Despite Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) not yet scheduling the special election to replace the late Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-Rochester), one candidate’s internal survey was released late last week. 
 
Former news reporter Rachel Barnhart (D) publicized her Democratic primary poll (Gravis Marketing; released 4/26; 599 NY-25 Democratic registered voters; 410 likely voters) that projects state Assembly Deputy Majority Leader Joe Morelle (D-Rochester) to be leading the field with 36% followed by Ms. Barnhart at 21 percent.  Rochester City Councilman Adam McFadden and Brighton Town Board Member Robin Witt follow with 10 and 7%, respectively.  The Republicans are coalescing behind surgeon James Maxwell.  The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to succeed Rep. Slaughter when the election is ultimately scheduled.

--Jim Ellis

Attorneys for Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs), who the Colorado state Supreme Court struck from the ballot last week because of deficient signature petitions, will appear before a federal judge today attempting to reverse the decision on 1st Amendment grounds.  The state Supreme Court ruled that the Congressman’s consulting firm had employed petition circulators who were not state residents, a violation of Colorado election law.  Mr. Lamborn was first elected in 2006.  State Sen. Owen Hill (R-Colorado Springs) and El Paso County Commissioner and former US Senate nominee Darryl Glenn are both qualified for the Republican primary ballot.

--Jim Ellis

Congressional candidate Sean Casten, who won the Democratic nomination in March, released a Hart Research poll (4/21-23; 400 IL-6 likely general election voters) that finds Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) clinging to only a 45-44% lead.  The 6th District race is expected to be highly competitive despite Rep. Roskam winning many tough races in the past.  Back in 2006, the Congressman defeated now-Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) and he scored 58% and 59% in 2008 and 2012, respectively, the two years Illinois favorite son Barack Obama was scoring huge presidential percentages in his home state.

--Jim Ellis

On Friday, Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford) resigned his seat effective immediately.  Rep. Meehan had already announced he is not seeking re-election after it became public that a severance settlement was made from the controversial taxpayer funded congressional account.  The House Ethics Committee was about to begin an investigation, which now becomes moot considering that Mr. Meehan is no longer in Congress.  He said he will refund the $39,000 settlement within 30 days.
 
Now that the old 7th District is vacant, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) will be forced to call a special election even though this district will largely dissipate under the new court-mandated congressional boundaries.  While Gov. Wolf has no latitude about calling the election within ten days after the vacancy becomes official (last Friday), he does have wide ranging authority about when such a vote will occur.  Therefore, he could schedule the contest concurrent with the regular general election.  This will likely be his course of action for the 15th District special election that will also be required when Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) resigns in May.

--Jim Ellis

The open Georgia Governor’s race features two primary battles as the candidates move toward the May 22nd intra-party election.  If no candidate receives majority support in the first vote, run-off elections will be scheduled for July 24th. 
 
The University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs ran a survey (4/19-26; 507 likely GA Republican primary voters) and finds Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle opening up a large lead over Secretary of State Brian Kemp and former state Sen. Hunter Hill, 41-10-9%, respectively, in the Republican primary.  Earlier in the month, a similar poll was released on the Democratic side that found former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams topping ex-state Rep. Stacey Evans, 33-15%.  Two-term Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

--Jim Ellis

The Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California at Berkeley (4/16-22; 1,738 CA likely voters responding to an online survey) tested the California electorate and found a surprising result.  While Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) only captured 28% support when all 32 qualified candidates were listed on the survey questionnaire, as they will be on the official ballot, movement occurred from at least one down ballot candidate.
 
The second place finisher was former state Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) as expected, but at only 11%.  The individual in third place, however, coming from the lower tier of candidates and trailing de Leon by just one percentage point, is Republican James Bradley who is running on an “America First” platform and against the sanctuary cities concept.  This poll’s online nature suggests a very high error factor.   Considering that Bradley has little money in this most expensive of political states, it remains highly probable that the jungle primary sends Sen. Feinstein and state Sen. de Leon to the general election.

--Jim Ellis

Just a day after losing the special congressional election to former state Senate President Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria), physician Hiral Tiperneni, the Democratic special election nominee who drew 47% of the vote, announced that she will become a candidate for the regular term.  Arizona candidate filing closes on May 30th with the regular state primary scheduled for August 28th.  With a more regular voting pattern likely to occur for the general election, Rep-Elect Lesko’s support preference should increase at least into the high 50s.

--Jim Ellis

The Glengariff Group, polling for the Greater Detroit Regional Chamber PAC (4/20-22; 400 MI likely Democratic primary voters; 4/19-21; 400 MI likely Republican primary voters) produced a surprising result.  Though former state House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer has gained the Democratic establishment’s support, businessman Shri Thanedar has grabbed the lead in the primary race according to the GG results.  They find Mr. Thanedar’s margin to be 30-26%, the result of an early advertising campaign that has boosted his name identification to 75%.  Thanedar is racking up large margins in the city of Detroit and Wayne County, which accounts for his early success. 
 
On the Republican side, the results were more in line with conventional thought.  There, Attorney General Bill Schuette leads Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, 36-23%.

--Jim Ellis

The Strategic National survey research organization (4/21; 350 MI likely GOP primary voters) tested the Senate Republican primary and found venture capitalist Sandy Pensler leading manufacturing business owner John James, 26-13%.  With just over three months to go before this August 7th primary culminates, the race for the GOP nomination appears wide open.  The winner will face Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), who is running for a fourth term.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Mellman Group poll (see NV-Senate above) also tested the open Nevada Governor’s race.  The poll paired Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the likely Republican nominee, and Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D), and then fellow Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (D).
 
Against Sisolak, Mr. Laxalt jumps out to a 43-37% edge.  If Ms. Giunchigliani becomes the Democratic nominee, the Laxalt lead would diminish to 40-38%.

--Jim Ellis