​Marianne Williamson:  Unsuspends Campaign:  Democrat Marianne Williamson, who suspended her presidential campaign after the Nevada primary, yesterday returned to active status.  As a non-candidate in South Carolina and Michigan, she placed ahead of Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN) in both states.  Neither, however, have registered even 5% support against President Biden.  Ms. Williamson returning to active campaigning will do little to dissuade a Biden renomination.  He remains on target to clinch the party nod after the March 19th primaries conclude.

Indiana:  Rep. Banks Unopposed for Senate Nomination:  The Indiana Election Commission unanimously removed Republican John Rust from the ballot for failure to meet one of the party standards to qualify as a candidate.  That is, Mr. Rust could offer no proof that he voted in two consecutive Republican primaries.  The Commission’s action means that Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) will enter the open Indiana Republican Senate primary as an unopposed candidate. 

Winning the GOP primary will then give Mr. Banks the inside track to winning the Senate seat outright in the general election.  This will become one of the easiest open Senate campaigns that we have seen in recent memory.  Sen. Mike Braun (R) is bypassing running for a second term to launch a gubernatorial bid.
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Sen. Mitch McConnell:  Will Step Down from Leadership:  Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) announcement yesterday that he will step down as Republican Leader after the elections in November could cause some uncertainty in the GOP fundraising ranks.  The Senate Leadership Fund, which several of his key supporters run, raised over $289 million for the 2022 election cycle.  In the year 2023 just concluded, the Fund attracted over $37 million.  It remains to be seen if the national Republicans’ fundraising drops even more now that donors know McConnell’s time as Leader will be officially coming to an end.

MT-2:  Rep. Rosendale Will Seek Re-Election:  We are now seeing a retirement reversal trend taking hold.   Yesterday, Montana US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), after entering the Senate race for just a week, will now actively pursue a re-election campaign. 

​With the incumbent returning, it remains to be seen just how many of the nine announced GOP candidates, including former at-large Rep. Denny Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), will continue their candidacies.

Mr. Rosendale becomes the third House member to announce that he would not be seeking re-election only to change course and run again.  The others are Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN).  Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), who recently announced his own retirement, also may be in the process of changing his mind.  The House open seat count now recedes to 48.  If Rep. Green decides to file, the number drops to 47.  Once the three special elections are held, the total number of House open seats will reduce further to 44.

NY-1:  Former State Senator Drops Challenge:  New York former state Senator Jim Gaughran (D) announced yesterday that he is ending his congressional challenge to freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) after seeing the new redistricting map that made Long Island’s 1st District more Republican.  In his exit, Mr. Gaughran endorsed former CNN anchor John Avlon (D).  Also in the 1st District Democratic race are 2020 congressional nominee Nancy Goroff and ex-congressional staff member Kyle Hill.   Rep. LaLota is favored for re-election.

​Michigan:  Primary Results:  As expected, President Biden and former President Donald Trump easily captured large percentages in winning last night’s respective Democratic and Republican Michigan presidential primary elections. 
 
President Biden recorded 81.1% of the Democratic vote, though just under 14% voted for the Uncommitted Delegate Slate.  US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Democratic voters to choose that option as a way to protest President Biden’s position regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict.  For the Republicans, Mr. Trump attracted 68.2% of the GOP vote, again consistent with the result most pollsters predicted.  Overall turnout favored Republicans approximately 1.13 million to about 778,000 individuals.
 
The Wolverine State primary represents the final installment of the pre-Super Tuesday voting events.  The next primaries will occur on March 5th where 16 entities will cast primary or caucus ballots in either Democratic or Republican nomination events.

Wisconsin:  Sen. Baldwin +7 Over Hovde:  Last week, businessman Eric Hovde (R) announced his US Senate candidacy in the Badger State, and this week we see the first polling pairing with two-term incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D).  Emerson College released their latest Wisconsin survey (2/20-24; 1,000 WI registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the sampling universe would support Donald Trump 44-42%, Democratic incumbent Baldwin would lead the Senate race 46-39%.
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The poll might look more encouraging for Republicans at first glance since Sen. Baldwin is under 50% and has only a single digit lead against a relatively unknown opponent.  The polling universe, however, features more Republicans than Democrats, 35-33% with an additional 32% responding as non-affiliated.  Though Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, voter history suggests that the poll, though weighted to reflect the actual electorate, appears to have a slight Republican skew.

New York:  Dems Unveil New Cong Map:  The Democratic super majority in the state Assembly and Senate unveiled a new congressional map that surprised many, but in retrospect the plan is an indication the party leaders knew they would face tough going on a legal challenge if they stretched their partisan interests much further.
 
As reported earlier, the state’s Citizens Redistricting Commission made only cosmetic changes in the plan the court created for the 2022 election.  Though that map only gave Republicans a clear partisan plurality in just three of the state’s 26 seats according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the GOP candidates won eleven races.  The Citizens Commission members left the court footprint largely intact, which the legislature then rejected.  When the people adopted a citizens’ redistricting commission ballot proposition, the process allowed the legislature to either approve or reject the commission adopted plans.
 
The surprising end to this story is the legislature’s own map is another “least change” map from the court’s original footprint, which very likely means that the 2024 NY congressional playing field will be almost identical to what we saw in 2022.
 
TN-7:  Delegation Attempting to Convince Rep. Green to “Unretire”:  So far in this election cycle, we’ve seen two US House members, Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN), announce their retirements only to change their mind and seek re-election.  We may soon have a third.  Public reports are coming from Tennessee where the Republican congressional delegation, including Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) who previously represented the 7th District during her career in the House, are publicly encouraging Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, to change his mind about retiring.  Last week, Rep. Green announced he would not seek a fourth term.
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The Tennessee candidate filing deadline is April 4th for the August 1st primary, so it is possible we may soon see one less open House seat.

Michigan:  Presidential Primaries Today:  The presidential nomination process moves to Michigan today and Wolverine State voters of both parties will cast delegate apportioning votes.  It is clear that President Biden and former President Trump will win their respective primaries, and by large majorities. 

The Emerson College survey (2/20-24; 1,000 MI registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Mr. Biden posting a whopping 75-5% lead over US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN).  A total of 9% report planning to vote for the Uncommitted Slate, the move that Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is encouraging Michigan voters to take in order to protest the President’s pro-Israel policy.  On the Republican side, Mr. Trump records a 69-20% lead over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.  Both men are already in the “presumptive nominee” sphere.

Maine:  Shock Poll; Trump Leads in General:  A very surprising general election poll in Maine was released from the Pan Atlantic Research organization in Portland, ME.  The poll (2/6-14; 836 ME adults; 791 ME likely voters; online) finds former President Trump topping President Biden in what was previously a state largely unattainable for Republican presidential candidates.  The numbers find Mr. Trump leading the President 38-32% with 21% saying they would vote for another candidate.  The “other candidates” were not identified, but it is reasonable to assume that most of these New Englanders choosing to support a candidate other than Messrs. Biden or Trump would be headed to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 
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Mr. Trump is carrying the state largely on the back of his 20 point lead in the 2nd Congressional District.  He would trail Mr. Biden in the Democratic 1st CD by eight points.  Because Maine’s congressional districts carry their own electoral votes, the results suggest Mr. Trump would get three electoral votes from the state and Mr. Biden, one.  Of course, these surprising results can easily change but things will have to significantly improve for President Biden before such happens.  According to this data, the President’s favorability index in Maine is 38:61% favorable to unfavorable, meaning the campaign’s task of improving his image is a difficult one.

Michigan:  New GOP Poll Posts Ex-Rep. Rogers to Primary Lead:  A regular Michigan pollster, MRG Research, surveyed the state’s Republican electorate and becomes the first poll in the field since retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) withdrew from the Senate race.  The study (2/19-22; 600 MI likely primary voters) finds former US Rep. Mike Rogers opening a large 23-7% Republican primary lead over ex-Rep. Peter Meijer. 
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Another former Congressman, Libertarian Justin Amash, is reportedly considering entering the GOP race but has yet to do so.  The Michigan state primary is not scheduled until August 6th.  The eventual Republican Senate nominee will very likely face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election.  The Congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

New York:  Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map:  Yesterday, both chambers of the New York state legislature rejected the Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional plan that made few changes to the court imposed map of 2022.  It is clear that the Democratic legislature wants to draw a political footprint more favorable for their party but will do so under what will be an almost guaranteed partisan gerrymandering lawsuit.

The state Senate then passed a bill attempting to limit where such a lawsuit could be filed, listing the most populous and Democratic counties in the state.  Republicans claim that such a maneuver will be ruled unconstitutional.
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While the Democrats may have won this latest New York redistricting round, the fight is a long way from culmination.

South Carolina:  Trump Posts 20 Point Victory:  Despite winning a landslide victory on Saturday in his opponent’s home state, some are qualifying former President Donald Trump’s South Carolina result as an underperformance.

As polling predicted, Mr. Trump easily won the Palmetto State Republican primary in defeating former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley by a 59.8 – 39.5% margin.  While Mr. Trump carried 43 of the state’s 46 counties, two of the three he did not, Charleston and Beaufort counties, are located in the 1st Congressional District (Rep. Nancy Mace-R).  Her formidable margins in these two counties allowed Ms. Haley to carry the 1st District, thus awarding her three of her home state’s 50 pledged delegates.  The only other county Ms. Haley carried was Richland, home to the capital city of Columbia, which is South Carolina’s most Democratic area. 
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In Saturday’s Republican primary, 750,586 voters cast a ballot for either Mr. Trump or Ms. Haley.  Though Mr. Biden posted 96% preference in the February 3rd South Carolina Democratic primary, only 131,307 Democratic primary voters participated.  Four years ago, when Mr. Biden won the SC primary against six opponents, over 539,000 people voted in the Democratic primary.  In 2020, Mr. Biden won the primary with virtually double the amount of votes (262,336) he received here earlier this month.