Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who has long been considered the consensus Democratic candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Tom Wolf (D), will officially announce his gubernatorial campaign later today. Mr. Shapiro is not expected to draw any significant Democratic primary opposition. Republicans feature a crowded field for a 2022 open race that could become highly competitive.
The September 30th Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports are due October 15th, but many candidates are releasing their figures early. Such is the case for two Pennsylvania Senate competitors.
US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) says his campaign raised $1.2 million for the quarter with $2.2 million cash-on-hand, some of which was transferred from his US House campaign committee. Republican Sean Parnell will report similar numbers. His campaign raised $1.1 million for the quarter and posts $1 million cash-on-hand. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), the money leader by a wide margin in the June 30th reporting period, has yet to publicize his 3rd quarter fundraising totals. Messers. Lamb and Parnell opposed each other in the 17th Congressional District race last year, with the incumbent recording a close 51-49% victory. There is a high correlation in redistricting years between key state legislative redistricting figures and candidates who run for newly drawn congressional seats. We again see this pattern emerging in Oregon. Late last week, Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Lake Oswego) announced that she will run for the state’s new 6th District, the seat that touches the outer Portland suburbs and moves southwest toward the state capital of Salem. Ms. Salinas was co-chair of the House Special Committee on Redistricting that drew the district.
The new seat leans Democratic, but not to the point of producing a non-competitive general election. Therefore, we can expect this seat to generate contested primaries in both parties and feature a relatively tight general election finish. Freshman Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) not only came through a hard fought 2020 general election campaign, but he barely won the GOP nomination. In the Republican runoff, Mr. Gonzales defeated homebuilder Raul Reyes by just 45 votes, in a result that took weeks to confirm. Mr. Reyes, who had not ruled out again challenging Rep. Gonzales, has made his political decision for 2022. He will run for the state Senate.
Because this expansive west Texas congressional district that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso is politically marginal and will likely remain so post redistricting, Rep. Gonzales building a united Republican base is a must for re-election. Mr. Reyes not running again certainly helps the new incumbent achieve this important preliminary goal. Christopher Newport University again tested the Virginia electorate for the upcoming 2021 Governor’s race (9/27-10/6; 802 VA likely voters; live interview) but found little movement despite Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin heavily attacking opponent Terry McAuliffe’s (D) debate comments saying that parents should “not tell the schools what to teach.” According to the ballot test, McAuliffe leads Youngkin, 49-45%, which is consistent with almost all other previously released polls. The most recent Emerson College survey that was published last week, however, found just a one-point split between the two.
The most positive Republican finding in the Christopher Newport poll comes from the enthusiasm question responses. There, the GOP has a six-point advantage, which could yield a closer finish than the ballot test suggests. There had been a rumor floating around Capitol Hill that after the infrastructure and reconciliation legislation has been dispensed with that President Biden was going to appoint Speaker Nancy Pelosi as Ambassador to the Holy See and she would resign her current position and House seat. President Biden’s move yesterday disproves such a rumor. Instead of Speaker Pelosi, the President appointed former Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly (D) to represent the United States at the Vatican.
Mr. Donnelly served one term in the Senate, winning in 2012 but losing his re-election six years later to current Sen. Mike Braun (R). Prior to becoming a Senator, Mr. Donnelly was elected to three terms in the House from Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District. Yesterday, former three-term Collin County Judge Keith Self filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission, signaling that he will challenge Texas Rep. Van Taylor (R-Plano) in next year’s Republican primary. A County Judge in Texas is equivalent to a County Executive in most other places. Collin County comprises approximately 90% of what could become the new 3rd District under the published redistricting plan. Therefore, should Mr. Self follow through and file his candidacy, this GOP primary will feature two well known individuals battling for the party nomination.
Former Colleyville City Councilman Chris Putnam, who challenged veteran Rep. Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth) in the 2020 Republican primary and lost 58-42%, is returning for a re-match. Mr. Putnam says he will report raising $180,000 in the quarter ending September 30th and has added an additional $250,000 of this own money for a grand total of $430,000. In 2020, Mr. Putnam spent over $1.25 million on his campaign. Rep. Granger, first elected to the House in 1996 and the Ranking Republican Member of the House Appropriations Committee, is expected to run for a 13th term.
Speculation fueled by a union-backed political action committee promoting Maine Senate President Troy Jackson (D-Allagash) as a Democratic primary opponent for Gov. Janet Mills has ended. Sen. Jackson has made clear that he is not running for Governor and formally endorsed Ms. Mills for re-election to a second term. Without Sen. Jackson in the field, it appears Gov. Mills will have an easy run through the Democratic primary and look to face former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in the general election.
Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) is not seeking a second term, which has drawn a large field of 14 candidates vying to become her successor. Survey USA went into the field to test the Atlanta electorate (9/28-10/5; 650 adults; 544 Atlanta likely Mayoral election voters; interactive voice response system & text) and found former Mayor Kasim Reed topping the field but with only 18% support. Mr. Reed served two terms as Mayor from 2010 through 2018, yielding to Ms. Bottoms because of a consecutive term limit law. Prior to becoming Mayor, Mr. Reed served in both the Georgia House of Representatives and state Senate.
In second position with 8% support is Atlanta City Council President Felicia Moore. All other candidates fail to reach the 6% mark. The election is November 2nd, and all candidates appear on the same ballot. If no one reaches 50%, and this poll finds none of the candidates coming close to doing so, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on November 30th. |
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