The Democrats maintained the House majority, but not without seeing their margin decline. Currently, 32 races remain uncalled. In those, Republicans are leading in 22, but their leads in many will dissipate when all of the votes are counted. At this point, no GOP incumbent was defeated for re-election.
If the final result remains as all the uncalled races stand today, the GOP would gain a net 14 seats, but in the end their true net total will likely yield an increase within the range of two to eight seats, and probably closer to the higher number.
The results suggest that a reasonable new House party division would yield an approximate 228D – 207R split. If the final number is in this range, Republicans could re-claim the House majority after the 2022 elections with a net gain of approximately 11 seats. Since the modern political era almost always sees a reduction in House support for the new President’s party in the first midterm election, the Republican prospects for returning to power in the 118th Session that would begin in January of 2023 would be heightened, assuming Joe Biden is elected President.
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