The Maine Republican gubernatorial race to replace term-limited Gov. Paul LePage (R) got more crowded late this week.  State Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon Falls) announced that he will run for Governor, joining former Health & Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Newport) in the GOP primary.   In the meantime, Sen. Susan Collins (R) says she will make her decision about running for Governor public sometime in early October. 
 
The Mason candidacy now means three contenders are all vying for the most conservative part of the Maine Republican base.  Splitting the vote this many ways could provide Sen. Collins a better opening to the nomination since conservative primary voters, a group not inclined to back the veteran US Senator, will be badly fractured.  Nine Democrats, including Attorney General Janet Mills and former state House Speaker Mark Eves are actively running for the party nomination.

--Jim Ellis

Ever since Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) announced that she will retire when the current Congress concludes, many Democrats have filed exploratory committees, began seeking endorsements, and talked about running, but none have made the final declaration…until this week.  On Wednesday, businessman Abhijit Das, CEO of Troca Hotels, announced that he will officially enter the Democratic primary.  Likely to do so are Dan Koh, former chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, state Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D-Andover), Cambridge City Councilman Nadeem Mazen, and former congressional aide Lori Trahan.  For the Republicans, only business owner Rick Green has come forward to announce his candidacy. 
 
Democrats are favored to hold the seat, but the race could become competitive since Republican Gov. Charlie Baker will be stirring up GOP turnout in this central/east Massachusetts district, an area that must come through for him in a major way if he is to win re-election as expected.

--Jim Ellis

Things are beginning to move quickly in the race to replace retiring Volunteer State Sen. Bob Corker (R).  While many Republicans and a few Democrats are making some preliminary moves regarding the new open political contest, three prominent figures have now removed themselves from consideration.  In a blow to the Democrats, former Gov. Phil Bredesen, US Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville), and current Nashville Mayor Megan Barry all say they will not enter the open Senate race.   Conversely, for Republicans, Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is now publicly saying that he is considering becoming a Senate candidate.

--Jim Ellis

Las Vegas US Rep. Dina Titus (D) had been purposefully not closing the door over entering the 2018 Senate race to challenge Sen. Dean Heller (R), and also fellow Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) for the Democratic nomination.  Now, however, Ms. Titus’ plans are clear.  On Wednesday, the Congresswoman announced that she will seek re-election to her 1st District seat, thereby removing herself from any further discussion about a US Senate bid.  The move means we will almost assuredly see a Heller-Rosen general election next year.  This race will likely be considered a toss-up all the way through Election Day.

--Jim Ellis

Now that Sen. Bob Corker (R) has announced he won’t seek re-election, renewed speculation is beginning to surface that he is considering entering the open Governor’s race.  When asked, the Senator indicated that it “…would have been good to think about that a year ago,” in reference to forming a gubernatorial campaign, but also did not fully close the door on running.  With Gov. Bill Haslam (R) ineligible to seek a third term, the state’s top political position will be open in 2018. 
 
Among the top Republicans already in the Governor’s race are House Budget Committee chair Diane Black (R-Gallatin), former state Sen. Mae Beavers (R-Wilson County), ex-state Economic Development Commissioner Randy Boyd, and state House Speaker Beth Harwell (R-Nashville).  For the Democrats, former Nashville Mayor Karl Deen and state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh (D-Ripley) are the announced candidates.

--Jim Ellis

Cherry Communications, the regular pollster for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, went into the field after Hurricane Irma to test the potential Senate race between three-term incumbent Bill Nelson (D) and Gov. Rick Scott (R).  For the first time, possibly due to receiving high marks for his handling of the Hurricane Irma catastrophe, Gov. Scott has pulled ahead of Sen. Nelson.  According to the Cherry poll (9/17-24; 615 FL likely voters via telephone interviews), Gov. Scott now maintains a small 47-45% edge over Sen. Nelson.  In previous polls, it was Sen. Nelson who posted a small lead. 
 
Gov. Scott has yet to announce his Senate challenge, but the fact that no other Republican is coming forward to make the race tells us clearly that he will do so.  The Governor says he is in no hurry to enter the race and may wait well into next year before officially entering.  The Florida primary is not until August 28th, so the primary election cycle is long in duration.

--Jim Ellis

The Granite State is one of only two domains that still mandate only two-year terms for its Governors.  Therefore, even though Gov. Chris Sununu (R) was just elected in November he must stand for re-election next year. 
 
Previously, Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky (D) had been looking seriously at entering the gubernatorial campaign, but has now decided against running.  He made the announcement yesterday.  This still leaves only former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand as the lone official Democratic candidate.  New Hampshire has the most unpredictable electorate in the country so no elected official can be considered politically safe.  We can expect a competitive gubernatorial race here next year regardless of who eventually becomes Gov. Sununu’s Democratic opponent.

--Jim Ellis

A day after Sen. Bob Corker (R) announced that he would not seek a third term, potential Republican candidates are beginning to make early moves about seeking the party nomination.  Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) appears days away from getting into the race.  And, with more than $3 million in her campaign account, she has the ability to hit the ground running.  Former Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) is also saying that he will make a decision quickly, and seems to be leaning toward becoming a candidate.  He left Congress with over $2 million in his campaign account. 
 
Former state Rep. Joe Carr (R), who previously challenged Sen. Lamar Alexander in the 2014 Republican primary, a race where the former drew 41% of the vote against the veteran incumbent, is also inching toward the race and says he will soon make an announcement.  Now speculation begins to swirl around term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam who now may be contemplating hopping into the Senate race.   Within a day, this open seat race is perhaps becoming the most interesting statewide campaign in the country.

--Jim Ellis

Judy Canales, the former Texas Director for the US Department of Agriculture under President Obama, announced that she will enter the growing field of Democrats who want to challenge two-term Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio).  Previously, Ms. Canales had filed a fundraising committee with the Federal Election Commission but stopped short of making a formal declaration of candidacy. 
 
Also in the Democratic race is attorney Jay Hulings, Bernie Sanders campaign activist and former San Antonio City Council candidate Rick Trevino, ex-US Trade official and Iraq War veteran Gina Ortiz Jones, and dentist Alma Arredondo-Lynch.  Former Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Alpine), who has lost the last two campaigns to Mr. Hurd, announced earlier that he will not be a congressional candidate in 2018.

--Jim Ellis

As the polls predicted, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore unseated appointed Sen. Luther Strange last night in the special Republican run-off election.   Judge Moore, now as the Republican nominee, advances to the special general election where he will face former US Attorney Doug Jones (D) in a vote scheduled for December 12th.   The winner will serve through 2020 and be eligible to seek a full six-year term in that particular election year.   Sen. Strange, who was appointed from his position as state Attorney General, will serve through the special general election.  Run-off turnout increased 13.5% from the primary, and topped 480,000 voters.  By contrast, just 165,006 Democratic voters nominated Mr. Jones back in August.  Though Democrats will likely make a major push in the special general, Judge Moore begins the race against Jones as a clear favorite.

--Jim Ellis