Washington: Another Close Gov Survey: Once again, we see more survey data predicting a tight open seat campaign, this time in the Washington Governor’s race. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute sees Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former US Representative and King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) advancing into the general election from the August 6th jungle primary. Messrs. Ferguson and Reichert recorded a respective 35-27-9% showing over Richland School Board member Semi Bird in the primary polling.
Though a previous PPP poll posted Mr. Reichert to a small lead, this sampling universe sees Mr. Ferguson inching ahead. The ballot test result favored the Democratic Attorney General within the polling margin of error, 46-44 percent. Maricopa County, Arizona: Retiring Congresswoman to Run for Local Office: GOP Congresswoman Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) may be retiring from Congress, but not from elective politics. Ms. Lesko announced that she will run this year for an open seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. The incumbent, Republican Clint Hickman who was re-elected four years ago with almost 59% of the vote, is retiring. Former President Trump carried the 4th Supervisorial District with 57% over President Biden in 2020. Each of the five county supervisors represent just over 900,000 people, just slightly larger than the size of a congressional district.
In recent election years several California US House members, then-Reps. Janice Hahn (D-Los Angeles), Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-San Bernardino), and Paul Cook (R-San Bernardino) also left the US House to run for a county board position. Reps. Hahn and Cook were successfully elected. Former Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D) is also a member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, but she was elected after serving as US Labor Secretary in the Obama Administration. Maryland: Hogan Doing Well in New Poll: A release from Emerson College (2/12-13; 1,000 MD registered voters; 543 likely Democratic primary voters; 246 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds former Governor Larry Hogan (R) tied with US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), who has already spent $23 million in attempting to win the Democratic Party nomination, at 42% apiece. He would lead Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 44-37%, if she were to become the Democratic nominee.
What is particularly surprising and may well not hold up once the campaign begins in earnest, is Mr. Hogan’s standing among Independent voters and even Democrats. If Mr. Trone were his general election opponent, Mr. Hogan would lead among Independents and rather stunningly attracts approximately one-quarter of Democratic voters. With Ms. Alsobrooks as his opponent, Mr. Hogan’s numbers are much better. Within this pairing, he would lead among Independents 43-18%, while converting 31% of Democratic voters. Montana: Rosendale’s Quick Exit: After months of speculation as to whether US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) would enter the Montana US Senate race culminating with his declaration of candidacy on February 9th, we now see a quick end. Yesterday, Mr. Rosendale announced that he will not file for the Senate, saying in a released statement that he has “been forced to calculate what my chances of success would be with Trump supporting my opponent.” On the day of Rosendale’s Senate announcement, Mr. Trump issued his endorsement of aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. Mr. Rosendale indicated he will take time to ponder his next political step. New York: Redistricting Commission Approves Cong Map: The New York Independent Redistricting Commission, on a vote of 9-1, yesterday adopted a new congressional map but it looks very much like the current court-drawn plan. It appears the Commissioners adopted a “least change” model in that the early reported change seems to adversely affect Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), at least slightly, but conversely helps adjacent Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook). Much more will be known about the map when statisticians delve into the partisan patterns of the new boundaries.
The “Independent Commission” is not so independent. The legislature must now approve the commission map and it is uncertain whether large Democratic majorities in both houses will accept a “least change” map. SC-6: Rep. Clyburn Steps Down from Leadership Post: In a written release, US Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) announced that he will be resigning his leadership position. Mr. Clyburn is currently the Assistant to the Majority Leader. While stepping down from the Democratic Leadership tree, the 83-year old veteran House member who is completing his 16th term in Congress additionally said that he will seek re-election to his Columbia anchored seat in the South Carolina delegation. News reports suggest that Colorado Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is a strong candidate to replace Mr. Clyburn as Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) Assistant. Missouri: Ashcroft Continues to Lead: Republican polling firm ARW Strategies conducted a survey of the Missouri GOP electorate (2/5-7; 611 MO likely Republican primary voters) and found Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, son of former US Senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft, continuing to lead the open gubernatorial field. According to the ARW results, Mr. Ashcroft leads Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) by a 36-13-13% margin. The findings are consistent with other previously conducted polls.
This survey, however, skews male (51.1%) and to those 65 years of age and older. This age demographic represents only 16% of the Missouri at-large population, but 46% in this particular poll. Incumbent Gov. Mike Parson (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. New Mexico: Ex-Sheriff Fails to Qualify for Senate Ballot: As we have seen in several places already in this election year, another potential candidate has been disqualified for failing to manage the petition signature requirement for ballot placement. Former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales (R) has failed to qualify for the June 4th Republican US Senate ballot according to the New Mexico Secretary of State, thus likely leaving former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici as the party’s lone contender.
Assuming the decision holds, the New Mexico Senate general election will feature Ms. Domenici, the daughter of former six-term US Senator Pete Domenici (R), and Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) who is seeking a third term. New Mexico is a Democratic state, so Sen. Heinrich is a clear favorite as the campaign officially starts, but Republicans believe that Ms. Domenici can become competitive. AZ-1: Another GOP Primary Challenger for Rep. Schweikert: Arizona US Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) close 2022 re-election contest has attracted a number of Democrats and Republicans into the 2024 campaign. Yesterday, former FBI agent Kim George (R) announced her candidacy. Also battling the Congressman for renomination are businessmen Robert Backie and P.T. Burton. The crowded field will likely help the Congressman win the August 6th plurality primary.
While businessman Jevin Hodge held Mr. Schweikert to a scant one-point general election victory he is not returning for a rematch, but no less than nine Democrats are running. Within this large group are former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherney, ex-state Rep. Amish Shah, and former news anchorwoman Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of former Attorney General Grant Woods (D). The politically marginal 1st District is fully contained within Maricopa County and carries an R+7 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The seat is ranked as the 18th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. President Biden carried this district by a bare 50.1 – 48.6% margin in the 2020 election. NJ-8: Internal Poll Finds Rep. Menendez Leading: Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla’s Democratic primary challenge to freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) may have lost some steam. Upon announcement, and at the height of Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D) legal trouble, Mr. Bhalla posted big fundraising numbers and appeared to mount some momentum toward unseating the younger Menendez in the June 4th primary. Rep. Menendez’s campaign yesterday released an internal poll to the New Jersey Globe newspaper, without identifying the pollster (1/25-2/1; 400 NJ-8 registered Democratic voters; live interview) but publicizing the favorable ballot test. According to this data, Rep. Menendez maintains a 46-24% advantage over Mayor Bhalla. This race still merits attention, particularly as Sen. Menendez continues to languish in statewide Democratic primary polling and is virtually a sure bet to lose the June election, assuming that he files a statement of candidacy at the end of next month. The Menendez campaign was quick to release one data point: 77% of the respondents agree that Rep. Menendez should be ‘judged on his own record, and not on that of his father.’ TN-7: Rep. Mark Green (R) to Retire: Yesterday, the second full committee chairman in less than a week announced that he will not seek re-election later this year. Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) joins Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) as the committee chairs most recently announcing their respective retirement. Reps. Kay Granger (R-TX) and Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who consecutively chair the Appropriations and Financial Services Committees, are also ending their long congressional careers. Rep. Green said he has accomplished his promised goals in the House with the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and the passage of the border bill earlier in this Congress. As chairman of Homeland Security, he was a key figure in both actions. South Carolina: Trump Expands Huge Lead: The international survey research firm YouGov, polling for CBS News (2/5-10; 1,483 SC registered voters; 1,001 SC likely Republican presidential primary voters; online) finds former President Trump expanding his previous ballot test lead over former UN Ambassador and ex-South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as the candidates move toward the February 24th Palmetto State GOP primary. Mr. Trump secured 65% of the poll respondents’ support versus 30% for Ms. Haley.
Mr. Trump does much better as to who would perform better on all associated issue questions with the exception of which candidate is most likable. In terms of committed support, 87% of the individuals who say they support Trump report that their vote is firm. A total of 78% of Haley voters say the same about their support. A convincing Trump South Carolina victory in her home state will effectively end the Haley campaign. Upcoming Primaries: Trump Way Ahead: The Morning Consult firm released the results of polls they conducted through key states with primaries on March 5, 12, and 19. The ballot tests are overwhelming in favor of former President Trump. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, and Ohio, Mr. Trump registers between 75 (Arizona) and 85% (Florida) of the Republican respondents. Ms. Haley posts support percentages only between 14 (Florida) and 20% (Illinois). Michigan: Craig Suspends Senate Campaign: For the second election in as many cycles, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) has ended a political campaign before the candidate filing process even concludes. Yesterday, Mr. Craig announced that he is suspending his statewide US Senate campaign but may instead turn to what could be an open Detroit Mayor’s race in 2025.
Mr. Craig departing the Senate race looks to be good news for former Congressman Mike Rogers (R). Also in the GOP race is ex-US Rep. Peter Meijer, while another former Congressman, Republican-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash, remains a potential entrant. The Michigan candidate filing deadline is April 23rd in association with the August 6th primary. US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is a prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination. NJ-9: Primary Averted: State Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) ended her primary challenge to veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) after all three of the county Democratic Party organizations that comprise the 9th District voted to slate the 14-term incumbent. Therefore, Rep. Pascrell, who is 87 years of age, will be a lock for the Democratic nomination and should again breeze to re-election in November.
New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District is anchored in Paterson and Passaic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+17. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-9 as the 84th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. NY-3: Suozzi Wins: Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) won a convincing 54-46% victory over Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip (R) last night even though five surveys from five different pollsters showed the race within a 1-4 point margin. Rep-Elect Suozzi converts the seat back to the Democratic column, making the partisan division in the House an even closer 219R – 213D with three vacancies. It is probable that when all of the vacancies are filled after completing special elections in late April (NY-26), May (CA-20), and June (OH-6), the House will sit at 221R – 214D heading into the regular 2024 elections. Once again, Democrats outperforming Republicans in early voting proved a reliable precursor as to which party had the electoral momentum, thus explaining how Suozzi exceeded the polling projections. Additionally, while poor weather was thought to keep the election day turnout low, it did not. A special election turnout of more than 174,000 voters is a strong display for any district. In comparison, just over 271,000 voted in the 2022 regular congressional election. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|