Previously, an early August Phillips Academy poll projected Republican Herschel Walker to be holding a slight 45-44% lead over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) after trailing in seven of eight July surveys. Yesterday, Emerson College released the result of their most recent Georgia survey (8/28-29; 600 GA likely general election voters; interactive voice response system, text, and online), which found Mr. Walker posting an almost identical 46-44% edge, again providing more evidence that this race is a long way from being over.
In mid-August, when St. Anselm College released a survey showing retired Army General and 2020 US Senate Republican candidate Don Bolduc developing a substantial lead for the September 13th GOP Senate primary, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) went public in an attempt to negate his advantage. Many believe, including Gov. Sununu, that Gen. Bolduc would lose to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in November. Previously, Gen. Bolduc had accused Gov. Sununu of being “a Chinese communist sympathizer,” among other comments that created bad blood between the two men.
Yesterday, the University of New Hampshire (8/25-29; 892 NH likely Republican primary voters; online) reported the results of their new statewide survey. According to the UNH Granite State Poll, Gen. Bolduc continues to lead state Senate President Chuck Morse (R-Salem) by over 20 points, 43-22%, with three other candidates languishing in low single digits.
The aforementioned Emerson College survey (see Georgia Senate above) also tested the Peach State Governor’s race between incumbent Brian Kemp (R) and challenger Stacey Abrams (D) who returns for a re-match from their close 2018 contest. The Emerson results give Gov. Kemp a 48-44% edge, which appears as a consistent margin routinely found in eleven of twelve July-August polls in which the incumbent held an edge. The lone outlier poll, a Research Affiliates study that concluded on August 1st, found the two candidates tied at 47% apiece.
Gov. Henry McMaster (R) succeeded then-Gov. Nikki Haley (R) when she resigned her office in 2017 to become US Ambassador to the United Nations. Mr. McMaster would then win a full term in 2018, and now seeks re-election. Because of the state’s former one and now two-term limit, winning re-election this year and serving most of the next term would make Mr. McMaster the longest-serving Governor in state history.
The Trafalgar Group, as part of their nationwide polling series (8/25-28; 1,071 SC likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested the Palmetto State electorate and sees Gov. McMaster jumping out to a 51-43% lead over former Congressman Joe Cunningham, who won the Democratic nomination back in the June primary. Four years ago, Gov. McMaster was re-elected with a 54-46% margin.
A busy night occurred around the country and particularly in the Sunshine State, as the political parties chose nominees in key statewide races and for Florida’s 28 newly drawn congressional districts. Thus, the last major primary date is now in the books.
The Florida statewide races were not in particular doubt. While Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio were unopposed in their respective Republican primaries, Congressman and former Governor Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) easily defeated Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, 60-35%, to claim the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), as expected, was an easy 84% winner in the Democratic US Senate primary.
The competitive House primary winners were: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R; 70-24% victory margin), Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean (R; 68-26%; created open seat), Cory Mills (R; 34-21%; open Stephanie Murphy seat), Maxwell Alejandro Frost (D; 35-25%; open Val Demings seat), Rep. Dan Webster (R; 51-44%), Anna Paulina Luna (R; 44-34%; open Charlie Crist seat), Laurel Lee (R; 41-28%; new seat from reapportionment), Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D; 66-29%), Jared Moskowitz (D; 61-21%; open Ted Deutch seat), state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D; 68-26%; versus Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar), and ex-state Rep. Robert Asencio (D; 69-31%; versus Rep. Carlos Gimenez).
The very active New York congressional primary begins with a special general election win for the Democrats. In a race many believed the Republican nominee, Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro would covert, Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan successfully held the 19th CD in the Democratic column with a close 52-48% win. Mr. Ryan will now serve the unexpired portion of former Rep. Antonio Delgado’s term. The latter man resigned the seat to accept his appointment as Lt. Governor.
Curiously, Mr. Ryan will seek his re-election in the 18th District as he ran for both seats simultaneously. There, he will face state Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R-New Windsor) who was unopposed in the open seat Republican primary. Former congressional aide John Riley won the 19th Democratic primary and now advances into the regular general election against Mr. Molinaro.
Another incumbent pairing was also decided last night. Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan) easily defeated Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan), 55-24%, thus ending the Congresswoman’s 30-year congressional career. Mr. Nadler had led in all polling, hence the final result is not surprising, though the size of his victory is greater than expected.
Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) resigned his seat to accept a position in the private sector earlier this year. The Republican caretaker candidate, Steuben County Republican Party chairman Joe Sempolinski, won the special election to serve the balance of the term. He scored a 53-47% win over Democrat Max Della Pia. The latter man, however, won the regular election Democratic primary and he moves into the general election.
The competitive House primary winners were: Nick LaLota (R; 47-28%; open Lee Zeldin seat), Robert Zimmerman (D; 36-26%; open Tom Suozzi seat; versus George Santos), Lauren Gillen (D; 63-24%; open Kathleen Rice seat), Dan Goldman (D; 26-24%; created open seat), Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R; 78-21%; in general versus ex-Rep. Max Rose), Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D; 57-23%), Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D; 67-33%; in general versus state Assemblyman Michael Lawler), Brandon Williams (R; 58-42%; in general versus Francis Conole; open John Katko seat), Nick Langworthy (R; 52-48%; regular election successor to Rep. Tom Reed), and Rep. Claudia Tenney (R; 54-40%).
As expected, US Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) scored a landslide special election Republican runoff victory, 65-35%, over former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. Mr. Mullin advances into the special general election where he will be favored to defeat former US Rep. Kendra Horn (D). The winner will replace resigning Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) in January and serve the remaining four years of the current term.
In Rep. Mullin’s now open 2nd Congressional District, the primary’s second-place finisher, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen, won the Republican runoff with a 52-48% win over favored state Rep. Avery Frix (R-Muskogee). In Oklahoma’s safest Republican seat, rated R+55, Mr. Brecheen is now a prohibitive favorite to defeat Democratic nominee Naomi Andrews in the general election.
A pair of polls was recently released, and each shows a different leader. The University of North Florida released their survey (8/8-12; 1,624 FL registered voters; online) and surprisingly found Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) leading incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R) by a 48-44% clip, the first time any poll had shown a result such as this since early May. In six polls since that time, Sen. Rubio had led in four with two dead heat ties.
Simultaneously, the Center Street PAC surveyed the Florida electorate (8/12-14; 610 FL likely voters) and found a completely different result. This poll projects Sen. Rubio to a 52-41% likely voter advantage, and a smaller 46-39% edge among the larger pool of 996 Florida registered voters. These two polls, conducted within the same relative time frame, show the volatility in the current race, which is typical for Florida election polling. Republican votes are also usually slightly under-counted in Sunshine State polls, as well.
After seeing a series of six statewide polls that projected Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) to be holding a small lead over author J.D. Vance (R), the new Emerson College survey sees a GOP rebound. The Emerson poll (8/15-16; 925 OH likely general election voters) finds Mr. Vance reversing the field to claim a three-point 45-42% edge.
The results are to be expected. Rep. Ryan developed a lead when spending $7+ million on early advertising with no counter from Vance or Republican outside groups. Now beginning to promote their message, we see a new survey reflecting Vance in a better position. Typically, the Ohio electorate polls close until the final weeks when one candidate pulls away, usually the Republican, and wins the race going away.
Still recovering from a major stroke suffered right before the May 17th Pennsylvania primary, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman returned to the campaign trail late last week. This week, a new poll shows him expanding his lead over television doctor Mehmet Oz (R). Public Opinion Strategies released the results of their new August survey conducted for the Pittsburgh Works Together organization (8/7-10; 600 PA registered voters; live interview) that posts Mr. Fetterman to a 52-36% lead over Dr. Oz. This 16-point spread represents the largest polling margin of this campaign.
The Rundown Blog
Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.