As we look to the next election cycle that will feature a preponderance of 38 gubernatorial bids, several will be open due to state term limit laws. Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D), who is the only state chief executive limited to just one term, is barred from seeking re-election in 2021. The 2022 open gubernatorial races are: Arizona (Gov. Doug Ducey-R), Arkansas (Gov. Asa Hutchinson-R), Hawaii, (Gov. David Ige-D), Maryland (Gov. Larry Hogan-R), Nebraska (Gov. Pete Ricketts-R), Oregon (Gov. Kate Brown-D), Pennsylvania (Gov. Tom Wolf-D), and Rhode Island (Gov. Gina Raimondo-D).
A Pennsylvania state judge yesterday ruled that Secretary of the Commonwealth Kathy Boockvar (D) lacked the authority to change the post-election ballot reception deadline for ballots lacking proper identification. Approximately 10,000 ballots fall into this category, and they will apparently now be disqualified. This ruling, in and of itself, will not affect former Vice President Joe Biden carrying the state. His unofficial lead sits at 54,325 votes according to the official state count, but other lawsuits remain pending.
The Keystone State of Pennsylvania is another place whose population is not rapidly growing, and they will again expect to lose a congressional seat when apportionment figures are released at the end of this year. In 2016, a total of 6,115,402 voted in the presidential race. On Tuesday, that figure climbed to an uncertified figure of 6,749,672, for an increase factor of 9.4%, again exceeding the national average of 7.8 percent. The population growth rate in the state for the entire decade is less than one percentage point, suggesting a very strong real voting increase when comparing the two presidential elections.
Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who scored a 51-42% victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). Ms. Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected with a very close win (49.6 – 48.5%) over GOP challenger John James.
The two calls mean that the high number for the Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51. The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.
In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100% of the vote being received. Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats in 15. This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.
Below is a list of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading.
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - Status: 62.3%; Reporting: 50%
Georgia-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) - must reach 50%; Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 97%
Georgia-B: Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - Status: 32.5%; Reporting: 96%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - Status: 26.2%; Reporting: Runoff
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Winner; Status: 51.1%
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) - Winner; Status: 49.6%
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - Status: 48.7%; Reporting: 93%
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) - Status: 63.3%; Reporting: 53%
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) - Status: 52.1%; Reporting: 92%
AZ-6: Hiral Tipirneni (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 76%
CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) - Status: 52.9%; Reporting: 87%
CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) - Status: 53.3%; Reporting: 37%
CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Status: 51.4%; Reporting: 42%
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 77%
CA-39: Young Kim (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 89%
CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 93%
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) - Status: 52.2%; Reporting: 51%
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Status: 51.2%; Reporting: 100%
IA-2: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 100%
IL-14: Jim Oberweis (R) - Status: 50.1%; Reporting: 100%
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Status: 51.8%; Reporting: 100%
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 99%
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) - Status: 53.1%; Reporting: 99%
MI-5: Dan Kildee (D) - Status: 54.3%; Reporting: 100%
MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 97%
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) - Status: 48.6%; Reporting: 100%
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 100%
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 75%
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 85%
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) - Status: 49.7%; Reporting: 65%
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) - Status: 61.3%; Reporting: 99%
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R) - Status: 58.1%; Reporting: 99%
NY-3: George Santos (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 99%
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) - Status: 52.0%; Reporting: 100%
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) - Status: 57.9%; Reporting: 95%
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Status: 50.8%; Reporting: 100%
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) - Status: 51.3%; Reporting: 98%
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 100%
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) - Status: 58.5%; Reporting: 100%
PA-7: Lisa Scheller (R) - Status: 50.7%; Reporting: 86%
PA-8: Jim Bognet (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 86%
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 89%
PA-17: Sean Parnell (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 94%
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R) - Status: 48.8%; Reporting: 99%
UT-4: Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 69%
VA-7: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) - Status: 50.6%; Reporting: 100%
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Status: 54.7%; Reporting: 80%
Last night’s national election, as predicted, looks to be headed to political overtime.
The presidential race won’t be decided for more than a day, and possibly not until all ballots are received and counted in Pennsylvania. The state’s post-election ballot reception deadline is Friday, November 6th, at 5:00 pm.
It appears that former Vice President Joe Biden (D) has the inside track to unseat the President, but Mr. Trump still has a narrow path to victory.
It is likely that the Republicans have held the Senate majority despite what appears to be a close loss at the top of the ticket. Defending 13 of the most vulnerable 16 Senate seats, the GOP may break even. Converting Alabama and leading in Michigan offsets the loss of seats in Arizona and Colorado. Four races remain undecided.
Republicans had a much better night in the House than expected. With 43 races still uncalled, a reasonable projection suggests the Democrats will return to the House with a majority margin approximately seven seats less than in the current Congress. This would make the new majority 226D-209R, and certainly put House control front and center for the 2022 election cycle.
In the 11 Governor’s races, we saw one state flip from Democrat to Republican, the open Montana race that completed a Republican sweep of the top four statewide offices. At-Large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) was elected the state’s new Governor replacing term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock (D) who lost the Senate race to incumbent Steve Daines (R).
Polling and predictions generally proved unreliable. Once more, the big leads projected for the Democratic presidential nominee in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin did not materialize, while cumulative polling projections did correctly forecast Arizona and potentially Georgia. For the fourth consecutive major statewide race in Florida, the overwhelming number of pollsters failed to correctly project the winner.
It appears the cumulative polling community is potentially wrong in several Senate races including North Carolina, Maine, and the Michigan margin even if Sen. Gary Peters (D) rebounds to win. They also consistently under-estimated Georgia Sen. David Perdue’s electoral strength.
The media projection early in the evening of Democrats gaining seats in the House also proved incorrect.
The projected record turnout may not be as high as many projected. While it is clear we will exceed the 136,792,535 voters we saw in 2016, which was a record participation level at the time, the grand total in this election may not reach the 150 million mark that many analysts were suggesting, and very likely not the 155 million others predicted. We are likely to venture beyond 140 million, but how much further remains to be seen when all of the states have reported, and ballots completely tabulated.
We will have further coverage of the finer details in the coming days.
Three presidential polls were released in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania yesterday with wide-ranging results. Ipsos/Reuters (10/20-26; 655 PA likely voters; online) finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 53-44%. YouGov (10/13-21; 736 PA registered voters; online) sees a similar 51-44% split in Biden’s favor. Insider Advantage, on the other hand (10/25; 400 PA likely voters; live interview & interactive voice response system) shows President Trump forging a three-point edge, 48-45%.
Despite the last two polls giving challenger Eugene DePasquale (D) a lead over incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg), a new Tarrance Group survey for the National Republican Congressional Committee (10/13-15; 400 PA-10 likely voters; live interview) sees the Congressman returning to the lead in a district that the state Supreme Court re-drew in 2017 as a more Democratic seat.
The Tarrance results find Rep. Perry holding a four-point edge, 48-44%. Mr. DePasquale is the Pennsylvania State Auditor who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position. Both men have raised similar amounts, each obtaining more than $3.2 million for their respective campaigns.
The 2017 court ordered redistricting plan gave Republicans some hope they could win the re-drawn 8th District that is anchored in the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre areas. Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) lost a large number of Democratic voters when the city of Easton was removed from his district. Now, a new co/efficient firm poll (10/13-14; 615 PA-8 likely voters; interactive voice response & text) finds challenger Jim Bognet (R) within striking distance of Rep. Cartwright, trailing 43-48%.
While President Trump trails Joe Biden in the latter man’s birthplace, 46-48%, the most interesting question on this 8th District survey may be the “neighbors” query. When asking the respondent to speculate upon who his or her neighbors may support for President, the margin was 51-34% in favor of the President. Pollsters often ask the “neighbors” question as a way of potentially quantifying the “shy” Trump voter. With such a wide disparity when comparing the ballot test with the “neighbors” question, suggests this may be an indicative example of President Trump scoring many more votes than his polling projects in this northeastern Pennsylvania region.
After seeing four consecutive polls during the summer months that posted Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) to leads between 12 and 16 percentage points, two new Democratic polls bring the race back into toss-up range.
The Global Strategy Group (10/1-4; 400 PA-1 likely voters; live interview), for the Christina Finello campaign, finds the Congressman’s lead dropping to only 47-45%. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling (10/6-7; 569 PA-1 voters; automated response device) actually sees Ms. Finello slipping past the incumbent and into a one-point lead, 47-46%. Based upon the closer polling results, the House Majority PAC has committed a $1.2 million expenditure to help Ms. Finello’s efforts, the first of outside organization expenditures in this campaign.
Keystone State Sen. Pat Toomey (R) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2022, which isn’t a particular surprise since he indicated during the 2016 campaign that his second would likely be his final term. The second part of his announcement contained a surprise in that he was expected to run for Governor in the next cycle because incumbent Tom Wolf (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Sen. Toomey said he will not be on the ballot for any office in the next election cycle. This means we will see a free-for-all among potential Republican statewide office seekers with the two top positions coming open.
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