When Sen. Bob Corker (R) made no promised announcement at the end of last week about whether he would seek re-election after previously announcing his retirement, it became relatively clear that he had decided not to re-enter the 2018 campaign.  Yesterday, Sen. Corker made the presumed decision official, and he will continue toward political retirement when his current terms ends.  With former US Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) withdrawing earlier, US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood), at least for the moment, is unopposed for the Republican nomination.  Such is an unusual occurrence in an open seat race.
 
Candidate filing runs through April 5th, so others have time to jump into the race.  With polls, however, showing Ms. Blackburn crushing even Sen. Corker in a Republican primary, it appears that the eight-term Congresswoman is fast becoming a consensus GOP candidate.  This means she will soon begin active campaigning against the united Democrats’ candidate, former Gov. Phil Bredesen.

--Jim Ellis

Former state Senate President Pro Tempore Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) won the GOP special primary last night and now becomes the heavy favorite to replace resigned Rep. Trent Franks (R-Peoria) in the April 24th special general election.  Ms. Lesko attracted 36% of the closed Republican primary vote.  Ex-state Rep. Phil Lovas (R-Glendale) and former state Sen. Steve Montenegro (R-Surprise), whose sex texting messages to a state Senate staff member came into the public view during the campaign, both finished with 24% of the vote.   Former Public Service Commissioner Bob Stump, no relation to the late US Rep. Bob Stump (R-AZ) who served 26 years in the House, finished with just 5% of the vote.
 
Democrats easily nominated physician Hiral Tipirneni to advance into the special general.  She scored a 60-40% victory over auto sales manager and LGBT activist Brianna Westbrook.   Over 36,000 people voted in the Democratic primary, a large increase over past similar elections.  But, Republican turnout topped 71,000, thus reflecting the majority party’s large advantage here.

--Jim Ellis

Former Rep. Joe Baca (D-Rialto) served in Congress upon winning a special election in 1999 all the way through 2012.  Before that, he had been elected to the state Senate and Assembly.  After the redistricting commission split his congressional district in the 2011 re-draw, Mr. Baca decided to run in the new 35th District even though his political base in the city of Rialto was placed in the 31st CD.  After topping the jungle primary field, the Congressman lost the double-Democratic general election to then-state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod, 56-44%.  He would return to lose two more consecutive congressional campaigns in District 31, in addition to badly falling in a 2015 race for Mayor of Fontana. 
 
This week, Mr. Baca comes back to active campaigning yet again.  This time reverting to the 35th District, Mr. Baca will challenge Rep. Norma Torres (D-Pomona), the current incumbent.  Needless to say, the Congresswoman is favored for re-election.

--Jim Ellis

The open 2nd District (Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) running for Governor) now has an official party endorsed candidate.  Republicans met in convention and awarded the New Mexico Republican Party primary endorsement to state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo).  The move was a bit of a surprise because the convention delegates eschewed their former state chairman, Marty Newman.  Rep. Herrell received a whopping 69% of the GOP delegates’ support. 
 
New Mexico’s 2nd District occupies the state’s southern sector.  Rep. Pearce was initially elected in 2002, but left in 2008 to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.  He returned in 2010 to oust Democrat Harry Teague (D-Hobbs), who had succeeded him.  The 2nd supported President Trump with a 50-40% margin.  Candidate filing closed on February 6th, which yielded only two Democrats declaring themselves, surprising for an open seat.  College professor Madeline Hildebrandt and attorney Xochitl Torres-Small will square off for the party nomination.

--Jim Ellis

In early January, former US Rep. Doug Ose (R-Sacramento) announced that he would enter the open 2018 Governor’s campaign.  Now, less than two months later, he’s dropping out.  Republicans need a strong candidate just to qualify for the November ballot in the state’s top-two jungle primary format.  Again having two Democrats run against each other in the Governor’s general election will ostensibly make it more difficult for Republicans to turn out their voters for the down ballot campaigns, especially when fielding no Senate candidate, either. 
 
Orange County Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) now appears to be the Republicans’ best chance to qualify a November contender, but he will either have to place ahead of former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa or state Treasurer John Chiang (D) in order to continue his campaign.  Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appears to be a lock to finish first in the June 5th qualifying primary.  With the candidate filing deadline fast approaching on March 9th, more than 40 candidates could earn placement on the gubernatorial ballot.   Four-term Gov. Jerry Brown (D; 1975-83; 2011-present) is ineligible to seek re-election.

--Jim Ellis

The weekend came and went without Sen. Bob Corker (R) making an announcement about whether he would seek re-election after previously announcing his retirement.  Early last week, he said he would disclose his plans “in the next few days.”  At a TN Republican Party event on Saturday, however, Sen. Corker indicated that “nothing has changed” with regard to him reversing political course.  Therefore, at least for the present time, retirement remains in the Senator’s future.  The Tennessee candidate filing deadline is April 5th for the August 2nd primary, so more than a month remains for him to make a final decision. 
 
Irrespective of the Senator’s final decision, US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) is in the Senate race to stay.  Former US Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) has withdrawn his candidacy.

--Jim Ellis

Public Opinion Strategies, surveying for the Bill Schuette for Governor campaign (2/10-13; 800 MI previous Republican primary voters), finds the Attorney General in strong shape to capture the open GOP gubernatorial nomination.  According to the results, Mr. Schuette leads Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, 42-15%, with state Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-East Lansing) tallying only 5% support.  The Michigan primary isn’t until August 7th, so much time remains for change.  Former state House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer appears to be the leading Democratic candidate.  Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

Two Democrats announced yesterday that they are withdrawing from the open Governor’s race, even before it officially begins.  Former Bangor Mayor Sean Faircloth, who contemplated for a long while before announcing his candidacy, has quickly backtracked and will exit.  The same for ex-state Sen. James Boyle (D-Scarborough).  The departing pair still leaves the Democrats with a dozen candidates including Attorney General Janet Mills, former state House Speaker Mark Eves (D-North Berwick), and state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Westbrook).
 
Republicans feature five announced candidates, including state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R-Liberty), former Maine Health & Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew, state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon), and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Newport).  The candidate filing deadline is March 15th for the June 12th primary.

--Jim Ellis

Levi Sanders, son of US Senator and 2016 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders (I-VT), confirms that he is seriously considering entering the eastern New Hampshire open congressional district race.  Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester) is retiring after four non-consecutive terms.  The 1st District has defeated more incumbents than any seat in the country, returning just one to DC (Ms. Shea-Porter in 2008) since then-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) won re-election in 2004.  
 
Mr. Sanders, however, lives in the state’s 2nd District, which could become an issue in parochial New Hampshire.  Seven Democrats are already in the race, including Executive Councilor Chris Pappas, former NH state AFL-CIO president and state Rep. Mark MacKenzie (D-Bedford), and Rochester City Attorney Terence O’Rourke.   The general election is likely to become yet another toss-up campaign.

--Jim Ellis

Jon Ossoff (D), who made history in being the candidate for the country’s most expensive-ever congressional race (over $30 million through his campaign alone, not counting several more million in outside organization expenditures on his behalf) only to lose the June special election to current Rep. Karen Handel (R-Roswell), announced on Friday that he will not become a candidate in the regular election later this year. 
 
With the candidate filing deadline approaching on March 9th, it appears that former Atlanta TV anchorman Bobby Kaple, businessman Kevin Abel, and attorney Sam Levine, will comprise the Democratic field.  Though Mr. Ossoff will not be joining them, he pledges support for the eventual party nominee.   Considering the regular election voting history in this district, Ms. Handel begins her campaign for a first full term as the favorite to prevail in November.

--Jim Ellis