018, a total of eight polls were conducted for the race featuring the incumbent and then-US Rep. Jim Renacci (R). Sen. Brown led in each poll and his average advantage was just over 13 percentage points. Yet, his winning margin was only six points. Therefore, if polling history repeats itself in 2024, this race may prove closer than the current data suggest.

Pennsylvania: Race Getting Tighter: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) has clearly been leading his race for re-election, but the most recent polls find the contest becoming much closer, just as former President Trump has been taking a small lead in most of these same Pennsylvania polls.
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After posting consistent double-digit leads through July and early August, the month’s mid to latter periods has yielded different results. Since mid-August, ten polls have been released of this Senate race, and Sen. Casey’s mean average margin has dropped to 4.5 points. In July, his advantage through 11 released polls was almost nine percentage points. While the Trump numbers have improved in recent PA polling, so has Republican Senate challenger David McCormick’s standing.

Ballot: Key States Make Decisions: More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Mr. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the Board’s ruling.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Mr. Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Mr. Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2: Harris Leads in S-USA Poll: As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.
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According to the S-USA results (8/23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42% margin. This district is important because, if it votes Mr. Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer’s Small Lead: The Survey USA statewide poll (8/23-27; 1,293 NE registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.
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Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43% vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38%, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line. While the Osborn standing at 38% is likely what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39% poll total suggests a severe under-performance.

Massachusetts: Primary Today: Coming to the end of primary season, Massachusetts voters cast their nomination ballots today in what appears to be a congressional election with little in the way of competition. Republicans will choose a sacrificial lamb nominee against Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D), and none of the nine US House members face any primary opponent today. In fact, only Reps. Richard Neal (D-Springfield), Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) and Bill Keating (D-Bourne) will have general election opponents. Mr. Neal will face an Independent opponent, while the other two will battle weak Republican nominees.

Polling Series: Emerson College/The Hill: Emerson College, polling for the Hill Newspaper, conducted one of their typical survey series for key US Senate races. In this group, conducted from 8/25-28 with a total of 4,488 respondents in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, we saw serious movement in only two of the races. 

In Michigan, which usually reveals a close race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Democrat’s lead increased to six points, 47-41%. The bigger surprise was Wisconsin. In the Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) – Eric Hovde (R) ballot test, the incumbent led by only one point, 49-48%. In the other races, Democrats Ruben Gallego, Jacky Rosen, and Bob Casey, Jr., all incumbents, continued posting strong numbers in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, respectively.