​Colorado:  Sen. Bennet Up Comfortably:  Emerson College tested the Centennial State electorate (9/18-19; 1,000 CO likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found Sen. Michael Bennet (D) leading GOP businessman Joe O’Dea by a ten-point, 46-36%, margin.  Republicans have tagged this race as an upset possibility, but this poll shows little weakness for the Democratic incumbent who is seeking his third full term.
 
Utah:  Another Close Result:  Polling data suggests that the Utah Senate race is the closest campaign that attracts the least national attention.  A new Dan Jones & Associates survey for the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics (9/3-21; 815 UT registered voters; 786 likely general election voters) finds Sen. Mike Lee (R) ahead of Independent Evan McMullin by only a 37-34% margin.  Though this poll has a very long sampling period, which adversely affects accuracy, it is consistent with some others we’ve seen of this race. 
 
In the early part of this month, both Impact Research and Kurt Jetta, polling for the Center Street PAC, found the candidates languishing within a combined four-point range.  Impact Research actually found Mr. McMullen claiming a one-point edge.
 
Back in April, the majority of Utah Democratic Party convention delegates voted not to field a candidate for the purpose of coalescing behind Mr. McMullin.  Though he is more conservative than what most of the delegates would have desired in a candidate, they did want to see McMullin have a one-on-one shot to challenge Sen. Lee.  

FL-22:  Rep. Deutch Announces Resignation Plans:   In February, Florida Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Boca Raton) announced that he would leave the House before the end of the current legislative session in order to assume the leadership of the American Jewish Committee.  At the time, Mr. Deutch said he would leave sometime on or around October 1st.  Late last week, the Congressman confirmed he will officially resign his seat before September ends. 
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It is unlikely that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will have the time to call a special election to replace Mr. Deutch for a probable lame duck session since Florida law dictates a relatively long voting schedule period once such an election is called.  Therefore, with the party nominations being decided in the August 23rd primary, the new 23rd District will remain open until the new Congress convenes on January 3, 2023.  In the open seat general election, Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz (D) is favored over Republican Joe Budd in a South Florida district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates D+9.

Arizona:  Many Polls, Many Results:  During the period of September 6-19, six different pollsters tested the Arizona Senate race, and the results were wide ranging.  All six agree that Sen. Mark Kelly (D) has a lead over venture capitalist Blake Masters (R), but the advantage span moves all the way from one to 12 points. 
 
Three of the research entities, Emerson College, The Trafalgar Group (R), and Data for Progress (D), find the Kelly margin at two (Emerson) or one point (Trafalgar; DfP).  Another, Insider Advantage (R), pegs the Kelly lead to 6 points; Fabrizio Lee (R)/Impact Research (D) for AARP, posts the Senator to an eight-point edge.  Finally, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights sees the largest Kelly margin, 47-35%.  With such a diverse polling result universe, it is difficult to accurately depict this race’s true status. 

Nevada:  Four in a Row:   As the plethora of polls keep coming, we now see Republican Adam Laxalt taking a small lead over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in four consecutive surveys.  From September 8-20, Emerson College, Data for Progress (D), The Trafalgar Group (R), and Insider Advantage (R) posted leads for Mr. Laxalt of one to four percentage points. 

Unlike the Arizona polls that find inconsistent margin results for Sen. Mark Kelly, these four pollsters all arrive at basically the same conclusion.  Additionally, the Senator fails to break a highwater mark of 46% in any of the surveys, a bad sign for any incumbent. 
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New Hampshire:  Sen. Hassan in Driver’s Seat:  It appears that Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and various Republican strategists and consultants were correct to forecast that retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) would not be a strong opponent against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in the November election.  Three polls have now been released since the state’s September 13th primary election, from Emerson College, the American Research Group, and the University of New Hampshire.  The surveys were conducted within the September 14-19 period.  All three pollsters find Sen. Hassan leading the race with margins between 8 and 13 percentage points.  

FL-2:  Closer Than Expected:  When the Florida redistricting map was adopted, most agreed the incumbent getting the worst draw was three-term Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) who saw his Tallahassee to Jacksonville 5th District split into several parts.  Left with tough choices, Rep. Lawson chose to seek re-election against Republican incumbent Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) in the new 2nd District. 

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat that stretches from Tallahassee to the Emerald Coast as R+17.  The Dave’s Redistricting App data group calculates the partisan lean as 54.5R – 43.8D. 
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A new David Binder Research (D) poll (9/14/18; 600 FL-2 likely general election voters; live interview & online) finds Rep. Dunn holding only a 49-43% lead, however, which is a closer result than one would expect from a district with such strong Republican base numbers.

Nevada:  Sheriff Lombardo Gaining Momentum:   Three polling firms have tested the tight Nevada Governor’s race between incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak and Republican challenger Joe Lombardo, the Clark County Sheriff.  Emerson College, Data for Progress (D), and The Trafalgar Group (R), all see a race falling within the margin of error. 
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While Trafalgar finds Mr. Lombardo holding a three-point lead, the other two research entities see the candidates at even strength.  Like Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) as covered above (see Nevada Senate), Gov. Sisolak is far short of attracting majority support.  In these three polls conducted within the September 8-20 period, the Governor fails to break the 45% support level.

​Georgia:  Conflicting Results:  Continuing the seesaw political affair between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and former NFL and University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R), we reported yesterday that the new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll (9/5-16; 861 GA likely general election voters) finds Mr. Walker leading Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), 46-44%. 
 
Later in the day, YouGov, polling for CBS News (9/14-19; 1,148 GA registered voters; online) released their Georgia survey that pushed voters to make a Senate race choice, and found the same two-point margin but in Sen. Warnock’s favor, 51-49%.  The exhaustive poll asked 72 questions, and while Sen. Warnock is clearly more favorably viewed that Mr. Walker, the vote continues to remain virtually even.  The University of Georgia and YouGov/CBS News surveys are even more evidence that the Georgia Senate campaign will be decided in a turnout battle.

WA-3:  GOP Rebound:  In late August, Expedition Strategies released a survey (8/19-20; 400 WA-3 likely general election voters) that was cause for concern among local southwest Washington GOP activists and supporters.  After Republican Joe Kent and Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez denied Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground) advancement into the general election from the August 2nd jungle primary, ES released their survey that gave the Democrat a 47-45% lead in the general election. 
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Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute, (9/19-20; 834 WA-3 voters; live interview & text) now projects Mr. Kent to have overtaken Ms. Perez with a 47-44% slight margin.  The WA-3 race is a must-win for the GOP if they are to reclaim the House majority, so this race merits further national attention.

Florida:  DeSantis Comfortably Ahead:  We haven’t seen a Florida Governor’s poll in weeks that showed enough change to report upon, but yesterday we two were almost simultaneously released.  Both largely confirmed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has a lead beyond the polling margin of error. 
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Civiqs, polling for the Daily Kos Elections site (9/17-20; 617 FL likely general election voters; online), posts the Governor to a 52-45% advantage over former Governor and recently resigned Congressman Charlie Crist (D).  Suffolk University (9/15-18; 500 FL likely general election voters; live interview) derived similar results.  They project the Governor’s lead to be 48-41% over Mr. Crist.

​Georgia:  Walker Back Up:  In what is proving a seesaw affair between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and former NFL and University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R), the new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll (9/5-16; 861 GA likely general election voters) again detects a change in leadership.  The last three polls posted Sen. Warnock to leads between four and six points, and now the AJC/UGA data finds Mr. Walker re-assuming the lead, 46-44%. 
 
The bottom line is that this race is close and either candidate has a strong chance to win.  Turnout will be the key factor.  In the primary, Republican turnout was up an astonishing 110% when compared to the 2018 midterm election.  Democratic participation was also up, but with a much smaller 29% increase.

Nevada:  The Democrats’ “Three-fer” Commercials:  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has a new interesting media message approach for the three Nevada congressional districts, each of which are covered through the Las Vegas Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).  The tactic is to attack all three Republican candidates, businessman Mark Robertson, attorney April Becker, and insurance agency owner Sam Peters, with one message.  Since the party is running a single-issue strategy about abortion, the ad hits all three candidates simultaneously for their pro-life stance. 

The move is obviously an efficient use of their advertising dollars, but combining all three candidates in one message might be too convoluted for the voters to fully comprehend.  The idea behind the spot is simply to associate all Republican congressional candidates with the pro-life position, thus making the message clearer.
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Mr. Robertson is challenging Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) in the 1st District; Ms. Becker opposes Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in District 3; and Mr. Peters faces Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) in the more expansive 4th CD that begins in North Las Vegas and stretches to the center of the state.  All three are highly competitive in the general election.