California: Garvey’s Momentum: A newly released California US Senate poll leads one to believe that the edge Republican Steve Garvey was developing for a potential second place jungle primary finish is already evaporating. The University of California at Berkeley’s Public Policy Institute of California released another of their regular Golden State surveys and the ballot test, while again projecting US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) capturing first place as he has in every poll, found Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) slipping past Mr. Garvey by a percentage point.
The timing of the release suggests that Porter may be gaining momentum, but a closer examination of the methodology suggests otherwise. Late last week, we reported upon an Emerson College California survey (2/16-18; 1,000 CA registered voters; 935 CA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) that found Schiff leading the group with a 28% preference figure with Garvey at 22%, Porter posting 16%, and US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 9% support. The Cal-Berkeley poll was then released later that showed Porter’s one point edge for the second qualifying position. Though released on February 23rd, The Cal-Berkeley poll was actually conducted during the February 6-13 period, thus showing that this data was derived a week before Emerson’s. Understanding the polling progression suggests that it is the Garvey momentum which appears to be real. North Dakota: Sen. Cramer Announces: First-term North Dakota Senator Ken Cramer (R) has been circumspect about whether or not he would seek a second term, even dropping retirement hints for almost a year. On Friday, he made his political plans public, and Sen. Cramer will be on the 2024 North Dakota ballot. He will have little in the way of either primary or general election opposition, so this is one more seat that will have an incumbent who is rated a prohibitive favorite. Arizona: Sinema on the Rise: Two new Arizona US Senate polls were just released, and both show a significant change in the race status. While previous polls were projecting Republican Kari Lake holding a small lead, this pair sees Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) moving into first place and incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, running on the Independent line, substantially improving her position. Previously, she was languishing in the teens, and now both surveys find her well in the 20+ percentile range and back in competition to potentially win re-election.
Emerson College surveyed the Arizona electorate over the February 16-19 period (1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results find a 36-30-21% Gallego, Lake, and Sinema split. Arizona based Noble Predictive Insights polled the state during the February 6-13 period (1,002 AZ registered voters; online) and found a similar result, 34-31-23% in the same order as the Emerson finding. Nevada: Tight Senate Poll Results: Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and KLAS-TV in Las Vegas also polled the impending Nevada Senate race (2/16-19; (1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) and already project a dead heat contest. The results find Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), running for a second term, dropping to 40% support and leading Afghanistan veteran Sam Brown (R) by only a 40-38% margin. The Nevada race will become a top tier Republican challenge opportunity. TX-18: Rep. Jackson Lee in Close Primary: The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a survey (2/7-17; 450 TX-18 likely voters; text & online) of the Houston anchored 18th Congressional District and finds a close Democratic primary developing. The ballot test projects veteran Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), reeling from a poor performance in the Houston Mayor’s race, leading former Houston City Councilwoman and 2020 US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards by only a 43-38% spread. Minor candidate Rob Slater, a convicted felon, captures three percentage points.
This survey suggests there is a political hangover for Jackson Lee who lost badly to now- Mayor John Whitmire (D), 64-36%, in the December mayoral runoff. Therefore, we see another March 5th race that will draw major interest. North Dakota: Gov. Burgum Endorses: It appears we are headed for a highly competitive open North Dakota Republican primary on June 11th. Yesterday, retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R) announced his endorsement of Lt. Governor Tammy Miller (R) to succeed him.
Ms. Miller already announced that she is bypassing the North Dakota Republican Party endorsing convention because she knows that at-large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck), a former party chairman, is a lock to be the official party candidate. This forces a primary election between the two, with the winner becoming the prohibitive favorite for the Autumn campaign. CA-47: Poll Suggests Baugh and Min Advance to General: As the California candidates head toward the March 5th jungle primary, Republican Scott Baugh, who held Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) to a 52-48% victory in 2022 even though the incumbent outspent him by almost a 10:1 margin, released an internal poll for the upcoming race.
WPA Intelligence surveyed the CA-47 electorate (2/12-14; 366 CA-47 likely jungle primary voters; live interview and text) and sees Mr. Baugh placing first and advancing into the general election. In second place, despite being under heavy attack for his drunk driving arrest, is state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) with 22%. Attorney Joanna Weiss (D), the third major candidate in the race, trails with 16%. Under California election law, the top two primary finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained, will advance into the general election. The 47th CD, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank as the 32nd most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference will be hotly contested in November. MT-2: Ex-Rep Denny Rehberg to Run Again: While Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) still has not said whether he will seek re-election to the House after withdrawing from his short lived Senate campaign, other Republicans are moving forward. The latest to enter the race is former six-term Congressman Denny Rehberg. Serving from 2001-2013 and leaving the at-large House seat in an unsuccessful attempt at running for the Senate, Mr. Rehberg is attempting a political comeback after a long absence. He also was elected twice on the statewide ticket as Montana’s Lt. Governor prior to his service in Congress. Assuming Rep. Rosendale does not run, Rehberg will have a lot of company in the Republican primary. A total of nine contenders have become candidates for the ostensibly open position with Mr. Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City) appear to be the most formidable of the group. It remains to be seen how many will continue their campaign if Rosendale decides to run again, but every day the Congressman delays in announcing his plans makes it all the more certain that the major players remain in the race. The Montana candidate filing deadline is March 11th. NY-26: Republicans Choose ex-FBI Agent as Nominee: The 26th District Republican county chairmen have chosen West Seneca Town Supervisor and former FBI agent Gary Dickson as their special election nominee to replace resigned New York Congressman Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo). The 26th District is heavily Democratic, so state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo), the latter party’s nominee begins the race as the solid favorite. Even Mr. Dickson acknowledged his uphill battle saying, “the voters need an election and not a coronation.” The special election is scheduled for April 30th. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18. OR-5: Democrats Coalescing: One of the major OR-5 Democratic contenders this week ended her bid and endorsed an opponent. Lynn Peterson is the President of Portland’s Metro Council and was an announced congressional candidate. Seeing the race trends, Ms. Peterson has dropped her bid and endorsed state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), following the lead of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The 2022 nominee, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is in the race, but losing steam. She failed against now-incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) in 2022, and it’s clear the Democratic synergy is turning toward Rep. Bynum as the person most believe is the stronger candidate. Oregon’s 5th District race will be one of the most hotly contested US House campaigns in the country and is one of the keys toward deciding which party will control the chamber in the next Congress. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OR-5 as D+3. President Biden carried the seat by a 53-44% margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2022, Ms. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Ms. McLeod-Skinner, 51-49%. Decision Desk HQ: Projects Trump at 312 EVs: The Decision Desk HQ in association with The Hill newspaper has forecast a new 50-state electoral vote projection. All swing states are averaged based upon data from at least five recent polls. The new estimates give former President Donald Trump his largest ever electoral vote lead, 312-226.
The key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all landing in the Trump camp according to DDHQ. To win the 2024 election, Mr. Trump needs to convert states that equal 35 electoral votes. According to this projection, Mr. Trump is improving his stance by 80 electoral votes when compared with his 2020 performance. California: Primary Battle Over Second Place: Emerson College surveyed the California electorate in a partnership with The Hill newspaper and the Inside California Politics blog (2/16-18; 1,000 CA registered voters; 935 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) again found US Rep. Adam Schiff (D) leading the open US Senate field, this time with 28% of the vote. In second place, and for the first time with a sizable advantage over the third place finisher, is former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) with 22 percent. Following are Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 16 and 9%, respectively.
The poll has a number of positive points for Mr. Garvey. Aside from the Emerson/Hill data suggesting he secures a general election slot, he does well with older voters. He registers a 33% preference total from those over 70 years of age, which is typically the highest turnout sector, and scores in second position with who voters believe would best handle the crime, homelessness, war in Israel, and immigration issues, while rating only 3 points below who would best handle abortion. Additionally, the third place finisher, Rep. Porter, does best with the youth vote, but this segment has the poorest participation history. The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5th. The top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained will advance to the general election. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D), who Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), is not running for a full term. Texas: Rep. Allred Establishes Strong Primary Lead; Cruz Likewise in General: YouGov, polling for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (2/2-12; 1,313 TX registered voters; 1,200 TX likely primary voters; online), tested the Lone Star State electorate for the coming March 5th primary election, and found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), who has been using his resource advantage to advertise heavily, exceeding the 50% threshold within the Democratic primary segment. According to the YouGov results, Mr. Allred records a 52% preference figure as compared to state Sen. Roland Gutierrez’s (D-San Antonio) 14 percent. Former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) register support figures of only 5 and 2%. Within the general election sample, however, the tables turn. Here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) records his best polling stance of the current campaign, with a 46-32% margin over Rep. Allred. The Daily Kos Elections site analysts criticized the poll because the questionnaire did not assign a party label with each candidate. They reason that Allred would have received better support had such been the case. Two points of disagreement: first, the primary question was asked before the general election question, thus the voters were already told that Allred was a Democrat. Second, it is more likely that Sen. Cruz, who has not been overly popular in the state, would have actually benefited more with party labels since Texas has been a solid state for the GOP since the early 1990s. NJ-8: Dueling Internal Dem Primary Polls: Last week, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) released the results of his internal TargetSmart survey that posted him to a relatively strong 46-22% advantage over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in their quest for the Democratic nomination. Yesterday, the Bhalla campaign countered with their own poll, this one from GQR Research another highly rated polling firm. This data (released 2/20; 403 NJ-8 likely Democratic primary voters) finds a much different ballot test, with the incumbent leading only 44-41%.
These polls, seemingly both well conducted, are far apart in how they view the race. This will be another of the most interesting primary contests to watch during our current election cycle. Michigan: Rep. Tlaib Calling for Protest Vote: The Michigan presidential primary is scheduled for next Tuesday, and controversial US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is calling for pro-Palestinian voters to “support Gaza” by voting for the Uncommitted Slate in the Democratic primary. While this tactic may gain some votes within the large Muslim community in the Detroit area, it will not deter President Biden from securing all of Michigan’s Democratic delegates. He is on track to mathematically clinch the nomination on the first convention ballot when the March 19th primaries conclude.
Wisconsin: Republican Candidate Files with FEC: Banking and real estate investor Eric Hovde, who ran for the Senate in the 2012 Republican primary, has filed a 2024 US Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Wisconsin is the last potentially competitive state where Republicans do not have a strong candidate. The national Republican leadership hopes Mr. Hovde will be viable enough to keep this state in play for November. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking a third term.
In 2012, Mr. Hovde lost the Republican primary to former four-term Governor Tommy Thompson on a 34-30% count. Mr. Thompson would then lose to then-US Rep. Baldwin, 51-46%, in what proved to be the Senator’s first statewide victory. Wisconsin elections are always close, so this will be yet another race to watch as the election cycle proceeds. |
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