Change Research reports conducting a series of online polls from Oct. 29 through Nov. 2 in various congressional districts. They are showing virtual tie scores in several toss-up districts heading into today’s voting:
AR-2: Rep. French Hill (R) vs. St. Sen. Joyce Elliott (D)
IN-5: Ex-St. Rep. Christina Hale (D) vs. St. Sen. Victoria Spartz (R)
MO-2: Rep. Ann Wagner (R) vs. St. Sen. Jill Schupp (D)
NE-2: Rep. Don Bacon (R) vs. Kara Eastman (D)
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) vs. Dana Balter (D)
OH-1: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. Kate Schroder (D)
OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D) vs. St. Sen. Stephanie Bice (R)
OK-5: Toss-Up to the End
The Oklahoma Sooner poll is out, and it shows that Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City) and state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) are battling to the end in what again appears to be a toss-up campaign. The Sooner Poll (10/16-20; 943 OK-5 likely voters; interactive voice response system) finds Rep. Horn leading Ms. Bice, 49-47%.
The Horn lead may not be as it seems, however, because she is getting 69% support among the youngest voters, those under 34 years of age who have the lowest turnout rates. Ms. Bice, on the other hand, leads among those over 50 years of age, the highest historical turnout group, by eight percentage points.
OK-5: Dueling Polls
Again, we see a political campaign where two pollsters test the electorate within basically the same time frame and come away with vastly different conclusions. The 5th District of Oklahoma is a traditionally Republican seat that Democrats converted in 2018 when now-freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D) unseated then-Rep. Steve Russell (R-Oklahoma City) in one of the biggest national upsets of that year.
Normington Petts & Associates, a Democratic polling firm, tested the race immediately after the August 30th Republican runoff election (8/31-9/3; 400 OK-5 likely voters; live interview) and projected Rep. Horn to be leading the new Republican nominee, state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City), by a 52-44% count.
When the Normington Petts poll was in its final stages, the Sooner Poll, a regular Oklahoma media pollster, went into the field with their questionnaire (9/2-10; 318 OK-5 likely voters; interactive voice response system) and saw Sen. Bice actually taking a one-point, 45-44%, lead. It is likely we will see a hard-fought race here as we enter the final weeks and days of this campaign cycle.
OK-5: First Poll
Yesterday, we reported that Oklahoma state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) scored a 53-47% win in Tuesday’s 5th Congressional District Republican runoff, thus officially beginning the general election opposite freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City), the first Democrat to hold this seat since 1974.
Before the runoff, but just released after Ms. Bice became the nominee, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (8/5-9; 500 OK-5 likely voters) gave Rep. Horn a 51-46% lead over Sen. Bice. Though the Republican state legislator trailed in this survey, it was taken before her victorious runoff campaign fully unfolded. The GQR data suggest the Horn-Bice November race is headed for the toss-up realm.
OK-5: Bice Wins Runoff
Oklahoma state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) scored a 53-47% win in the 5th Congressional District Republican runoff last night, defeating former Lt. Governor nominee Terry Neese who placed first in the June 30th Republican primary. Ms. Bice now advances into the general election to face freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City), the first Democrat to represent this seat since 1974. This will be one of the top congressional races in the country and a must-win seat for Republicans if they are to have any chance of re-claiming the majority they lost in 2018.
The Oklahoma 5th District electorate that supported President Trump with a 13-point, 53-40%, margin in 2016 is now the third strongest Trump district in the country that a Democrat represents in the US House.
OK-5: Runoff Today
Oklahoma City area voters cast their ballots today in the Republican runoff to choose a nominee to oppose freshman Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City). This race is a must-win for the Republicans if they are to have any chance of making a run at the House majority because OK-5 is one of the most Republican districts that flipped to the Democrats in 2018.
Former Lt. Governor nominee Terry Neese was the first-place finisher in the June 30th Republican primary, placing eleven points ahead of state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City). Though Sen. Bice has led the fundraising battle by just over $200,000, the Club for Growth’s independent expenditure has more than equalized Ms. Neese’s financial deficit since the organization has spent almost $1 million in negative ads targeting the state legislator. Regardless of who wins tonight, this contest becomes a top tier Republican challenge race tomorrow morning.
Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, which contains the state’s largest metro area of Oklahoma City, will see two Republicans advance into an August 25th runoff election. Former Lt. Governor nominee Terry Neese placed first in the crowded field of nine candidates, topping state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) by eleven percentage points. The eventual GOP nominee then challenges freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City) in a race that becomes a Republican must-win.
Oklahoma: Sen. Inhofe Renominated
Veteran Senator Jim Inhofe (R), who, at 85 years of age, is seeking a fifth full term, easily won his Republican primary last night with a 75% victory margin. His now-official Democratic challenger is former television report Abby Broyles, who easily became her party’s standard bearer last night. Sen. Inhofe is a heavy favorite for re-election in November.
Oklahoma: DCCC Sues
On the other end of the voting law spectrum, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Oklahoma Democratic Party have filed a federal lawsuit challenging the state’s absentee ballot law that requires an applicant to have their signature notarized. Earlier, the Oklahoma state Supreme Court ruled that the government document notarization law did not apply to absentee ballots, but the legislature quickly passed a new law specifically requiring notarization directly in response to the high court’s ruling.
Now, the plaintiffs have gone to federal court asking that the notarization requirement be eliminated, and then adding that the state should prepay all postage for mailed ballots, and that votes received up to a week after the election should be accepted and counted. Currently, Oklahoma law requires all absentee ballots to be received no later than Election Day.
Oklahoma: Candidate Filing Closes
The Oklahoma candidate filing deadline passed on April 10th, and Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) has drawn three Republican and four Democratic opponents, but none seem to be top tier candidates. For the Democrats, the likely nominee appears to be former television reporter Abby Broyles, but Sen. Inhofe remains a heavy favorite to again win re-election in November.
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