CA-47: Poll Suggests Baugh and Min Advance to General: As the California candidates head toward the March 5th jungle primary, Republican Scott Baugh, who held Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) to a 52-48% victory in 2022 even though the incumbent outspent him by almost a 10:1 margin, released an internal poll for the upcoming race.
WPA Intelligence surveyed the CA-47 electorate (2/12-14; 366 CA-47 likely jungle primary voters; live interview and text) and sees Mr. Baugh placing first and advancing into the general election. In second place, despite being under heavy attack for his drunk driving arrest, is state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) with 22%. Attorney Joanna Weiss (D), the third major candidate in the race, trails with 16%. Under California election law, the top two primary finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained, will advance into the general election. The 47th CD, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank as the 32nd most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference will be hotly contested in November. MT-2: Ex-Rep Denny Rehberg to Run Again: While Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) still has not said whether he will seek re-election to the House after withdrawing from his short lived Senate campaign, other Republicans are moving forward. The latest to enter the race is former six-term Congressman Denny Rehberg. Serving from 2001-2013 and leaving the at-large House seat in an unsuccessful attempt at running for the Senate, Mr. Rehberg is attempting a political comeback after a long absence. He also was elected twice on the statewide ticket as Montana’s Lt. Governor prior to his service in Congress. Assuming Rep. Rosendale does not run, Rehberg will have a lot of company in the Republican primary. A total of nine contenders have become candidates for the ostensibly open position with Mr. Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City) appear to be the most formidable of the group. It remains to be seen how many will continue their campaign if Rosendale decides to run again, but every day the Congressman delays in announcing his plans makes it all the more certain that the major players remain in the race. The Montana candidate filing deadline is March 11th. NY-26: Republicans Choose ex-FBI Agent as Nominee: The 26th District Republican county chairmen have chosen West Seneca Town Supervisor and former FBI agent Gary Dickson as their special election nominee to replace resigned New York Congressman Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo). The 26th District is heavily Democratic, so state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo), the latter party’s nominee begins the race as the solid favorite. Even Mr. Dickson acknowledged his uphill battle saying, “the voters need an election and not a coronation.” The special election is scheduled for April 30th. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18. OR-5: Democrats Coalescing: One of the major OR-5 Democratic contenders this week ended her bid and endorsed an opponent. Lynn Peterson is the President of Portland’s Metro Council and was an announced congressional candidate. Seeing the race trends, Ms. Peterson has dropped her bid and endorsed state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), following the lead of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The 2022 nominee, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is in the race, but losing steam. She failed against now-incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) in 2022, and it’s clear the Democratic synergy is turning toward Rep. Bynum as the person most believe is the stronger candidate. Oregon’s 5th District race will be one of the most hotly contested US House campaigns in the country and is one of the keys toward deciding which party will control the chamber in the next Congress. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OR-5 as D+3. President Biden carried the seat by a 53-44% margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2022, Ms. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Ms. McLeod-Skinner, 51-49%. Comments are closed.
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