An Amber Integrated poll of the Oklahoma electorate (10/12-14; 500 OK registered voters; live interview and online panel) tested the 2022 Governor’s race featuring a likely general election pairing of Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, who switched from the Republican Party to the Democrats in order to run for Governor. According to the AI survey, Gov. Stitt opens with a 49-33% double-digit advantage.
Previous reports suggesting the Illinois Democratic leadership would attempt to draw a new congressional map to cost the Republicans two seats, and actually a net three when considering the state loses a district in reapportionment, proved accurate. The released map would create a 14D-3R plan in the state, meaning potential Republican incumbent pairings in the downstate region. The map could be vulnerable to a racial gerrymandering lawsuit as well as a political action when seeing that drawing a second Hispanic seat in Chicago is numerically possible but not done
The new Virginia Redistricting Commission members released their first congressional map, which surprised most observers. Despite the Virginia electorate’s leftward turn in the most recent elections, the published congressional map could yield six Republican seats and five Democratic. If this map were to stand, the draw would likely mean a one seat Republican gain, and possibly two. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) would be the most endangered Democrat and Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D-Norfolk) would find herself in a district that slightly tilts to the Republicans. Therefore, on paper, the map would break 5D-5R with one swing seat.
With veteran Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) retiring, his 3rd Congressional District becomes a ripe Republican conversion target. Democrats are signaling that they will form a consensus behind state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-Onalaska) as Republicans appear certain to re-nominate their 2020 candidate, retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden who held Rep. Kind to a tight 51-49% re-election victory, the closest win of his 26-year congressional career. On Friday, Rep. Kind officially endorsed Sen. Pfaff as his successor, signaling that the Democratic establishment will back the latter man as their new standard bearer. The Pfaff-Van Orden race will become a national congressional campaign.
The open Oregon gubernatorial campaign started slowly, but action has now accelerated. In the Democratic race are state Treasurer Tobias Read, state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D-Portland), national columnist Nick Kristof, and Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla. Now, Democratic state Senator Betsy Johnson (D-Scappoose/Sauvie Island) has entered the race, but she will run as an Independent. The most formidable Republican candidate appears to be Dr. Bud Pierce, M.D., the Republicans’ 2016 gubernatorial nominee. The eventual Democratic nominee will be the favorite in the general election. Gov. Kate Brown (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
A new pair of VA Governor polls were released, from Fox News and the Trafalgar Group. The Fox Poll (10/10-13; 726 VA likely voters; live interview) actually gives former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) his best showing in recent weeks. The ballot test projects the ex-Governor over 50% with a lead beyond the polling margin of error: 51-46%, over Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin.
Trafalgar finds virtually the exact opposite result. The poll (10/11-13; 1,095 VA likely voters; live interview, online, and text) pushes Mr. Youngkin into the lead, only the second poll since August began to do so, by a slim 48-47% margin. The polling continues to provide data suggesting that the Virginia race is tight and it will be decided through the eventual turnout model. House Budget Committee chairman John Yarmuth (D-Louisville) yesterday announced that he will not seek re-election to a 9th term in the House next year. Though redistricting is not yet complete in Kentucky, it is likely Mr. Yarmuth’s retirement will not change the configuration of the next congressional map and the Louisville anchored 3rd District will remain as a the state’s one solid Democratic seat.
Rep. Yarmuth’s retirement means there will be 23 open seats in the 2022 election cycle, adding the seven new reapportionment seats and not counting the three that are currently in special elections. Of the 16 opens involving current members, both parties risk eight seats. The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission released a series of ten congressional and state legislative maps, of which the public will be allowed to comment upon during hearings that will last through October 29th. The four congressional maps radically change the districts and could force several incumbent pairings either for the general election or respective party primaries. Michigan loses one seat in reapportionment, so at least one sitting member will not return next year.
The process is far from complete, and much will still happen until the maps are completed on or around November 1st. The maps suggest that the Republicans will lose one seat through the draw, though several become more competitive suggesting that the final outcome will be unclear until the various district electorates cast their ballots. Two-term Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon) announced yesterday that he will seek re-election to a third term in the US House and not run for Governor. While Rep. Meuser was often included on the lists of potential gubernatorial candidates, he made no definitive move toward running statewide. He was re-elected in 2020 with 66% of the vote last November.
Marist College conducted a poll of the New York electorate, including a subset Democratic primary survey (10/4-7; 822 NY adults; 389 NY likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), and found new Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) performing well. Within the sample as a whole, the Governor holds a 49:31% positive job approval ratio despite a majority, 54%, who say they believe New York is headed down the wrong track.
Matching the Governor with potential Democratic primary opponents, she would lead Attorney General Letitia James and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, 44-28-15%, respectively, if the election were today. Gov. Hochul has a substantial lead, but she is nowhere near 50%, suggesting that she has some vulnerability with a great deal of time remaining before the June 28, 2022 New York primary election. |
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