RMG Research, conducting their series of polls around the country for US Term Limits (7/31-8/6; 400 VA-7 likely voters) finds two-term Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) leading Prince William County Supervisor Vesli Vega (R) by a 46-41% margin, suggesting we will see a highly competitive campaign effort from both sides throughout the remaining part of the general election cycle. Though upside-down in job approval in the 7th CD, President Biden’s ratio is better than in most places, 48:51% positive to negative. The Biden factor should be less of a drain on Rep. Spanberger than it may prove on certain Democratic candidates in other places.
The aforementioned Public Opinion Strategies survey (see Pennsylvania Senate above) also tested the open PA Governor’s race. The ballot test on this contest favors Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro over Republican state Senator Doug Mastriano (R-Fayetteville) by a strong 51-37% margin, slightly less than the Senate Democratic spread, but more than enough to secure a comfortable victory.
With just under 70% of the voting tabulated, and as expected by consolidating the smaller Democratic vote, former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is leading the special election race to fill the state’s at-large congressional district left vacant when veteran Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) passed away in March.
Former Governor and Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin (R) holds a 5,266 vote lead over Nick Begich, III (R) for the all-important second place position. Under Alaska’s new voting procedure, ballots postmarked yesterday have until August 31st to reach the county clerk’s office and be tabulated. The extra time is important for the outlying rural areas to be included. Second position is so important because the third-place finisher in this electoral situation, at this point Mr. Begich, will be eliminated and the Ranked Choice Voting process will begin. If Begich is eliminated, the ballots listing him as the first choice will be found and the second choice votes from only these ballots will be added to the process. The eventual winner will immediately be sworn into the House. All three of the aforementioned candidates also advanced into the regular general election. Turning to the US Senate race, incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R), running for a fourth full term, is first at this point in the counting process with 43.7% of the vote among 19 jungle primary candidates, and just ahead of former Alaska Director of Administration Kelly Tshibaka (R), who former President Trump long ago endorsed. Ms. Tshibaka’s current vote percentage is 40.4. It appears Democrat Patricia Chesbro (6.2%) is well-positioned to take a distant third place, while vying for the fourth and final position is between Republicans Buzz Kelley and Pat Nolin. In the Governor’s race, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) looks to have secured first position with 41.7% of the jungle primary vote among ten candidates. Also clinching general election ballot slots are former state Representative Les Gara (D) with 22.0% of the vote, and ex-Gov. Bill Walker (I) who so far has posted a close 21.9%. The final general election qualifying position appears undecided between two Republicans, Charlie Pierce and Christopher Kurka. Early in the counting process, At-Large Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson) lost her US House seat at the hands of attorney Harriet Hageman, the candidate former President Donald Trump supported early.
The vote count was a landslide for Ms. Hageman, 66-29%, who ran a measured campaign. Her theme was concentrating on serving the constituency while highlighting that Rep. Cheney used the position to fulfill her own political goals. The incumbent carried only her home county of Teton, which houses the cities of Jackson and Jackson Hole, and southeastern Albany County, while Ms. Hagman topped the vote totals in the state’s other 21 counties. Republican turnout overwhelmed that of the Democrats, 170,409 to just 7,233 ballots cast, suggesting that a large number of the latter party’s members did what Ms. Cheney asked and crossed over to vote for her in the Republican primary. The GOP turnout was up 58.7% compared to 2020, while Democratic participation was down 30.7%, providing more evidence that a significant number of Democrats voted in the Republican primary. Two years ago, Ms. Cheney won a contested Republican primary with 73.5% of the vote, and scored a 68.6% win in the general election. Ms. Hageman will now face the new Democratic nominee, Native American community activist Lynette Grey Bull, the 2020 party standard bearer against Ms. Cheney. Ms. Hageman now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election. St. Anselm’s College released the results of their quarterly poll of Granite State voters, this one taken a month before the state’s late primary election. This New Hampshire sampling universe (8/9-11; 1,898 NH registered voters; 900 NH likely Republican primary voters; live interview), as have those from two other St. Anselm’s 2022 polls, sees President Biden with an upside-down job approval rating. Mr. Biden registers 42:57% favorable to unfavorable.
Republicans hold a three-point lead on the generic party vote questions, and 68% of the respondents believe the country is on the wrong track versus just 21% who believe America is headed in the right direction. Democrats have a clear advantage on the abortion issue by a 49-23% margin. In the Senate GOP primary, retired General and 2020 Senate candidate Don Bolduc holds a significant 32-16-4-4% advantage over state Senate President Chuck Morse (R-Salem), former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith, and investor Bruce Fenton. The co/efficient survey research firm tested the upcoming September 13th Republican congressional field in the state’s swing 1st District. New Hampshire’s eastern CD has defeated more incumbents than any seat in the country since the 2004 election.
In the Republican primary where candidates hope to challenge Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) in the general election, the survey (8/13-14; 829 NH-1 likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) projects 2020 nominee Matt Mowers to be leading the field with 31% support. Former Trump White House media aide Karoline Leavitt 16%, state Rep. Tim Baxter (R-Portsmouth) 9%, and former news reporter and wife of ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), Gail Huff Brown, at 8% preference. This district electorate will once again witness a highly competitive general election. Hawaii held its statewide primary on Saturday, and the results produced no surprises. In the defining Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Josh Green, a physician, easily defeated former Aloha State first lady Vicky Cayetano and US Rep. Kai Kahele (D-Hilo) in a landslide 64-21-14%, respectively. Mr. Green now becomes the prohibitive favorite to defeat Republican nominee, former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, who scored a majority victory in the GOP primary.
In the open 2nd House District race, former state Sen. Jill Tokuda recorded a 59-25% victory over state Rep. Patrick Branco (D-Kailua) and four others. She now becomes a lock to replace Rep. Kahele who risked his safe House seat for his long shot, and now proven unsuccessful, run for Governor. The Republican primary winner, with 83% of the vote, is 2020 GOP congressional nominee Joe Akana. He lost to Mr. Kahele 58-28% two years ago in the general election, and is likely headed to a similar fate later this year. Sen. Brian Schatz was an overwhelming winner in his Democratic primary, notching 94% of his party’s vote. He will face state Rep. Bob McDermott (R-Ewa), who won the Republican primary with a 41% plurality over four opponents. Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) also easily won renomination in his 1st District Democratic primary, with an 84-16% landslide over progressive left challenger Sergio Alcubilla. Democratic turnout overwhelmed that of Republicans. With ancillary counting remaining, a total of 218,523 individuals voted in the Democratic primary versus just 59,006 who chose the Republican contests. The Oklahoma Republican runoff election to advance into the November special election to replace resigning Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) will be decided on August 23rd. We now see two recently released surveys, both projecting US Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) leading former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon but by varying degrees.
The most recent, from Battleground Connect (7/31-8/1; 800 OK likely Republican special runoff voters; live interview) sees Rep. Mullin leading Mr. Shannon, 46-38%. Both men are viewed favorably. Rep. Mullin sports a 62:23% favorable ratio, while Mr. Shannon scores 48:15%, though fewer respondents know him well enough to form an opinion. The Sooner Poll conducted for News Channel 9 in Oklahoma City. The sampling period was longer and the sample size smaller than Battleground Connect’s (7/25-8/1; 383 OK likely Republican special runoff voters; live interview) and it produced an overwhelming advantage for Rep. Mullin, 63-35%. The Republican runoff winner will be favored to defeat former US Rep. Kendra Horn, who is the official Democratic Party nominee, in the November special general election. Former Trump ambassadorial appointee Leora Levy, though she failed to win Senate confirmation, easily won the Republican Senate nomination in Connecticut. Ms. Levy defeated former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides by a significant 51-40% share of the statewide vote. She now advances to challenge Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) who is seeking a third term.
Last night, Minnesota former state Rep. Brad Finstad (R) appears to have won the open 1st District special congressional election left vacant when Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) passed away in mid-February. At this writing, Mr. Finstad leads former Hormel corporation CEO Jeffrey Ettinger (D) 51-47% with all counties reporting and 99% of the expected vote tabulated.
Mr. Finstad holds a 4,920-vote lead over Mr. Ettinger, which should be more than enough to account for any mailed absentee ballot not included in the overall count. The currently recorded turnout of 118,018 votes is high for a special election. Mr. Finstad carried 16 of the district’s 21 southern Minnesota counties. Mr. Finstad also easily won the regular Republican primary in the 1st District after state Rep. Jeremy Munson (R-Crystal Lake) made a run at the nomination despite losing the special election primary back in late May. Following suit on the Democratic side, Mr. Ettinger was an easy winner in last night’s regular primary, so the two will again do battle in the regular term for a House seat that has been trending more Republican in recent years. In the 5th District, suggestions that former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels could give two-term controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) a highly competitive battle proved true. Rep. Omar was renominated in a 50-48% squeaker over Mr. Samuels, thus guaranteeing her another term in the November election. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|