President Biden: Drops Campaign Bid; VP Harris Endorsed: As we know, President Biden withdrew from the presidential race yesterday and now the Democrats are faced with the task of choosing a new nominee.
The most logical and practical selection is Vice President Kamala Harris. First, President Biden has already endorsed her, helping to bolster her claim for the position. Second, one of the main points the President made in favor of staying on the ticket was the 14+ million people who voted for him throughout the primary voting process. Vice President Harris is the only person who can claim with some legitimacy that the people voting for Biden were also approving her position on the national ticket. Third, and perhaps most importantly, the money transfer is a critical factor in the transition to a new nominee. The current Biden campaign treasury, some $91.5 million according to the June 30th Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, can only be transferred to Vice President Harris. For any other candidate, the Biden money would have to be refunded to donors and then re-contributed to the new nominee. Vice-President Harris: Considering Running Mates: News reports suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris is considering four elected officials as possible replacements for herself as she ascends to the presidential nomination. The first cut of potential running mates appears to feature Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and three Governors: Andy Beshear (KY), Roy Cooper (NC), and Josh Shapiro (PA). NE-2: Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead: A Torchlight Strategies poll (7/8-11; 300 NE-2 likely voters) sees four-term US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) topping state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) 46-43% in his bid for a fifth term. NE-2 is a swing congressional district and one that carries its own electoral vote in the presidential election. Because it can vote opposite of the state total, the district is one of two seats in the country – ME-2 being the other – that could cause a tie in the Electoral College. Both Maine and Nebraska employ a system where the presidential candidate is awarded two electoral votes for winning the statewide count and one each for the congressional districts that they carry.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NE-2 as R+3, which is different than the 2020 configuration that gave Joe Biden a 22,000+ vote win over then-President Donald Trump. The previous rating was Even. In 2022, Rep. Bacon defeated Sen. Vargas, 51-49%, and another tight race between the two men is forecast for November. TX-18: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away: On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away. Weeks before she announced that she was fighting pancreatic cancer, a disease that she could not overcome. Rep. Jackson Lee was 74 years of age, and the third member of the House to pass away during this Congress. The other two were Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA) and Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ). Texas’ 18th District is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+43. The Daily Kos Elections site statisticians rank the seat as the 46th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. The local Democratic Party committee will choose a nominee to replace Ms. Jackson Lee on the November ballot by August 26th. It is unclear at this writing whether Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will call a special election for an individual to serve the balance of the current term. CBS News: Poll Yields Strongest Trump National Lead: The new national CBS News Poll (YouGov; 7/16-18; 2,240 US likely voters; online) finds former President Trump holding his largest lead over President Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris doesn’t fare any better. According to the nationwide ballot test, Mr. Trump would top President Biden, 52-47%, in the popular vote count, while VP Harris trails the former President by a similar 51-48% result.
YouGov also asked a hypothetical question in a different flash poll. Their previous survey (7/12-16; 520 US adults; online) queried the respondents whether they would prefer that President Biden or Vice President Harris in the Democratic primary. By a nine point spread, 46-37%, the respondents favored the incumbent President. While the result may be interesting, it is not well targeted. A more valuable poll would have expanded the size of the universe and concentrated solely on Democratic registered voters. Arizona: Lake Pulls Ahead: In the first published Arizona Senate poll since March to show a Republican edge, a J.L. Partners survey (internal for the Lake campaign; 7/10-11; 513 AZ likely general election voters) sees former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial Republican nominee Kari Lake taking a small one point lead over US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), 44-43%.
The split we have seen in other states, where former President Trump is well ahead of President Biden and the Senate candidate lags behind, is also present here but Mr. Trump’s margin is large enough, 46-40%, that the two-point drop-off between Trump and Lake does not deny the latter the Senate race lead. The Arizona campaign is definitely a contest with which to monitor throughout the remaining time in the current election cycle. MI-10: Rep. James Trailing in Questionable Poll: The Target Insyght polling organization conducted a survey for the Deadline Detroit news website that finds Michigan’s 10th District Congressman John James (R-Farmington Hills) trailing his 2022 opponent by a substantial margin. The poll (7/14-15; 400 MI-10 “people;” plus or minus 5 percentage point error factor) reveals some head scratching numbers, which spur reliability questions.
The ballot test favors the Congressman’s Democratic 2022 opponent, former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga (D) leading Rep. James 49-43%, despite the challenger languishing in a 10:1 financial deficit. The poll has many flaws, such as blacks favoring Republican James, men favoring Mr. Marlinga, and women slightly backing the GOP incumbent. Most of the information found in this Target Insyght poll simply doesn’t make sense and should be considered unreliable. Expect the James campaign to soon counter this data with a poll of their own for purposes of setting the record straight. Nevada: Top Five Ranked Choice Initiative Qualifies for Ballot: A ballot proposition to change the Nevada primary to a top five jungle primary system has qualified for the November ballot. In Nevada, ballot propositions must pass two different electorates to become effective and this will be the second time the Top-Five Ranked Choice Voting initiative comes before the voters. In 2022, the measure passed with a 53-47% result.
This time, however, the opposition will spend heavily, already booking $15 million in media time to block the ballot proposition. The opponents have an interesting coalition. Not only are prominent Republicans such as US Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City), against it, but so are Democratic US Senators Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen. The Nevada AFL-CIO also opposes. The proponents have $9 million in media advertising reserved. The top five system is based upon Alaska’s top four process. All candidates would be placed on one qualifying ballot, and the top five finishers would advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. If no one secures a majority in the general election, the Ranked Choice system then takes effect. Unlike in Alaska, however, the Nevada top five will not be in effect for presidential races. The Ranked Choice System, where used, more often than not elects a political minority candidate as opposed to a plurality winner. That’s because the people voting for the last place finishers in each round receive an additional vote. Sen. Bob Menendez: Will Resign: Reports coming from New Jersey indicate that convicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D), answering the calls of the New Jersey political leadership to resign his seat, will do so. Had he not agreed to leave, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) indicated that he would have introduced a resolution to expel Mr. Menendez.
When the Senator leaves office, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) indicated he will make a caretaker appointment, meaning an individual that will only serve the balance of the current term. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) won the Democratic nomination in the June 4th primary and is favored to win the general election in November. He, or whoever wins the general election, will then be sworn in with the new Congress next January. Senate Fundraising: 2nd Qtr FEC Report: The Daily Kos Elections staff has once again completed their tabulation from the latest Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports, this for the 2nd quarter of the election year. A total of 66 Senate candidates filed reports and cumulatively the group raised over $172,000,000 in the second quarter of 2024. The cycle-to-date fundraising figure for the aggregate group is just under $772,000,000. The individual campaign mean average figure is $2.6 million raised for the quarter and over $11.6 million for the election cycle. The median average per campaign is $8.5 million cycle-to-date. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has raised the most for the 2024 campaign, over $57.3 million, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) next with $51.4 million in campaign receipts. The candidate with the most money in their campaign account at the June 30th filing deadline is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) with $10.8 million cash-on-hand. The non-incumbent who has raised the most cycle-to-date is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) with $38.8 million raised, but his opponent, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) outraised him in the second quarter, $5.4 million to $4.0 million. MI-7: Republican Leads in Swing District: A new Noble Predictive Insights survey of central Michigan voters (7/8-11; 532 MI-7 likely general election voters; live interview & text) finds a rather surprising result on their 7th Congressional District ballot test question. Former state Senator Tom Barrett (R) lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the last election by a 52-46% margin but now leads former state Sen. Curtis Hertel (D) by a 48-41% spread that is beyond the polling margin of error.
The MI-7 campaign will be one of the most competitive in the nation. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat R+4. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.3D – 47.9R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rate MI-7 as the sixth most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference and is clearly a top Republican conversion target. NY-19: Rep. Molinaro Holds Definitive Lead: New York Congressman Marc Molinaro’s (R-Red Hook) campaign released the results of their latest Cygnal data organization poll (7/9-11; 420 NY-19 registered voters). According to the survey results, Rep. Molinaro, who defeated Democrat Josh Riley 50-48% in 2022, now leads his former and current opponent by a 47-38% in a 19th CD that was made slightly more Republican in the latest redistricting draw. Democratic National Convention: Further Activity to Open Convention: While the move to replace President Biden as the Democratic nominee quelled temporarily in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Trump, California US Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) is now circulating a Dear Colleague letter to encourage the Democratic National Committee to forego plans to virtually renominate President Biden. The process is scheduled to begin at the end of the month, but the Huffman proposal would instead allow the nomination roll call vote to occur at the Democratic National Convention as originally planned.
The Congressman points out that the delegates should make the nomination decision at the convention to possibly allow another candidate, presumably Vice President Kamala Harris, to emerge as the party nominee, presumably to give the party a better chance of defeating Mr. Trump in November. Though delegates are bound by state law, they can, as a matter of conscience, abstain from voting. This could lead to multiple ballots until the various state laws and party rules that bind delegate votes to the candidate whom the state voters supported expire. At that point, the convention would be open to potentially nominate another candidate. New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) Found Guilty: Sen. Bob Menendez (D/I-NJ) was found guilty of bribery and corruption on all counts yesterday, and key Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Menendez’s home state Governor, Phil Murphy (D), are calling for him to resign.
Other New Jersey officials yesterday making public statements encouraging Sen. Menendez to voluntarily leave office are the state’s junior Senator, Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the Democratic nominee poised to succeed Menendez in the November election, developer Curtis Bashaw, the Republican US Senate nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (D), an announced 2025 gubernatorial candidate. Should Menendez soon depart the Senate either through resignation or expulsion, Gov. Murphy has already said that he will make a caretaker appointment to immediately fill the seat. Losing Menendez, the Democratic majority would retreat to 50D-49R division for the short term. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
July 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|