A new Pennsylvania Survey Research study (9/22-24; 401 PA-10 likely voters; live interview) shows Democratic congressional challenger and State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D) opening a lead beyond the polling margin of error. His seven-percentage point spread, 50-43%, over four-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg) clearly suggests that the incumbent is in position to lose what was formerly a safe Republican district.
A late August/early September poll from the GBAO research firm projected DePasquale to be holding a four-point edge suggesting that the Democrat has gained significant new support during the last month. This district was significantly changed in the 2017 state Supreme Court redistricting plan, making it much more Democratic. Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, located in the northern part of the state, gave President Trump an extra electoral vote in 2016, and he needs it again. Maine and Nebraska are the two state’s that split their electoral votes meaning that even if a candidate loses the statewide count, he or she can gain an extra vote by taking a congressional district.
In mid-September, Quinnipiac University released a survey (9/10-14; 476 ME-2 likely voters; live interview, online combination) that found Joe Biden leading President Trump by a surprisingly large nine percentage points, 53-44%. Late last week, we saw the third poll to refute those numbers, this one by Maine’s own Colby College (9/17-23; 425 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) that found the two candidates falling to within three points of each other, 46-43%. This confirms the other two latter September polls from Siena College/New York Times and Suffolk University. They both found the Biden leads at two and one point, respectively. The second Maine survey conducted mostly during the period since the Supreme Court vacancy became a national issue was just released. The timing also includes the day when Sen. Susan Collins (R) made her statement that she would not support a vote before the election. Colby College surveyed (conducted by the SocialSphere firm; 9/17-23; ME-2 likely voters; live interview, online combination) the Pine Tree State and finds state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport) leading the four-term incumbent, 45-41%. This is a better result for Ms. Gideon that the other post-vacancy poll, from Moore Information, that found the two candidates tied.
Maine employs the Ranked Choice Voting system for federal races. This means that some voters, i.e., those who vote for the candidate coming in last position, have their second choice counted. Colby College asked the second-choice question and found 46% of the respondents saying they had no alternative option. Among those who did, the voters broke evenly for the two major party candidates, with each gaining eight percentage points. A trio of research entities were in the field in Texas during the same period, September 15-22, and found Sen. John Cornyn (R) leading Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar in all instances but with different margins.
Data for Progress (9/15-22; 726 TX likely voters; web panel respondents) found the spread to be only 40-38%. Siena College/New York Times (9/16-22; 653 TX likely voters; live interview) saw a six-point margin, 43-37%. Finally, Quinnipiac University (9/17-21; 1,078 TX likely voters; live interview), produced the largest division, 50-42%, using the largest polling sample within the shortest time period. In May, California freshman Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) scored an impressive ten-point special election upset victory over state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D). A new poll suggests a much different regular election result, however. According to the Democratic firm, Normington Petts for the House Majority PAC (9/21-23; 400 CA-25 likely voters; live interview), Ms. Smith would lead the new Congressman, 48-45%, and 51-45% when those leaning to each candidate are added to the totals.
Last week, we reported on a bizarre situation occurring in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District that is resulting in postponing the general election to February 9th. With Legal Marijuana Now party nominee Adam Weeks unexpectedly passing, under Minnesota election law, the election is postponed if a major party candidate dies within 79 days of the general election. Surprisingly, under Minnesota election law, the Legal Marijuana Now party is classified as “major.”
Freshman Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan) on Friday sent a signal that she may be contesting the law. The official Secretary of State’s public position is that ballots cast in the 2nd District Congressional race on November 3rd will be discarded and not counted. Ms. Craig, in a message to supporters, instructed them to go ahead and vote in the regular general election as usual. Expect further action to occur shortly regarding this unique situation. A pair of new surveys in the Georgia special Senate election race find a three-way race evolving for the two positions available for the January 5th runoff election. It appears no chance exists for any candidate to attract majority support on November 3rd, meaning a secondary election will be required.
Siena College/New York Times and Data for Progress went into the field almost simultaneously and both found appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville), and Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock (D) all within range to capture either first or second position in the jungle primary that will be held concurrently with Election Day. Siena/NYT (9/16-21; 523 GA likely voters; live interview) projects Sen. Loeffler pulling 23% support, with both Rep. Collins and Rev. Warnock posting identical 19% support factors. Data for Progress (9/14-19; 800 GA likely voters) sees Rev. Warnock in first place with 26%, followed closely by Rep. Collins (22%) and Sen. Loeffler (21%). Leaners were added to the original totals for all candidates. Together, the polls tell us that no one can reach 50% on the first vote, and that a tough political dogfight is brewing for the two runoff positions. A new brilliant corners Research & Strategies survey (9/10-16; 605 AR-2 likely voters; 102 over-sample of African American voters) has produced results that show three-term Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) actually falling behind his Democratic challenger, state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D-Little Rock), by a two-point margin, 48-46%. This study follows a Hendrix College survey taken in earlier in September (9/4-9; 698 AR-2 likely voters) that found Mr. Hill leading the race with a similar 48-46% edge.
The brilliant corners’ over-sample of African Americans could explain the flip toward Ms. Elliott, but the long-term history of this district favors the Democrats. Republicans captured it for what appeared to be the foreseeable future with their win in 2010, but prior to that, the GOP had held the seat for only eight of the previous 136 years. An obscure law will take effect in this election because Legal Marijuana Now party nominee Adam Weeks unexpectedly passed away earlier this week. After the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) eleven days before the election in 2002, which led to a fast and haphazard special election to replace him, an updated law was subsequently enacted that requires a special election well after the national Election Day if a major party candidate dies within 79 days of the general election.
Surprisingly, under Minnesota election law, the Legal Marijuana Now party is classified as “major.” Therefore, the 2nd District election will now be decided in a special election on February 9th with a new Legal Marijuana Now nominee. This means incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan) will have a break in service as her term will expire at the end of the 116th Congress. This new schedule will cause a number of ramifications and likely be subject to a lawsuit. It is possible the Justice Department will step in, since the law appears to violate the federal statute that requires all states to hold federal elections on the national Election Day. Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) was first elected in 1996 and has had only one close re-election contest since, in 2010 when he received just 50.3% of the vote. President Trump, however, carried the district 49-45% in 2016, proving that a Republican can win here.
For the closing month, the Congressional Leadership Fund has decided to invest heavily here, reserving $2 million of media time in an effort to support Republican nominee Derrick Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL and Afghan War veteran. Rep. Kind is more than prepared for the challenge, however. Through the July 22nd Federal Election Commission pre-primary filing, the Congressman was showing more than $3 million cash-on-hand. |
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