Monmouth University, carrying an A rating from the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization as their tenth best pollster in the country, released their latest Virginia ballot test numbers (10/16-19; 1,005 VA registered voters; live interview). The results show a dead heat between former Governor Terry McAuliffe and ex-hedge fund CEO Glenn Youngkin with each candidate scoring 46% support.
Monmouth releases numbers based upon various turnout models. Under their most favorable Democratic model, McAuliffe leads by three points. Likewise for Youngkin under the commensurate Republican turnout model. The enthusiasm gap continues to favor the Republicans as they appear to have a seven-point advantage on the question. The Monmouth data finds Mr. Youngkin gaining and seemingly gaining the momentum as we head into the campaign’s final stretch.
The Rundown Blog
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