As we know, the May 17th North Carolina primary featured Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) scoring a major 59-25% win over former Gov. Pat McCrory in the 2022 Republican US Senate primary. Immediately after, East Carolina University released the first post primary poll (5/19-20; 635 NC registered voters) that projected the Congressman leading Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley, the former state Supreme Court Chief Justice, by a 47-39% margin. This is well beyond the polling margin of error.
The Cygnal research group, then conducted a subsequent study for the Civitas Institute (5/21-22; 600 NC likely voters; live interview, text, & email). They also find Mr. Budd holding the advantage, but in only a small 44-42% spread. This result is a bit surprising when seeing that the same Cygnal poll posts President Biden with a heavily upside down 33:61% favorable to unfavorable job approval rating, the Republicans ahead on the congressional generic question, 50-43%, and the right track/wrong track question breaking 22:73%.
The Pennsylvania Republican Senate contest continues to drag on, and we probably won’t see a final determination until June 8th, the day the Secretary of State must certify the election. According to the Pennsylvania Secretary of State’s unofficial preliminary count, Dr. Mehmet Oz, who on Friday declared himself the “presumptive” nominee, leads former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, by 922 votes from 1,344,104 ballots cast, an astoundingly high number for a Keystone State Republican primary.
The mandatory recount is already underway. Once the totals are reported and the election certified, the challenges to individual votes may begin. Therefore, this political drama could go on for quite awhile longer. The Pennsylvania primary was May 17th.
Another of the political overtime races officially ended over the Memorial Day break. With the Clackamas County vote counting bar code problem finally being corrected, it became clear that seven-term Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) would not overcome his Democratic primary opponent’s early lead, and conceded the nomination to former local city manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner. The Oregon Secretary of State reports the McLeod-Skinner lead at 55.1 - 44.3% with 80,423 votes counted.
Ms. McLeod-Skinner will now face the new Republican nominee, former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in what will be the most competitive congressional seat in Oregon. The Democratic voting trends in the area favor Ms. McLeod-Skinner, but with a D+3 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, this seat becomes a 2022 Republican target.
Mr. Schrader becomes the fourth incumbent to be denied re-nomination joining Reps. David McKinley (R-WV), Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA).
Today is the last day that overseas votes can be received and counted for the Texas runoff elections that were held May 24th. Two South Texas congressional seats are without confirmed Democratic nominees, the open 15th CD and Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Laredo) 28th District.
Adjusted totals from two counties in the 15th give businesswoman Michelle Vallejo just a 27 vote lead over attorney and Iraq War veteran Ruben Ramirez in a low turnout election that features a universe of only 12,063 individuals. The 15th District Democratic winner will face Republican Monica de la Cruz, the 2020 GOP congressional nominee.
In the 28th, either Rep. Cuellar or Ms. Cisneros will battle Republican Cassy Garcia, a former South Texas aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Rep. Cuellar has declared victory, saying his 177 vote margin over attorney Jessica Cisneros will be sustained. Ms. Cisneros says she believes the final count will reverse his lead. The counties must report their final runoff numbers to the Secretary of State this Thursday, June 2nd.
Now over a week since the primary election and still no declared winner in the Republican Senate primary, Pennsylvania election authorities have already ordered election officials in the state’s 67 counties to begin the inevitable recount. Officials know the final unofficial count, which could be released as early as today or tomorrow, will be within the 1/2 percent that triggers an automatic recount.
The current totals find Dr. Mehmet Oz leading former hedge fund CEO David McCormick by 902 votes from more than 1.3 million ballots cast. The deadline for military, overseas, and provisional ballot reception was Tuesday. It is being reported that this is the closest primary in Pennsylvania’s modern political era.
Westchester County Legislator Catherine Parker (D) announced her intention to challenge Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) in the upcoming August 23rd Democratic primary. Another Westchester Legislator, Vedat Gashi (D), is already in the race. Ms. Parker says the new district lines move Mr. Gashi’s political base outside the district’s confines, hence her becoming a candidate. Irrespective of this activity, Rep. Bowman is favored for re-nomination and re-election in the new 16th CD.
After state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (D-Bronx) announced her Democratic primary challenge to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring), two Republicans have jumped into the new 17th District campaign, state Assemblyman Matt Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Rockland County Legislator Charles Falciglia.
The new 17th is rated D+7 through the FiveThirtyEight data organization’s calculations. While the seat clearly leans Democratic, Rep. Maloney has attracted a great deal of attention since he announced against freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) instead of running just north in what is now the open 18th CD. For his part, Mr. Jones is now running in the southwestern Manhattan/Brooklyn new 10th District.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already out with a new poll of the open PA-17 CD taken before the May 17th primary (5/9-10; 494 PA-17 likely voters; live interview & text). They project a 44-41% lead for their new nominee, election law attorney Chris Deluzio (D) over former local official Jeremy Shaffer, the new GOP nominee. When the DCCC first started releasing polling several years ago, the data was heavily slanted in their candidates’ favor, thus forfeiting credibility. In the last several years, however, their results have been closer to the mark, but still slightly slanted. Therefore, a DCCC poll finding Mr. Deluzio only ahead three points is a clear indication this race already begins in the toss-up realm.
Two electoral contests from Tuesday remain uncalled and are very tight. In the 28th District, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) holds only a 177 vote run-off lead over opponent Jessica Cisneros (D). The Secretary of State’s released results show all precincts reporting, meaning ancillary votes arriving in the mail and provisionals are likely the only ballots remaining. A recount will probably be requested, but based upon the trends of where the remaining ballots lie, it appears that Rep. Cuellar’s slim advantage will likely grow.
Staying in South Texas, the Democratic 15th District runoff between businesswoman Michelle Vallejo and attorney Ruben Ramirez leans toward the former by just 23 votes. The voter pool at this point, however, is just over 12,000 individuals, an extremely low participation total. The final ballots can clearly tip this race to either candidate. The eventual winner will face Republican 2020 nominee Monica de la Cruz. The general election campaign will likely begin as a toss-up. If the Democratic decision is drawn out over a long period, Ms. de la Cruz would be staked to a key advantage in the early general election period. The 538 rating for TX-15 is EVEN.
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), who Mr. Trump rescinded his endorsement because, at the time, it was viewed his campaign was going nowhere, rebounded to capture second position (29.2%) in the open US Senate Republican primary and advance to the June 21st runoff election. The first place finisher is former Business Council of Alabama President & CEO Katie Britt (44.7%). Both defeated retired “Black Hawk Down” pilot Mike Durant (23.3%), whose self-funded campaign fell short of the mark in what was an expensive three-way race.
In the contested Republican gubernatorial primary, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) won re-nomination with 54% of the vote against eight Republican opponents. Here, too, GOP turnout was much higher than the Democrats’ over 645,000 to 168,000. In both Georgia and Alabama, the Trump endorsements clearly lacked the punch we have seen in the other early primaries.
The Rundown Blog
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