During the September 12-23 period, a quintet of polls were conducted and recently released. Pollsters from Monmouth University, Public Policy Polling, Roanoke College, Christopher Newport University, and Fox News conducted surveys with sample sizes ranging from 499 (Monmouth) to 776 (Christopher Newport) individuals. All five find both Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie within the 40s. The best poll for Gillespie, from Fox News, finds the two tied at 42%. The strongest for Lt. Gov. Northam comes from Christopher Newport that gives him a six-point edge (47-41%).
--Jim Ellis With Independent Gov. Bill Walker already seeking re-election as a nominee of neither major party, another GOP outsider has stepped forward. Energy company business owner and BIPAC chairman Scott Hawkins declared his candidacy this week, expanding the GOP field to three candidates. The other two serious contenders are former state Senate President Charlie Huggins (R-Wasilla) and state Rep. Mike Chenault (R-Nikiski). Due to a medical condition, state Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R-Wasilla) has withdrawn from the statewide race. Former US Sen. Mark Begich (D) has not ruled out entering the Democratic gubernatorial primary.
--Jim Ellis Tennessee’s Bob Corker (R) yesterday became the first in-cycle Senator to announce that he will not seek re-election next year. Earlier, the head of Tennessee’s Americans for Prosperity chapter, Andy Ogles, had announced a primary challenge, and several million had already been pledged in hopes of denying Mr. Corker re-nomination. But, there is little evidence to suggest that a challenge is the fundamental reason for the Senator’s retirement decision.
Now as an open seat, observers look to possible Corker successors. A movement is forming to encourage former Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) to become a Senate candidate. The Congressman retired before the 2016 election because of a family illness, a situation that has improved. Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) already confirms that she is considering entering the newly open statewide campaign. The new development also may encourage Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen, the Democrats’ top recruitment prospect, to declare his candidacy. Republicans are favored to hold, but this campaign has suddenly become more interesting. --Jim Ellis Republican National Committee chair Ronna Romney McDaniel made it clear yesterday that she will not enter the open 11th Congressional District race, since Michigan Rep. David Trott (R-Birmingham) previously made his decision not to seek a third term. In the race are Republican former one-term Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford), state Rep. Klint Kesto (R-Pontiac), former state House Minority Leader and US Senate nominee Rocky Raczkowski, and businesswoman Lena Epstein who was Michigan co-chairman of Trump for President. Former Treasury Department official Haley Stevens and ex-Homeland Security appointee Fayrouz Saad are the announced Democratic candidates. The Detroit suburban seat leans Republican.
--Jim Ellis A new Suffolk University poll (9/19-23; 500 NJ likely voters) tested the 2017 general election gubernatorial candidates. This poll, like others before it, shows former US Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy (D) continuing to lead Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) by substantial margins. According to this latest data, Mr. Murphy’s advantage is 44-25%. In the only potential opening Guadagno may have, Mr. Murphy’s trust factor appears low and the top issue is high taxes - levies that the Democratic nominee has already said he would support raising.
--Jim Ellis Democratic former House member John Barrow (D-Savannah) served five terms in Congress before his defeat at the hands of current Rep. Rick Allen (R-Augusta) in 2014. While it was believed that he would return to elective politics, up until this weekend he had not. Now, the former Representative is making a political comeback. Mr. Barrow just announced that he will enter Georgia’s open Secretary of State race next year.
--Jim Ellis It appears the GOP will field at least two strong gubernatorial candidates, each vying to challenge first-term incumbent Gina Raimondo (D) next November. Cranston Mayor Allen Fung, who lost to Raimondo 41-36% with three Independents splitting the remaining votes, is telling supporters he will run again and soon make a formal announcement. State House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan announced her candidacy this week meaning a significant primary will commence. Joe Trillo, President Trump’s former Rhode Island campaign chairman, is also in the race but his viability as a candidate is unclear at this point in time. Gov. Raimondo has poor favorability ratings and, with only a 41% victory percentage four years ago, this could become a competitive campaign.
--Jim Ellis Alabama voters go to the polls today to choose a Republican nominee for the December 12th special Senate general election. The eventual winner serves the balance of the current term that will run through 2020. As we remember, this seat went to appointment followed by a special election calendar when then-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) resigned to become US Attorney General. All polls find former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore leading appointed incumbent Luther Strange, despite President Trump and the Republican establishment pulling out all the figurative stops to elect their choice.
Judge Moore may well win the run-off, however, because of his strength within the state’s large evangelical community, a group that the Census Bureau reports comprises just about half of the entire state’s population. Most polls find Moore ahead by double-digits, so Strange’s major voter turnout effort and media blitz, augmented by more than $2 million from outside group supporters in the last two weeks alone, may not be able to close all of the detected deficit. --Jim Ellis Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) retiring from this marginal district makes the seat highly competitive next year. Over the weekend, state Senator Dino Rossi (R-Kirkland), a former gubernatorial and US Senate candidate announced he would seek the open congressional seat, giving Republicans their top recruitment prospect. Mr. Rossi first came to national notoriety in 2004, when he forced then-Attorney General Christie Gregoire (D) into a major re-count, consuming weeks, and ending in him losing the statewide contest by just 129 votes statewide. He returned to challenge then-Gov. Gregoire in 2008, resulting in a 53-47% loss. In a subsequent contest with Sen. Patty Murray (D), Mr. Rossi fell, but by a very respectable 52-48% against the veteran incumbent. In each case, the new Republican congressional candidate carried the 8th District.
Eight Democrats had previously announced for the seat, but only one had ever won an election, and that to a small local office. We can expect several elected Democratic officials to soon come forward to enter this race. King County Councilman Reagan Dunn (R), son of the late US Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R), was also considering running for the House seat but said he would yield to Mr. Rossi. Republicans uniting behind Rossi, which appears to be happening, will aid their ability to retain the open seat. --Jim Ellis |
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