California: Garvey’s Momentum: A newly released California US Senate poll leads one to believe that the edge Republican Steve Garvey was developing for a potential second place jungle primary finish is already evaporating. The University of California at Berkeley’s Public Policy Institute of California released another of their regular Golden State surveys and the ballot test, while again projecting US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) capturing first place as he has in every poll, found Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) slipping past Mr. Garvey by a percentage point.
The timing of the release suggests that Porter may be gaining momentum, but a closer examination of the methodology suggests otherwise. Late last week, we reported upon an Emerson College California survey (2/16-18; 1,000 CA registered voters; 935 CA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) that found Schiff leading the group with a 28% preference figure with Garvey at 22%, Porter posting 16%, and US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 9% support. The Cal-Berkeley poll was then released later that showed Porter’s one point edge for the second qualifying position. Though released on February 23rd, The Cal-Berkeley poll was actually conducted during the February 6-13 period, thus showing that this data was derived a week before Emerson’s. Understanding the polling progression suggests that it is the Garvey momentum which appears to be real. North Dakota: Sen. Cramer Announces: First-term North Dakota Senator Ken Cramer (R) has been circumspect about whether or not he would seek a second term, even dropping retirement hints for almost a year. On Friday, he made his political plans public, and Sen. Cramer will be on the 2024 North Dakota ballot. He will have little in the way of either primary or general election opposition, so this is one more seat that will have an incumbent who is rated a prohibitive favorite. Comments are closed.
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